Models of forest dynamics based on roles of tree species

A linkage between the two major modeling approaches to forest dynamics, transition Markovian models and JABOWA-FORET type simulators, is generated by developing a compact model of forest dynamics. This patch transition model utilizes functional roles instead of species. The roles or types are based on the regeneration and mortality characteristics of tree species; specifically, the requirements of canopy gaps for regeneration and the capacity to create canopy gaps upon death. A gap-size plot can be assigned to each of a set of states defined according to dominance of one of the roles. Transition probabilities among these states and mean holding times in each transition lead to semi-Markovian analytical calculations of the stationary state probabilities. Forest dynamics, as the proportions of total canopy space occupied by each role in a collection of gap-size plots, can be analyzed and simulated using a chain of first-order differential equations to emulate the distributed time-delays. Additional fixed time-delays in the transition of every pair of states is also included to account for long latencies. In addition to simplifying the simulations, the resulting model can also utilize available results of the theory of semi-Markov processes; and therefore, can provide analytical guidance to the simulations, the feasibility of direct exploration of hypothesis and the possibility of fast computation from closed-form solutions and formulae. These advantages can especially be useful in the simulation of landscape dynamics and species-rich tropical forests.

Duke Scholars

Author Dean L. Urban Environmental Sciences and Policy