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Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Murphy, AH; Winkler, RL
Published in: Bulletin American Meteorological Society
January 1, 1979

The case for an operational program involving the formulation and dissemination of probabilistic temperature forecasts is presented. First, the need for information concerning the uncertainity in temperature forecasts is discussed, and examples of formal and informal decision-making situations in which such information would be useful are described. The results of experiments in probabilistic temperature forecasting are then reviewed, and it is concluded that experienced weather forecasters can quantify the uncertainity inherent in temperature forecasts in a reliable and skillful manner. Finally, the essential components of an operational probabilistic temperature forecasting program are outlined, and some suggestions are made regarding specific temperature events that should receive probabilistic treatment on an operational basis. -Author

Duke Scholars

Published In

Bulletin American Meteorological Society

Publication Date

January 1, 1979

Volume

60

Issue

1

Start / End Page

12 / 19
 

Citation

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Murphy, A. H., & Winkler, R. L. (1979). Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 60(1), 12–19.
Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program.Bulletin American Meteorological Society 60, no. 1 (January 1, 1979): 12–19.
Murphy AH, Winkler RL. Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program. Bulletin American Meteorological Society. 1979 Jan 1;60(1):12–9.
Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program.Bulletin American Meteorological Society, vol. 60, no. 1, Jan. 1979, pp. 12–19.
Murphy AH, Winkler RL. Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program. Bulletin American Meteorological Society. 1979 Jan 1;60(1):12–19.

Published In

Bulletin American Meteorological Society

Publication Date

January 1, 1979

Volume

60

Issue

1

Start / End Page

12 / 19