Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results.
Publication
, Journal Article
Winkler, RL; Murphy, AH
January 1, 1979
An experiment was conducted in which NWS forecasters at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) expressed forecasts of tornado occurrence and intensity in probabilistic terms. These forecasts were formulated in conjunction with the regular outlooks and watches prepared by NSSFC forecasters. The forecasters assessed the probability of one or more tornadoes in the outlook area(s) and the probability of ten or more tornadoes in the U.S.A. The results showed that the forecasters were reasonably successful in quantifying the uncertainty in the outlook forecasts. (from paper)
Duke Scholars
Publication Date
January 1, 1979
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Winkler, R. L., & Murphy, A. H. (1979). Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results.
Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results.,” January 1, 1979.
Winkler RL, Murphy AH. Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results. 1979 Jan 1;
Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results. Jan. 1979.
Winkler RL, Murphy AH. Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results. 1979 Jan 1;
Publication Date
January 1, 1979