An Analysis of Changes in the Risk of Mortality from Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease, 1968‐1977

Nonlinear hazard models are used to examine temporal trends in the age‐specific mortality risks of chronic obstructive lung diseases for the U.S. population. These hazard functions are fit to age‐specific mortality rates for 1968 and 1977 for four race/sex groups. Changes in the parameters of these models are used to assess two types of differences in the age pattern of the rates between 1968 and 1977. The first measure of trend in the age‐specific mortality rates is the temporal change in the proportionality constant in the function used to model their age variation. By allowing only this proportionality parameter to vary between 1968 and 1977, it is possible to determine an age‐constant percentage increase or decrease. The second measure reflects the absolute displacement in terms of years of life of the fitted mortality curves for the two time points. This second index can be interpreted as the acceleration or deceleration of mortality risks over the life span, i.e., the number of years that is needed for mortality rates to achieve the same level as in the comparison group. The analysis showed that the age changes in chronic obstructive lung disease mortality rates differed by race/sex group and for both measures of change over the period. Adjustment of the fitted curves for the effects of individual variability in risk was significant for three of four groups. Copyright © 1982, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved

Duke Scholars

Author Kenneth G. Manton Demographic Studies