Association of smoking cessation and weight change with cardiovascular disease among adults with and without diabetes.

IMPORTANCE: Smoking cessation reduces the risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but weight gain that follows quitting smoking may weaken the CVD benefit of quitting. OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that weight gain following smoking cessation does not attenuate the benefits of smoking cessation among adults with and without diabetes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Prospective community-based cohort study using data from the Framingham Offspring Study collected from 1984 through 2011. At each 4-year examination, self-reported smoking status was assessed and categorized as smoker, recent quitter (≤ 4 years), long-term quitter (>4 years), and nonsmoker. Pooled Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between quitting smoking and 6-year CVD events and to test whether 4-year change in weight following smoking cessation modified the association between smoking cessation and CVD events. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence over 6 years of total CVD events, comprising coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular events, peripheral artery disease, and congestive heart failure. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 25 (SD, 9.6) years, 631 CVD events occurred among 3251 participants. Median 4-year weight gain was greater for recent quitters without diabetes (2.7 kg [interquartile range {IQR}, -0.5 to 6.4]) and with diabetes (3.6 kg [IQR, -1.4 to 8.2]) than for long-term quitters (0.9 kg [IQR, -1.4 to 3.2] and 0.0 kg [IQR, -3.2 to 3.2], respectively, P < .001). Among participants without diabetes, age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate of CVD was 5.9 per 100 person-examinations (95% CI, 4.9-7.1) in smokers, 3.2 per 100 person-examinations (95% CI, 2.1-4.5) in recent quitters, 3.1 per 100 person-examinations (95% CI, 2.6-3.7) in long-term quitters, and 2.4 per 100 person-examinations (95% CI, 2.0-3.0) in nonsmokers. After adjustment for CVD risk factors, compared with smokers, recent quitters had a hazard ratio (HR) for CVD of 0.47 (95% CI, 0.23-0.94) and long-term quitters had an HR of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.34-0.63); these associations had only a minimal change after further adjustment for weight change. Among participants with diabetes, there were similar point estimates that did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this community-based cohort, smoking cessation was associated with a lower risk of CVD events among participants without diabetes, and weight gain that occurred following smoking cessation did not modify this association. This supports a net cardiovascular benefit of smoking cessation, despite subsequent weight gain.

Duke Scholars

Author Michael J Pencina Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics