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Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Zhu, K; Woodall, CW; Ghosh, S; Gelfand, AE; Clark, JS
Published in: Global change biology
January 2014

Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate-mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental-scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance-climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large-scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile-adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.

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Published In

Global change biology

DOI

EISSN

1365-2486

ISSN

1354-1013

Publication Date

January 2014

Volume

20

Issue

1

Start / End Page

251 / 264

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Trees
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Ecology
  • Climate Change
  • Biodiversity
  • 41 Environmental sciences
  • 37 Earth sciences
  • 31 Biological sciences
  • 06 Biological Sciences
 

Citation

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Zhu, K., Woodall, C. W., Ghosh, S., Gelfand, A. E., & Clark, J. S. (2014). Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history. Global Change Biology, 20(1), 251–264. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12382
Zhu, Kai, Christopher W. Woodall, Souparno Ghosh, Alan E. Gelfand, and James S. Clark. “Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history.Global Change Biology 20, no. 1 (January 2014): 251–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12382.
Zhu K, Woodall CW, Ghosh S, Gelfand AE, Clark JS. Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history. Global change biology. 2014 Jan;20(1):251–64.
Zhu, Kai, et al. “Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history.Global Change Biology, vol. 20, no. 1, Jan. 2014, pp. 251–64. Epmc, doi:10.1111/gcb.12382.
Zhu K, Woodall CW, Ghosh S, Gelfand AE, Clark JS. Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history. Global change biology. 2014 Jan;20(1):251–264.
Journal cover image

Published In

Global change biology

DOI

EISSN

1365-2486

ISSN

1354-1013

Publication Date

January 2014

Volume

20

Issue

1

Start / End Page

251 / 264

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Trees
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Ecology
  • Climate Change
  • Biodiversity
  • 41 Environmental sciences
  • 37 Earth sciences
  • 31 Biological sciences
  • 06 Biological Sciences