Risk of type 2 diabetes and cumulative excess weight exposure in the Framingham Offspring Study.

AIM: Mid-life obesity is associated with T2D risk. However, less is known about the cumulative effect of obesity during adulthood. METHODS: Framingham Offspring Study participants who had an examination at 35±2 years and were initially free of T2D were included in this study (N=1026). A cumulative excess weight (CEW) score (year*kg/m²) was calculated until T2D diagnostic or the end of follow-up. RESULTS: Eighty-four individuals (8.2%) developed T2D over 20±6 years. Mean CEW scores were 118.0±114.6 year*kg/m² in individuals who developed T2D and 30.2±91.4 year*kg/m² in those who did not develop T2D (P<0.01). T2D risk was doubled for each standard deviation increase in the CEW score (OR=1.99 [1.64-2.40]; P<0.001). However, CEW score was only significantly associated with T2D incidence for participants with a baseline BMI <25 kg/m² (OR =2.13 [1.36-3.36]; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Accumulating weight between the mid-thirties to the mid-fifties increases the risk of developing T2D. However, BMI in mid-thirties remains a stronger predictor of T2D risk.

Duke Scholars

Author Michael J Pencina Biostatistics & Bioinformatics, Division of Biostatistics