Political issues and the Dynamics of vote choice in 2008

The 2008 American presidential contest occurred amidst economic conditions unlike any seen in decades. Media assessments have often attributed Barack Obama's victory to the faltering economy, particularly the financial crisis that erupted just seven weeks before election day. In this article we assess the role of the economy and other political issues on vote choice, and find that the impact of the economic crisis is more nuanced than is often assumed. We find that while the economy did matter for the general election, so too did social issues. More interestingly, the collapse itself seemed to have only a minor impact because so many people had already made up their minds before the collapse. Finally, we show that while Obama benefited from the economy in the general election, it may have actually worked against him in the primary phase of the contest. © 2010 Elections, Public Opinion & Parties.

Duke Scholars

Author D. Sunshine Hillygus Political Science