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Cosmin L. Ilut

Professor of Economics
Economics
Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708-0097
238 Social Sciences, Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708

Scholarly Works - Journal articles


Diagnostic Business Cycles

Journal article Review of Economic Studies · January 1, 2024 A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers' forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news. We adopt the diagnostic expectations (DE) paradigm [Bordalo et al. (2018), Journal of Finance, ... Full text Cite

Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers

Journal article Quarterly Journal of Economics · February 1, 2023 We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System 1) and analytical (System 2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constraine ... Full text Cite

Slow to hire, quick to fire: Employment dynamics with asymmetric responses to news

Journal article Journal of Political Economy · October 1, 2018 Featured Publication Concave hiring rules imply that firms respond more to bad shocks than to good shocks. They provide a unified explanation for several seemingly unrelated facts about employment growth in macro-and microdata. In particular, they generate countercyclical move ... Full text Open Access Cite

Evidence for Relational Contracts in Sovereign Bank Lending

Journal article Journal of the European Economic Association · September 29, 2015 Link to item Cite

Ambiguous Business Cycles

Journal article American Economic Review · August 2014 Full text Open Access Cite