Michael Ward | Scholars@Duke

Michael Ward
Professor Emeritus of Political Science

Current Appointments & Affiliations

Professor Emeritus of Political Science, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2017

Contact Information

140 Science Drive, 294E Gross, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708-0204
michael.d.ward@duke.edu (919) 660-4373
http://www.duke.edu/web/methods

Background
Education, Training, & Certifications
- Ph.D., Northwestern University 1977
- B.A., Indiana University at Indianapolis 1970
Duke Appointment History
- Professor of Political Science, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2010 - 2017
- Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Political Science, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2010 - 2013
Recognition
In the News
- MAR 24, 2014 The New York Times
  
  News Analysis: Spreadsheets and global mayhem
- FEB 17, 2014 The Verge
  
  This algorithm can predict a revolution
Awards & Honors
- Residency Fellow. Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences. 2013
Research
Selected Grants
- III: Small: Cumulon: Easy and Efficient Statistical Big-Data Analysis in the Cloud awarded by National Science Foundation 2013 - 2017
- Collaborative Research: Automated Real-time Production of Political Indicators awarded by National Science Foundation 2013 - 2017
- Validation for Split-Population Duration IED Models awarded by Office of Naval Research 2015 - 2016
- Improving Predictions of IED: Split Population Risk Modeling awarded by Office of Naval Research 2012 - 2015
- Phase II of Phase VI Analytics in Support of the Political Instability Task Force awarded by Science Applications International Corporation 2013 - 2014
Publications & Artistic Works
Selected Publications
- Books
  - Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. Spatial Regression Models (in Chinese). Edited by T Lao. Sage Publications & Truth and Wisdom Press, 2012.
  - Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. Analyzing dependencies in geo-economics and geo-politics. October 30, 2008. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. Spatial Regression Models. SAGE, February 29, 2008.
  - Ward, MD. The New Geopolitics. Taylor & Francis, January 1, 1992.
  - Ward, M. Power in World Politics. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1989.
  - Dynamic Approaches to International Conflict. Edited by MD Ward and U Luterbacher. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1985.
  - Guetzkow, HS, and Ward, MD. Theories, models, and simulations in international relations. Westview Pr, 1985.
  - Ward, MD. Research gaps in alliance dynamics. Denver Monograph Series in World Affairs, 1982.
  - Ward, MD. The Political Economy of Distribution. North Holland, New York: Elsevier, 1978.
- Academic Articles
  - Hollenbach, FM, Bojinov, I, Minhas, S, Metternich, NW, Ward, MD, and Volfovsky, A. "Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas(Accepted)." Sociological Methods and Research (January 1, 2018). Full Text
  - Beger, A, Hill, DW, Metternich, NW, Minhas, S, and Ward, MD. "Splitting it up: The spduration split-population duration regression package for time-varying covariates." R Journal 9, no. 2 (December 1, 2017): 474-486.
  - Metternich, NW, Minhas, S, and Ward, MD. "Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 6 (July 1, 2017): 1151-1173. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Beger, A. "Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes." Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 2 (January 1, 2017): 141-156. Full Text
  - Beger, A, Dorff, CL, and Ward, MD. "Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models." International Journal of Forecasting 32, no. 1 (January 1, 2016): 98-111. Full Text
  - Minhas, S, Hoff, PD, and Ward, MD. "A new approach to analyzing coevolving longitudinal networks in international relations." Journal of Peace Research 53, no. 3 (January 1, 2016): 491-505. Full Text
  - Minhas, S, Ulfelder, J, and Ward, MD. "Mining texts to efficiently generate global data on political regime types." Research and Politics 2, no. 3 (July 1, 2015). Full Text
  - Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences." International Journal of Forecasting 31, no. 3 (July 1, 2015): 930-942. Full Text
  - Beger, A, Dorff, CL, and Ward, MD. "Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change." Research and Politics 1, no. 3 (October 1, 2014). Full Text
  - Bakke, KM, O'Loughlin, J, Toal, G, and Ward, MD. "Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating Internal Legitimacy in Abkhazia." International Studies Quarterly 58, no. 3 (January 1, 2014): 591-607. Full Text
  - Cao, X, and Ward, MD. "Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment? Transnational Portfolio Investments Modeled as Dynamic Network." International Interactions 40, no. 2 (January 1, 2014): 216-245. Full Text
  - Dorff, C, and Ward, MD. "Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model." Political Science Research and Methods 1, no. 02 (December 2013): 159-178. Full Text
  - Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Aggregation and ensembles: Principled combinations of data." Ps Political Science and Politics 46, no. 1 (February 1, 2013): 43-44. Full Text
  - Bakke, KM, O'Loughlin, J, Toal, G, and Ward, MD. "Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating Internal Legitimacy in Abkhazia(Accepted)." International Studies Quarterly (2013). Full Text
  - Cao, X, and WARD, MD. "Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment? Transnational Portfolio Investments Modeled as Dynamic Network." International Interactions 39 (2013): in press-in press. (Academic Article)
  - Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future: Using contentious issues to forecast interstate disputes." Journal of Peace Research 50, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 17-31. Full Text
  - Metternich, NW, Dorff, C, Gallop, M, Weschle, S, and Ward, MD. "Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior." American Journal of Political Science 57, no. 4 (January 1, 2013): 892-911. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, Ahlquist, JS, and Rozenas, A. "Gravity's Rainbow: A dynamic latent space model for the world trade network." Network Science 1, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 95-118. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, Metternich, NW, Dorff, CL, Gallop, M, Hollenbach, FM, Schultz, A, and Weschle, S. "Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction." International Studies Review (2013).
  - Ward, MD, Metternich, NW, Dorff, CL, Gallop, M, Hollenbach, FM, Schultz, A, and Weschle, S. "Learning from the past and stepping into the future: Toward a new generation of conflict prediction." International Studies Review 15, no. 4 (January 1, 2013): 473-490. (Review) Full Text
  - Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Ensemble predictions of the 2012 US presidential election." Ps Political Science and Politics 45, no. 4 (October 1, 2012): 651-654. Full Text
  - Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Improving predictions using ensemble bayesian model averaging." Political Analysis 20, no. 3 (July 1, 2012): 271-291. Full Text
  - Ward, MD. "Networks of Nations: The Evolution, Structure, and Impact of International Networks, 1816-2001." PERSPECTIVES ON POLITICS 10, no. 1 (March 2012): 224-225. Full Text Link to Item
  - Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election." PS: Political Science and Politics 45, no. 4 (2012): 651-654. Full Text Link to Item
  - Greenhill, B, Ward, MD, and Sacks, A. "The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models." American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 4 (October 1, 2011): 991-1002. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, Stovel, K, and Sacks, A. "Network analysis and political science." Annual Review of Political Science 14 (June 15, 2011): 245-264. Full Text
  - Weidmann, NB, and Ward, MD. "Erratum to: Predicting Conflict in Space and Time(Journal of Conflict Resolution, (2010), 54, 6 (883-901), 10.1177/0022002710371669)." Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, no. 2 (April 1, 2011): 321-null. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, Greenhill, BD, and Bakke, KM. "The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 4 (July 1, 2010): 363-375. Full Text
  - Raftery, AE, and Ward, MD. "Special issue on statistical methods for the social sciences: Guest editors' introduction." Statistical Methodology 7, no. 3 (May 1, 2010): 173-174. Full Text
  - Greenhill, BD, Ward, MD, and Bakke, KM. "Perils of Policy by P-Value: Predicting Civil Conflicts." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 4 (2010): 1-13. (Academic Article)
  - Weidmann, NB, and Ward, MD. "Predicting conflict in space and time." Journal of Conflict Resolution 54, no. 6 (January 1, 2010): 883-901. Full Text
  - Bakke, KM, O'Loughlin, J, and Ward, MD. "Reconciliation in conflict-affected societies: Multilevel modeling of individual and contextual factors in the North Caucasus of Russia." Annals of the Association of American Geographers 99, no. 5 (November 27, 2009): 1012-1021. Full Text
  - Bakke, KM, Cao, X, O'Loughlin, J, and Ward, MD. "Social distance in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the North Caucasus region of Russia: Inter and intra-ethnic attitudes and identities." Nations and Nationalism 15, no. 2 (April 3, 2009): 227-253. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, Siverson, RM, and Cao, X. "Disputes, democracies, and dependencies: A reexamination of the Kantian peace." American Journal of Political Science 51, no. 3 (July 1, 2007): 583-601. Full Text
  - Cao, X, Prakash, A, and Ward, MD. "Protecting jobs in the age of globalization: Examining the relative salience of social welfare and industrial subsidies in OECD countries." International Studies Quarterly 51, no. 2 (June 1, 2007): 301-327. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. "Persistent patterns of international commerce." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 2 (March 1, 2007): 157-175. Full Text
  - Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Diffusion and the international context of democratization." International Organization 60, no. 4 (October 1, 2006): 911-933. (Review) Full Text
  - Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization." International Organization 60, no. 4 (2006): 911-933. Full Text Link to Item
  - Hoff, PD, and Ward, MD. "Modeling dependencies in international relations networks." Political Analysis 12, no. 2 (March 1, 2004): 160-175. (Review) Full Text
  - Siverson, RM, and Ward, MD. "The long peace: A reconsideration." International Organization 56, no. 3 (June 1, 2002). (Review) Full Text
  - Ward, MD. "Triangulating peace: Democracy, interdependence, and international organization." COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES 35, no. 4 (May 2002): 484-488. Full Text Link to Item
  - Ward, MD. "Green binders in cyberspace: A modest proposal." Comparative Political Studies 35, no. 1 (February 1, 2002): 46-51. Full Text
  - Heagerty, P, Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. "Windows of Opportunity: Window Subseries Empirical Variance Estimators in International Relations." Political Analysis 10, no. 03 (2002): 304-317. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. "Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace." Political Analysis 10, no. 03 (2002): 244-260. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and O'Loughlin, J. "Spatial Processes and Political Methodology: Introduction to the Special Issue." Political Analysis 10, no. 03 (2002): 211-216. Full Text
  - Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Measuring space: A minimum-distance database and applications to international studies." Journal of Peace Research 38, no. 6 (January 1, 2001): 739-758. Full Text
  - Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "War and peace in space and time: The role of democratization." International Studies Quarterly 44, no. 1 (January 1, 2000): 1-29. Full Text
  - Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "A revised list of independent states since the congress of Vienna." International Interactions 25, no. 4 (January 1, 1999): 393-413. Full Text
  - Shin, M, and Ward, MD. "Lost in space: Political geography and the defense-growth trade-off." Journal of Conflict Resolution 43, no. 6 (January 1, 1999): 793-817. Full Text
  - Cohen, JS, and Ward, MD. "Great expectations: Russian defence conversion." Defence and Peace Economics 9, no. 4 (January 1, 1998): 381-394. Full Text
  - O'Loughlin, J, Ward, MD, Lofdahl, CL, Cohen, JS, Brown, DS, Reilly, D, Gleditsch, KS, and Shin, M. "The diffusion of democracy, 1946-1994." Annals of the Association of American Geographers 88, no. 4 (January 1, 1998): 545-574. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. "Democratizing for peace." American Political Science Review 92, no. 1 (January 1, 1998): 51-61. Full Text
  - Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Double take: A reexamination of democracy and autocracy in modern polities." Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, no. 3 (January 1, 1997): 361-383. Full Text
  - Cohen, JS, Stevenson, R, Mintz, A, and Ward, MD. "Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Israel: The Indirect Link." Journal of Peace Research 33, no. 3 (January 1, 1996): 341-352. Full Text
  - Fontanel, J, Borissova, I, and Ward, M. "The principles of arms conversion in the case of Russia." Defence and Peace Economics 6, no. 3 (November 1995): 237-251. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, Cohen, JS, and Betsill, MM. "The three faces of conversion in the usa." Defence and Peace Economics 6, no. 3 (November 1, 1995): 221-235. Full Text
  - WARD, MD. "ALLIES, ADVERSARIES, AND INTERNATIONAL-TRADE - GOWA,J." AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW 89, no. 3 (September 1995): 802-803. Full Text Link to Item
  - Ward, MD, Penubarti, M, Cohen, JS, and Lofdahl, CL. "Guns and growth around the globe." International Interactions 21, no. 2 (March 1995): 181-201. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, Davis, DR, and Lofdahl, CL. "A century of tradeoffs: defense and growth in Japan and the United States." International Studies Quarterly 39, no. 1 (January 1, 1995): 27-50. Full Text
  - Gibson, ML, and Ward, MD. "Export orientation: pathway or artifact?." International Studies Quarterly 36, no. 3 (January 1, 1992): 331-344. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Davis, DR. "Sizing up the Peace Dividend: Economic Growth and Military Spending in the United States, 1948–1996." American Political Science Review 86, no. 3 (January 1, 1992): 748-755. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Rajmaira, S. "Reciprocity and Norms in U.S.-Soviet Foreign Policy." Journal of Conflict Resolution 36, no. 2 (January 1, 1992): 342-368. Full Text
  - Kirby, A, and Ward, MD. "Modernity and the process of state formation: An examination of 20th century Africa." International Interactions 17, no. 1 (May 1991): 113-126. Full Text
  - Rajmaira, S, and Ward, MD. "Evolving Foreign Policy Norms: Reciprocity in the Superpower Triad." International Studies Quarterly 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 457-457. Full Text
  - Davis, DR, and Ward, MD. "They Dance Alone: Deaths and the Disappeared in Contemporary Chile." Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 3 (January 1, 1990): 449-475. Full Text
  - Davis, DR, and Ward, MD. "The Entrepreneurial State: Evidence from Taiwan." Comparative Political Studies 23, no. 3 (January 1, 1990): 314-333. Full Text
  - Mintz, A, and Ward, MD. "The political economy of military spending in Israel." American Political Science Review 83, no. 2 (January 1, 1989): 521-533. Full Text
  - Ward, MD. "Things fall apart: A logical analysis of crisis resolution dynamics." International Interactions 15, no. 1 (December 1, 1988): 65-79. Full Text
  - House, LL, and Ward, MD. "The behavioral power of nations: an analysis of verbal conflict using the equations of statistical equilibrium." Quality and Quantity 22, no. 2 (June 1, 1988): 167-189. Full Text
  - Ward, MD. "Software Reviews : PC-Globe." Social Science Computer Review 6, no. 1 (April 1988): 163-164. Full Text
  - Mintz, A, and Ward, MD. "The Evolution of Israel's Military Expenditures: 1960-1983." The Western Political Quarterly 41, no. 3 (1988): 489-507. Full Text Link to Item
  - Mintz, A, and Ward, MD. "The evolution of israel's military expenditures: 1960-1983." Political Research Quarterly 41, no. 3 (January 1, 1988): 489-507. Full Text
  - Park, KY, and Ward, MD. "A research note on the correlates of war national capability data: Some revised procedures applied to the 1950–1980 era." International Interactions 14, no. 3 (January 1, 1988): 191-199. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and House, LL. "A Theory of the Behavioral Power of Nations." Journal of Conflict Resolution 32, no. 1 (January 1, 1988): 3-36. Full Text
  - Don Ward, M, and DonKirby, AM. "Reexamining Spatial Models of International Conflicts." Annals of the Association of American Geographers 77, no. 2 (June 1987): 279-283. Full Text
  - Kirby, AM, and Ward, MD. "The spatial analysis of peace and war." Comparative Political Studies 20, no. 3 (January 1, 1987): 293-313. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Mintz, A. "Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel: A computer simulation." Journal of Conflict Resolution 31, no. 1 (January 1, 1987): 86-105. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Mahajan, AK. "Defense Expenditures, Security Threats, and Governmental Deficits: A case study of india, 1952-1979." Journal of Conflict Resolution 28, no. 3 (January 1, 1984): 382-419. Full Text
  - Ward, MD. "The Political Economy of Arms Races and International Tension." Conflict Management and Peace Science 7, no. 2 (January 1, 1984): 1-24. Full Text
  - Ward, MD. "Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race." American Political Science Review 78, no. 2 (January 1, 1984): 297-317. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Widmaier, U. "The Domestic-International Conflict Nexus: New Evidence and Old Hypotheses." International Interactions 9, no. 1 (January 1, 1982): 75-101. Full Text
  - Ward, MD, and Guetzkow, H. "Toward integrated global models: From economic engineering to social science modeling." Journal of Policy Modeling 1, no. 3 (January 1, 1979): 445-464. Full Text
  - Park, TW, Abolfathi, F, and Ward, M. "Resource nationalism in the foreign policy behavior of oil exporting countries (1947 - 1974)." International Interactions 2, no. 4 (January 1, 1976): 247-262. Full Text
- Book Sections
  - WARD, MD, and Dorff, CL. "Les réseaux, les dyades et le modèle des relations sociales." In Liber amicorum: Hommage en l’honneur du Professeur Jacques Fontanel, edited by L Perrin-Bensahel and J-F Guilhaudis, 271-288. L’Harmattan, March 2013.
  - Ward, MD. "Statistical Analysis of International Interdependencies." In International Studies Encyclopaedic Compendium:, edited by PF Diehl and JD Morrow, 6615-6628. Cambridge University Press, 2010.
  - Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. "Analyzing Dependencies in Geo-Politics and Geo-Economics." In Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, edited by J Fontanel and M Chatterji, 133-160. Emerald Publishing (Elsevier), 2009.
  - Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Diffusion and the spread of democratic institutions." In The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy, 261-302. January 1, 2008. Full Text
- Conference Papers
  - Ward, MD, Hoff, PD, and Lofdahl, CL. "Identifying international networks: Latent spaces and imputation." 2003. Link to Item
  - Wilson, A, Ward, M, Kirby, A, and Pinder, R. "Re-entry into general practice - The Wessex strategy." January 1, 1998.
Scholarly, Clinical, & Service Activities
Presentations & Appearances
Service to the Profession
- Conference organizer : 10th Anniversary Conference on Statistics and Social Sciences, UW. June 4, 2009 2009

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Education, Training, & Certifications

Duke Appointment History

In the News

Awards & Honors

Selected Grants

Selected Publications

Books

Academic Articles

Book Sections

Conference Papers

Presentations & Appearances

Service to the Profession