Scholars@Duke

• Background
• 

  Education, Training, & Certifications

  • Ph.D., Northwestern University 1977
  • B.A., Indiana University at Indianapolis 1970
• 

  Duke Appointment History

  • Professor of Political Science, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2010 - 2017
  • Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Political Science, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2010 - 2013
• Recognition
• 

  In the News

  • MAR 24, 2014

    The New York Times

    News Analysis: Spreadsheets and global mayhem

  • FEB 17, 2014

    The Verge

    This algorithm can predict a revolution
• 

  Awards & Honors

  • Residency Fellow. Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences. 2013
• Research
• 

  Selected Grants

  • III: Small: Cumulon: Easy and Efficient Statistical Big-Data Analysis in the Cloud awarded by  National Science Foundation 2013 - 2017
  • Collaborative Research: Automated Real-time Production of Political Indicators awarded by  National Science Foundation 2013 - 2017
  • Validation for Split-Population Duration IED Models awarded by Office of Naval Research 2015 - 2016
  • Improving Predictions of IED: Split Population Risk Modeling awarded by Office of Naval Research 2012 - 2015
  • Phase II of Phase VI Analytics in Support of the Political Instability Task Force awarded by Science Applications International Corporation 2013 - 2014
• Publications & Artistic Works
• 

  Selected Publications

  • Books

    • Ward, M. D., and K. S. Gleditsch. Spatial Regression Models (in Chinese). Edited by Tim Lao. Sage Publications & Truth and Wisdom Press, 2012.
    • Ward, M. D., and P. D. Hoff. Analyzing dependencies in geo-economics and geo-politics. Vol. 6, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1572-8323(08)06009-8.
       Full Text
    • Ward, Michael D., and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. Spatial Regression Models. SAGE, 2008.
    • Ward, Michael Don. The New Geopolitics. Taylor & Francis, 1992.
    • Ward, M. Power in World Politics. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1989.
    • Guetzkow, Harold Steere, and Michael Don Ward. Theories, models, and simulations in international relations. Westview Pr, 1985.
    • Ward, M. D., and U. Luterbacher, eds. Dynamic Approaches to International Conflict. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1985.
    • Ward, Michael Don. Research gaps in alliance dynamics. Denver Monograph Series in World Affairs, 1982.
    • Ward, Michael Don. The Political Economy of Distribution. North Holland, New York: Elsevier, 1978.

  • Academic Articles

    • Lee, S. J., H. Liu, and M. D. Ward. “Lost in space: Geolocation in event data.” Political Science Research and Methods 7, no. 4 (October 1, 2019): 871–88. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2018.23.
       Full Text
    • Minhas, S., P. D. Hoff, and M. D. Ward. “Inferential Approaches for Network Analysis: AMEN for Latent Factor Models.” Political Analysis 27, no. 2 (April 1, 2019): 208–22. https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2018.50.
       Full Text
    • Hollenbach, F. M., I. Bojinov, S. Minhas, N. W. Metternich, M. D. Ward, and A. Volfovsky. “Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas.” Sociological Methods and Research, January 1, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124118799381.
       Full Text
    • Beger, A., D. W. Hill, N. W. Metternich, S. Minhas, and M. D. Ward. “Splitting it up: The spduration split-population duration regression package for time-varying covariates.” R Journal 9, no. 2 (December 1, 2017): 474–86. https://doi.org/10.32614/rj-2017-056.
       Full Text
    • Metternich, N. W., S. Minhas, and M. D. Ward. “Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 6 (July 1, 2017): 1151–73. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002715603452.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and A. Beger. “Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes.” Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 2 (January 1, 2017): 141–56. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316680858.
       Full Text
    • Beger, A., C. L. Dorff, and M. D. Ward. “Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models.” International Journal of Forecasting 32, no. 1 (January 1, 2016): 98–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.009.
       Full Text
    • Minhas, S., P. D. Hoff, and M. D. Ward. “A new approach to analyzing coevolving longitudinal networks in international relations.” Journal of Peace Research 53, no. 3 (January 1, 2016): 491–505. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343316630783.
       Full Text
    • Minhas, S., J. Ulfelder, and M. D. Ward. “Mining texts to efficiently generate global data on political regime types.” Research and Politics 2, no. 3 (July 1, 2015). https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015589217.
       Full Text
    • Montgomery, J. M., F. M. Hollenbach, and M. D. Ward. “Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences.” International Journal of Forecasting 31, no. 3 (July 1, 2015): 930–42. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.001.
       Full Text
    • Beger, A., C. L. Dorff, and M. D. Ward. “Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change.” Research and Politics 1, no. 3 (October 1, 2014). https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168014557511.
       Full Text
    • Cao, X., and M. D. Ward. “Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment? Transnational Portfolio Investments Modeled as Dynamic Network.” International Interactions 40, no. 2 (January 1, 2014): 216–45. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629.2014.880697.
       Full Text
    • Dorff, Cassy, and Michael D. Ward. “Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model.” Political Science Research and Methods 1, no. 2 (December 2013): 159–78. https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2013.21.
       Full Text
    • Montgomery, J. M., F. M. Hollenbach, and M. D. Ward. “Aggregation and ensembles: Principled combinations of data.” Ps  Political Science and Politics 46, no. 1 (February 1, 2013): 43–44. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096512001552.
       Full Text
    • Bakke, K. M., J. O’Loughlin, G. Toal, and M. D. Ward. “Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating Internal Legitimacy in Abkhazia.” International Studies Quarterly, 2013. https://doi.org/10.1111/isqu.12110.
       Full Text
    • Cao, Xun, and M. D. WARD. “Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment? Transnational Portfolio Investments Modeled as Dynamic Network.” International Interactions 39 (2013): inpress-inpress.
    • Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future: Using contentious issues to forecast interstate disputes.” Journal of Peace Research 50, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 17–31. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343312449033.
       Full Text
    • Metternich, N. W., C. Dorff, M. Gallop, S. Weschle, and M. D. Ward. “Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior.” American Journal of Political Science 57, no. 4 (January 1, 2013): 892–911. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12039.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., J. S. Ahlquist, and A. Rozenas. “Gravity's Rainbow: A dynamic latent space model for the world trade network.” Network Science 1, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 95–118. https://doi.org/10.1017/nws.2013.1.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., N. W. Metternich, C. L. Dorff, M. Gallop, F. M. Hollenbach, A. Schultz, and S. Weschle. “Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction.” International Studies Review, 2013.
    • Ward, M. D., N. W. Metternich, C. L. Dorff, M. Gallop, F. M. Hollenbach, A. Schultz, and S. Weschle. “Learning from the past and stepping into the future: Toward a new generation of conflict prediction.” International Studies Review 15, no. 4 (January 1, 2013): 473–90. https://doi.org/10.1111/misr.12072.
       Full Text
    • Montgomery, J. M., F. M. Hollenbach, and M. D. Ward. “Ensemble predictions of the 2012 US presidential election.” Ps  Political Science and Politics 45, no. 4 (October 1, 2012): 651–54. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096512000959.
       Full Text
    • Montgomery, J. M., F. M. Hollenbach, and M. D. Ward. “Improving predictions using ensemble bayesian model averaging.” Political Analysis 20, no. 3 (July 1, 2012): 271–91. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mps002.
       Full Text
    • Ward, Michael D. “Networks of Nations: The Evolution, Structure, and Impact of International Networks, 1816–2001. By Zeev Maoz. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010. 448p. $95.00 cloth, $36.99 paper.” Perspectives on Politics 10, no. 1 (March 2012): 224–25. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592711004828.
       Full Text
    • Montgomery, J. M., F. M. Hollenbach, and M. D. Ward. “Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election.” Ps: Political Science and Politics 45, no. 4 (2012): 651–54. https://doi.org/10.2307/41691405.
       Full Text  Link to Item
    • Greenhill, B., M. D. Ward, and A. Sacks. “The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models.” American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 4 (October 1, 2011): 991–1002. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00525.x.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., K. Stovel, and A. Sacks. “Network analysis and political science.” Annual Review of Political Science 14 (June 15, 2011): 245–64. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.12.040907.115949.
       Full Text
    • Weidmann, N. B., and M. D. Ward. “Erratum to: Predicting Conflict in Space and Time(Journal of Conflict Resolution, (2010), 54, 6 (883-901), 10.1177/0022002710371669).” Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, no. 2 (April 1, 2011): 321. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002711405502.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., B. D. Greenhill, and K. M. Bakke. “The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts.” Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 4 (July 1, 2010): 363–75. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343309356491.
       Full Text
    • Raftery, A. E., and M. D. Ward. “Special issue on statistical methods for the social sciences: Guest editors' introduction.” Statistical Methodology 7, no. 3 (May 1, 2010): 173–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stamet.2010.01.005.
       Full Text
    • Greenhill, Brian D., M. D. Ward, and K. M. Bakke. “Perils of Policy by P-Value: Predicting Civil Conflicts.” Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 4 (2010): 1–13.
    • Weidmann, N. B., and M. D. Ward. “Predicting conflict in space and time.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 54, no. 6 (January 1, 2010): 883–901. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002710371669.
       Full Text
    • Bakke, K. M., J. O’Loughlin, and M. D. Ward. “Reconciliation in conflict-affected societies: Multilevel modeling of individual and contextual factors in the North Caucasus of Russia.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 99, no. 5 (November 27, 2009): 1012–21. https://doi.org/10.1080/00045600903260622.
       Full Text
    • Bakke, K. M., X. Cao, J. O’Loughlin, and M. D. Ward. “Social distance in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the North Caucasus region of Russia: Inter and intra-ethnic attitudes and identities.” Nations and Nationalism 15, no. 2 (April 3, 2009): 227–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-8129.2009.00363.x.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., R. M. Siverson, and X. Cao. “Disputes, democracies, and dependencies: A reexamination of the Kantian peace.” American Journal of Political Science 51, no. 3 (July 1, 2007): 583–601. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00269.x.
       Full Text
    • Cao, X., A. Prakash, and M. D. Ward. “Protecting jobs in the age of globalization: Examining the relative salience of social welfare and industrial subsidies in OECD countries.” International Studies Quarterly 51, no. 2 (June 1, 2007): 301–27. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00453.x.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and P. D. Hoff. “Persistent patterns of international commerce.” Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 2 (March 1, 2007): 157–75. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343307075119.
       Full Text
    • Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “Diffusion and the international context of democratization.” International Organization 60, no. 4 (October 1, 2006): 911–33. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0020818306060309.
       Full Text
    • Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization.” International Organization 60, no. 4 (2006): 911–33. https://doi.org/10.2307/3877851.
       Full Text  Link to Item
    • Hoff, P. D., and M. D. Ward. “Modeling dependencies in international relations networks.” Political Analysis 12, no. 2 (March 1, 2004): 160–75. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mph012.
       Full Text
    • Siverson, R. M., and M. D. Ward. “The long peace: A reconsideration.” International Organization 56, no. 3 (June 1, 2002). https://doi.org/10.1162/002081802760199926.
       Full Text
    • Ward, Michael D. “Book Review.” Comparative Political Studies 35, no. 4 (May 2002): 484–88. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414002035004005.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D. “Green binders in cyberspace: A modest proposal.” Comparative Political Studies 35, no. 1 (February 1, 2002): 46–51. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414002035001004.
       Full Text
    • Heagerty, Patrick, Michael D. Ward, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. “Windows of Opportunity: Window Subseries Empirical Variance Estimators in International Relations.” Political Analysis 10, no. 3 (2002): 304–17. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/10.3.304.
       Full Text
    • Ward, Michael D., and John O’Loughlin. “Spatial Processes and Political Methodology: Introduction to the Special Issue.” Political Analysis 10, no. 3 (2002): 211–16. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/10.3.211.
       Full Text
    • Ward, Michael D., and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. “Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace.” Political Analysis 10, no. 3 (2002): 244–60. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/10.3.244.
       Full Text
    • Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “Measuring space: A minimum-distance database and applications to international studies.” Journal of Peace Research 38, no. 6 (January 1, 2001): 739–58. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343301038006006.
       Full Text
    • Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “War and peace in space and time: The role of democratization.” International Studies Quarterly 44, no. 1 (January 1, 2000): 1–29. https://doi.org/10.1111/0020-8833.00146.
       Full Text
    • Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “A revised list of independent states since the congress of Vienna.” International Interactions 25, no. 4 (January 1, 1999): 393–413. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629908434958.
       Full Text
    • Shin, M., and M. D. Ward. “Lost in space: Political geography and the defense-growth trade-off.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 43, no. 6 (January 1, 1999): 793–817. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002799043006006.
       Full Text
    • Cohen, J. S., and M. D. Ward. “Great expectations: Russian defence conversion.” Defence and Peace Economics 9, no. 4 (January 1, 1998): 381–94. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719808404911.
       Full Text
    • O’Loughlin, J., M. D. Ward, C. L. Lofdahl, J. S. Cohen, D. S. Brown, D. Reilly, K. S. Gleditsch, and M. Shin. “The diffusion of democracy, 1946-1994.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 88, no. 4 (January 1, 1998): 545–74. https://doi.org/10.1111/0004-5608.00112.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and K. S. Gleditsch. “Democratizing for peace.” American Political Science Review 92, no. 1 (January 1, 1998): 51–61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2585928.
       Full Text
    • Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “Double take: A reexamination of democracy and autocracy in modern polities.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, no. 3 (January 1, 1997): 361–83. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002797041003002.
       Full Text
    • Cohen, J. S., R. Stevenson, A. Mintz, and M. D. Ward. “Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Israel: The Indirect Link.” Journal of Peace Research 33, no. 3 (January 1, 1996): 341–52. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343396033003007.
       Full Text
    • Fontanel, J., I. Borissova, and M. Ward. “The principles of arms conversion in the case of russia.” Defence and Peace Economics 6, no. 3 (November 1, 1995): 237–51. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719508404828.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., J. S. Cohen, and M. M. Betsill. “The three faces of conversion in the usa.” Defence and Peace Economics 6, no. 3 (November 1, 1995): 221–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/10430719508404827.
       Full Text
    • Ward, Michael D. “Allies, Adversaries, and International Trade. By Joanne Gowa. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1994. 148p. $24.95.” American Political Science Review 89, no. 3 (September 1995): 802–3. https://doi.org/10.2307/2083053.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., D. R. Davis, and C. L. Lofdahl. “A century of tradeoffs: defense and growth in Japan and the United States.” International Studies Quarterly 39, no. 1 (January 1, 1995): 27–50. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600722.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., M. Penubarti, J. S. Cohen, and C. L. Lofdahl. “Guns and' growth around the globe.” International Interactions 21, no. 2 (January 1, 1995): 181–201. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629508434865.
       Full Text
    • Gibson, M. L., and M. D. Ward. “Export orientation: pathway or artifact?” International Studies Quarterly 36, no. 3 (January 1, 1992): 331–44. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600776.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and D. R. Davis. “Sizing up the Peace Dividend: Economic Growth and Military Spending in the United States, 1948–1996.” American Political Science Review 86, no. 3 (January 1, 1992): 748–55. https://doi.org/10.2307/1964136.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and S. Rajmaira. “Reciprocity and Norms in U.S.-Soviet Foreign Policy.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36, no. 2 (January 1, 1992): 342–68. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002792036002006.
       Full Text
    • Kirby, A., and M. D. Ward. “Modernity and the process of state formation: An examination of 20th century africa.” International Interactions 17, no. 1 (January 1, 1991): 113–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050629108434772.
       Full Text
    • Rajmaira, Sheen, and Michael D. Ward. “Evolving Foreign Policy Norms: Reciprocity in the Superpower Triad.” International Studies Quarterly 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 457–457. https://doi.org/10.2307/2600607.
       Full Text
    • Davis, D. R., and M. D. Ward. “They Dance Alone: Deaths and the Disappeared in Contemporary Chile.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 3 (January 1, 1990): 449–75. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002790034003004.
       Full Text
    • Davis, D. R., and M. D. Ward. “The Entrepreneurial State: Evidence from Taiwan.” Comparative Political Studies 23, no. 3 (January 1, 1990): 314–33. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414090023003002.
       Full Text
    • Mintz, A., and M. D. Ward. “The political economy of military spending in Israel.” American Political Science Review 83, no. 2 (January 1, 1989): 521–33. https://doi.org/10.2307/1962403.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D. “Things fall apart: A logical analysis of crisis resolution dynamics.” International Interactions 15, no. 1 (December 1, 1988): 65–79. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050628808434720.
       Full Text
    • Mintz, Alex, and Michael D. Ward. “The Evolution of Israel's Military Expenditures: 1960-1983.” The Western Political Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September 1988): 489–489. https://doi.org/10.2307/448599.
       Full Text
    • House, L. L., and M. D. Ward. “The behavioral power of nations: an analysis of verbal conflict using the equations of statistical equilibrium.” Quality and Quantity 22, no. 2 (June 1, 1988): 167–89. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00223040.
       Full Text
    • Mintz, A., and M. D. Ward. “The evolution of israel's military expenditures: 1960-1983.” Political Research Quarterly 41, no. 3 (January 1, 1988): 489–507. https://doi.org/10.1177/106591298804100306.
       Full Text
    • Park, K. Y., and M. D. Ward. “A research note on the correlates of war national capability data: Some revised procedures applied to the 1950–1980 era.” International Interactions 14, no. 3 (January 1, 1988): 191–99. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050628808434705.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D. “PC-Globe.” Social Science Computer Review 6, no. 1 (January 1, 1988): 163–64. https://doi.org/10.1177/089443938800600124.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and L. L. House. “A Theory of the Behavioral Power of Nations.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 32, no. 1 (January 1, 1988): 3–36. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002788032001001.
       Full Text
    • Don Ward, Michael, and Andrew M. DonKirby. “Reexamining Spatial Models of International Conflicts.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 77, no. 2 (June 1987): 279–83. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1987.tb00159.x.
       Full Text
    • Kirby, A. M., and M. D. Ward. “The spatial analysis of peace and war.” Comparative Political Studies 20, no. 3 (January 1, 1987): 293–313. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414087020003002.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and A. Mintz. “Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel: A computer simulation.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 31, no. 1 (January 1, 1987): 86–105. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002787031001006.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D. “The Political Economy of Arms Races and International Tension.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 7, no. 2 (January 1, 1984): 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1177/073889428400700201.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D. “Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race.” American Political Science Review 78, no. 2 (January 1, 1984): 297–317. https://doi.org/10.2307/1963366.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and A. K. Mahajan. “Defense Expenditures, Security Threats, and Governmental Deficits: A case study of india, 1952-1979.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 28, no. 3 (January 1, 1984): 382–419. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002784028003002.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and U. Widmaier. “The Domestic-International Conflict Nexus: New Evidence and Old Hypotheses.” International Interactions 9, no. 1 (January 1, 1982): 75–101. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050628208434591.
       Full Text
    • Ward, M. D., and H. Guetzkow. “Toward integrated global models: From economic engineering to social science modeling.” Journal of Policy Modeling 1, no. 3 (January 1, 1979): 445–64. https://doi.org/10.1016/0161-8938(79)90008-5.
       Full Text
    • Park, T. W., F. Abolfathi, and M. Ward. “Resource nationalism in the foreign policy behavior of oil exporting countries (1947 - 1974).” International Interactions 2, no. 4 (January 1, 1976): 247–62. https://doi.org/10.1080/03050627608434444.
       Full Text

  • Book Sections

    • O’Loughlin, J., M. D. Ward, C. L. Lofdahl, J. S. Cohen, D. S. Brown, D. Reilly, K. S. Gleditsch, and M. Shin. “The diffusion of democracy, 1946-1994.” In Politics: Critical Essays in Human Geography, 173–202, 2017.
    • WARD, M. D., and Cassy L. Dorff. “Les réseaux, les dyades et le modèle des relations sociales.” In Liber Amicorum: Hommage En l’honneur Du Professeur Jacques Fontanel, edited by Liliane Perrin-Bensahel and Jean-Francois Guilhaudis, 271–88. L’Harmattan, 2013.
    • Ward, M. D. “Statistical Analysis of International Interdependencies.” In International Studies Encyclopaedic Compendium:, edited by Paul F. Diehl and James D. Morrow, Scientific Studies of International Proc:6615–28. Cambridge University Press, 2010.
    • Ward, M. D., and P. D. Hoff. “Analyzing Dependencies in Geo-Politics and Geo-Economics.” In Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, edited by Jacques Fontanel and Manas Chatterji, 6:133–60. Emerald Publishing (Elsevier), 2009.
    • Gleditsch, K. S., and M. D. Ward. “Diffusion and the spread of democratic institutions.” In The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy, 9780521878890:261–302, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511755941.007.
       Full Text

  • Conference Papers

    • Ward, M. D., P. D. Hoff, and C. L. Lofdahl. “Identifying international networks: Latent spaces and imputation.” In Dynamic Social Network Modeling and Analysis, edited by R. Breiger, K. Carley, and P. Pattison, 345–59. NATL ACADEMIES PRESS, 2003.
       Link to Item
    • Wilson, A., M. Ward, A. Kirby, and R. Pinder. “Re-entry into general practice - The Wessex strategy.” In Education for General Practice, 9:135–37, 1998.
• Scholarly, Clinical, & Service Activities
• 

  Presentations & Appearances

  • A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Predictive Power of Binary Models. December 29, 2009  2009
  • Gravity's Rainbow: A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Trade Network. December 29, 2009  2009
  • Gravity's Rainbow: the perils of p-values in models of international commerce. November 3, 2009  2009
  • International Trade Networks & International Institutions: The Role of Democracy & the WTO in Contemporary Trade. October 8, 2009  2009
  • Gravity's Rainbow: A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Trade Network. September 16, 2009  2009
  • Predicting Conflict in Space and Time. February 15, 2009  2009
• 

  Service to the Profession

  • Conference organizer : 10th Anniversary Conference on Statistics and Social Sciences, UW. June 4, 2009  2009

Some information on this profile has been compiled automatically from Duke databases and external sources. (Our About page explains how this works.) If you see a problem with the information, please write to Scholars@Duke and let us know. We will reply promptly.