Scholars@Duke

• Background
• 

  Education, Training, & Certifications

  • Ph.D., Northwestern University 1977
  • B.A., Indiana University at Indianapolis 1970
• 

  Duke Appointment History

  • Professor of Political Science, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2010 - 2017
  • Director of Graduate Studies in the Department of Political Science, Political Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2010 - 2013
• Recognition
• 

  In the News

  • MAR 24, 2014

    The New York Times

    News Analysis: Spreadsheets and global mayhem

  • FEB 17, 2014

    The Verge

    This algorithm can predict a revolution
• 

  Awards & Honors

  • Residency Fellow. Center for Advanced Studies in the Behavioral Sciences. 2013
• Research
• 

  Selected Grants

  • III: Small: Cumulon: Easy and Efficient Statistical Big-Data Analysis in the Cloud awarded by  National Science Foundation 2013 - 2017
  • Collaborative Research: Automated Real-time Production of Political Indicators awarded by  National Science Foundation 2013 - 2017
  • Validation for Split-Population Duration IED Models awarded by Office of Naval Research 2015 - 2016
  • Improving Predictions of IED: Split Population Risk Modeling awarded by Office of Naval Research 2012 - 2015
  • Phase II of Phase VI Analytics in Support of the Political Instability Task Force awarded by Science Applications International Corporation 2013 - 2014
• Publications & Artistic Works
• 

  Selected Publications

  • Books

    • Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. Spatial Regression Models (in Chinese). Edited by T Lao. Sage Publications & Truth and Wisdom Press, 2012.
    • Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. Spatial Regression Models. SAGE, February 29, 2008.
    • Ward, MD. The New Geopolitics. Taylor & Francis, January 1, 1992.
    • Ward, M. Power in World Politics. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1989.
    • Dynamic Approaches to International Conflict. Edited by MD Ward and U Luterbacher. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1985.
    • Guetzkow, HS, and Ward, MD. Theories, models, and simulations in international relations. Westview Pr, 1985.
    • Ward, MD. Research gaps in alliance dynamics. Denver Monograph Series in World Affairs, 1982.
    • Ward, MD. The Political Economy of Distribution. North Holland, New York: Elsevier, 1978.
    • Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. Analyzing dependencies in geo-economics and geo-politics. : Emerald (MCB UP ),.  Full Text

  • Academic Articles

    • Beger, A, Hill, DW, Metternich, NW, Minhas, S, and Ward, MD. "Splitting it up: The spduration split-population duration regression package for time-varying covariates." R Journal 9, no. 2 (December 1, 2017): 474-486.
    • Metternich, NW, Minhas, S, and Ward, MD. "Firewall? or Wall on Fire? A Unified Framework of Conflict Contagion and the Role of Ethnic Exclusion." Journal of Conflict Resolution 61, no. 6 (July 2017): 1151-1173.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Beger, A. "Lessons from near real-time forecasting of irregular leadership changes." Journal of Peace Research 54, no. 2 (March 2017): 141-156.  Full Text
    • Minhas, S, Hoff, PD, and Ward, MD. "A new approach to analyzing coevolving longitudinal networks in international relations." Journal of Peace Research 53, no. 3 (May 2016): 491-505.  Full Text
    • Beger, A, Dorff, CL, and Ward, MD. "Irregular leadership changes in 2014: Forecasts using ensemble, split-population duration models." International Journal of Forecasting 32, no. 1 (January 2016): 98-111.  Full Text
    • Minhas, S, Ulfelder, J, and Ward, MD. "Mining texts to efficiently generate global data on political regime types." Research & Politics 2, no. 3 (August 20, 2015): 205316801558921-205316801558921.  Full Text
    • Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Calibrating ensemble forecasting models with sparse data in the social sciences." International Journal of Forecasting 31, no. 3 (July 2015): 930-942.  Full Text
    • Beger, A, Dorff, CL, and Ward, MD. "Ensemble forecasting of irregular leadership change." Research & Politics 1, no. 3 (October 8, 2014): 205316801455751-205316801455751.  Full Text
    • Cao, X, and Ward, MD. "Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment? Transnational Portfolio Investments Modeled as Dynamic Network." International Interactions 40, no. 2 (March 15, 2014): 216-245.  Full Text
    • "Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating Internal Legitimacy in Abkhazia." International Studies Quarterly 58, no. 3 (January 1, 2014): 591-607.  Full Text
    • Dorff, C, and Ward, MD. "Networks, Dyads, and the Social Relations Model." Political Science Research and Methods 1, no. 02 (December 2013): 159-178.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, Metternich, NW, Dorff, CL, Gallop, M, Hollenbach, FM, Schultz, A, and Weschle, S. "Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction." International Studies Review 15, no. 4 (December 2013): 473-490.  Full Text
    • Metternich, NW, Dorff, C, Gallop, M, Weschle, S, and Ward, MD. "Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior." American Journal of Political Science (May 2013): n/a-n/a.  Full Text
    • WARD, MICHAELD, AHLQUIST, JOHNS, and ROZENAS, ARTURAS. "Gravity's Rainbow: A dynamic latent space model for the world trade network." Network Science 1, no. 01 (April 2013): 95-118.  Full Text
    • Bakke, KM, O'Loughlin, J, Toal, G, and Ward, MD. "Convincing State-Builders? Disaggregating Internal Legitimacy in Abkhazia (Accepted)." International Studies Quarterly (2013).  Full Text
    • Cao, X, and WARD, MD. "Do Democracies Attract Portfolio Investment? Transnational Portfolio Investments Modeled as Dynamic Network." International Interactions 39 (2013): in press-in press. (Academic Article)
    • Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future." Journal of Peace Research 50, no. 1 (January 2013): 17-31.  Full Text
    • Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "AGGREGATION AND ENSEMBLES: PRINCIPLED COMBINATIONS OF DATA." Ps: Political Science & Politics 46, no. 01 (January 2013): 43-44.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, Metternich, NW, Dorff, CL, Gallop, M, Hollenbach, FM, Schultz, A, and Weschle, S. "Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction." International Studies Review (2013).
    • Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election." Ps: Political Science & Politics 45, no. 04 (October 2012): 651-654.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD. "Networks of Nations: The Evolution, Structure, and Impact of International Networks, 1816-2001." PERSPECTIVES ON POLITICS 10, no. 1 (March 2012): 224-225.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election." PS: Political Science and Politics 45, no. 4 (2012): 651-654.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Montgomery, JM, Hollenbach, FM, and Ward, MD. "Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging." Political Analysis 20, no. 03 (2012): 271-291.  Full Text
    • Greenhill, B, Ward, MD, and Sacks, A. "The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models." American Journal of Political Science 55, no. 4 (October 2011): 991-1002.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, Stovel, K, and Sacks, A. "Network Analysis and Political Science." Annual Review of Political Science 14, no. 1 (June 15, 2011): 245-264.  Full Text
    • "Erratum." Journal of Conflict Resolution 55, no. 2 (April 2011): 321-321.  Full Text
    • Weidmann, NB, and Ward, MD. "Predicting Conflict in Space and Time." Journal of Conflict Resolution 54, no. 6 (December 2010): 883-901.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, Greenhill, BD, and Bakke, KM. "The perils of policy by p-value: Predicting civil conflicts." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 4 (July 2010): 363-375.  Full Text
    • Raftery, AE, and Ward, MD. "Special issue on statistical methods for the social sciences: Guest editors’ introduction." Statistical Methodology 7, no. 3 (May 2010): 173-174.  Full Text
    • Greenhill, BD, Ward, MD, and Bakke, KM. "Perils of Policy by P-Value: Predicting Civil Conflicts." Journal of Peace Research 47, no. 4 (2010): 1-13. (Academic Article)
    • Bakke, KM, O'Loughlin, J, and Ward, MD. "Reconciliation in Conflict-Affected Societies: Multilevel Modeling of Individual and Contextual Factors in the North Caucasus of Russia." Annals of the Association of American Geographers 99, no. 5 (October 30, 2009): 1012-1021.  Full Text
    • BAKKE, KRISTINM, CAO, XUN, O'LOUGHLIN, JOHN, and WARD, MICHAELD. "Social distance in Bosnia-Herzegovina and the North Caucasus region of Russia: Inter and intra-ethnic attitudes and identities." Nations and Nationalism 15, no. 2 (April 2009): 227-253.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, Siverson, RM, and Cao, X. "Disputes, Democracies, and Dependencies: A Reexamination of the Kantian Peace." American Journal of Political Science 51, no. 3 (July 2007): 583-601.  Full Text
    • CAO, XUN, PRAKASH, ASEEM, and WARD, MICHAELD. "Protecting Jobs in the Age of Globalization: Examining the Relative Salience of Social Welfare and Industrial Subsidies in OECD Countries." International Studies Quarterly 51, no. 2 (June 2007): 301-327.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. "Persistent Patterns of International Commerce." Journal of Peace Research 44, no. 2 (March 2007): 157-175.  Full Text
    • Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization." International Organization 60, no. 04 (October 2006).  Full Text
    • Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Diffusion and the International Context of Democratization." International Organization 60, no. 4 (2006): 911-933.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Hoff, PD, and Ward, MD. "Modeling Dependencies in International Relations Networks." Political Analysis 12, no. 02 (2004): 160-175.  Full Text
    • Siverson, RM, and Ward, MD. "The Long Peace: A Reconsideration." International Organization 56, no. 3 (August 30, 2002): 679-691.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD. "Triangulating peace: Democracy, interdependence, and international organization." COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES 35, no. 4 (May 2002): 484-488.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Ward, MD. "Green Binders In Cyberspace: A Modest Proposal." Comparative Political Studies 35, no. 1 (February 1, 2002): 46-51.  Full Text
    • Heagerty, P, Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. "Windows of Opportunity: Window Subseries Empirical Variance Estimators in International Relations." Political Analysis 10, no. 03 (2002): 304-317.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. "Location, Location, Location: An MCMC Approach to Modeling the Spatial Context of War and Peace." Political Analysis 10, no. 03 (2002): 244-260.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and O'Loughlin, J. "Spatial Processes and Political Methodology: Introduction to the Special Issue." Political Analysis 10, no. 03 (2002): 211-216.  Full Text
    • Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Measuring Space: A Minimum-Distance Database and Applications to International Studies." Journal of Peace Research 38, no. 6 (November 2001): 739-758.  Full Text
    • Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "War and Peace in Space and Time: The Role of Democratization." International Studies Quarterly 44, no. 1 (March 2000): 1-29.  Full Text
    • Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "A revised list of independent states since the congress of Vienna." International Interactions 25, no. 4 (December 1999): 393-413.  Full Text
    • Shin, M, and Ward, MD. "Lost in Space." Journal of Conflict Resolution 43, no. 6 (December 1999): 793-817.  Full Text
    • O'Loughlin, J, Ward, MD, Lofdahl, CL, Cohen, JS, Brown, DS, Reilly, D, Gleditsch, KS, and Shin, M. "The Diffusion of Democracy, 1946–1994." Annals of the Association of American Geographers 88, no. 4 (December 1998): 545-574.  Full Text
    • Cohen, JS, and Ward, MD. "Great expectations: Russian defence conversion†." Defence and Peace Economics 9, no. 4 (August 1998): 381-394.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Gleditsch, KS. "Democratizing for Peace." American Political Science Review 92, no. 01 (March 1998): 51-61.  Full Text
    • Gleditsch, KS, and Ward, MD. "Double Take." Journal of Conflict Resolution 41, no. 3 (June 1997): 361-383.  Full Text
    • COHEN, JORDINS, STEVENSON, RANDOLPH, MINTZ, ALEX, and WARD, MICHAELD. "Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Israel: The Indirect Link." Journal of Peace Research 33, no. 3 (August 1996): 341-352.  Full Text
    • Fontanel, J, Borissova, I, and Ward, M. "The principles of arms conversion in the case of Russia." Defence and Peace Economics 6, no. 3 (November 1995): 237-251.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, Cohen, JS, and Betsill, MM. "The three faces of conversion in the USA." Defence and Peace Economics 6, no. 3 (November 1995): 221-235.  Full Text
    • WARD, MD. "ALLIES, ADVERSARIES, AND INTERNATIONAL-TRADE - GOWA,J." AMERICAN POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW 89, no. 3 (September 1995): 802-803.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Ward, MD, Davis, DR, and Lofdahl, CL. "A Century of Tradeoffs: Defense and Growth in Japan and the United States." International Studies Quarterly 39, no. 1 (March 1995): 27-27.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, Penubarti, M, Cohen, JS, and Lofdahl, CL. "Guns and growth around the globe." International Interactions 21, no. 2 (March 1995): 181-201.  Full Text
    • Gibson, ML, and Ward, MD. "Export Orientation: Pathway or Artifact?." International Studies Quarterly 36, no. 3 (September 1992): 331-331.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Davis, DR. "Sizing up the Peace Dividend: Economic Growth and Military Spending in the United States, 1948–1996." American Political Science Review 86, no. 03 (September 1992): 748-755.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Rajmaira, S. "Reciprocity and Norms in U.S.-Soviet Foreign Policy." Journal of Conflict Resolution 36, no. 2 (June 1992): 342-368.  Full Text
    • Kirby, A, and Ward, MD. "Modernity and the process of state formation: An examination of 20th century Africa." International Interactions 17, no. 1 (May 1991): 113-126.  Full Text
    • Rajmaira, S, and Ward, MD. "Evolving Foreign Policy Norms: Reciprocity in the Superpower Triad." International Studies Quarterly 34, no. 4 (December 1990): 457-457.  Full Text
    • DAVIS, DAVIDR, and WARD, MICHAELD. "The Entrepreneurial State." Comparative Political Studies 23, no. 3 (October 1990): 314-333.  Full Text
    • Davis, DR, and Ward, MD. "They Dance Alone." Journal of Conflict Resolution 34, no. 3 (September 1990): 449-475.  Full Text
    • Mintz, A, and Ward, MD. "The Political Economy of Military Spending in Israel." The American Political Science Review 83, no. 2 (June 1989): 521-521.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD. "Things fall apart: A logical analysis of crisis resolution dynamics." International Interactions 15, no. 1 (December 1988): 65-79.  Full Text
    • Mintz, A, and Ward, MD. "The Evolution of Israel's Military Expenditures: 1960-1983." Political Research Quarterly 41, no. 3 (September 1, 1988): 489-507.  Full Text
    • Park, KY, and Ward, MD. "A research note on the correlates of war national capability data: Some revised procedures applied to the 1950–1980 era∗." International Interactions 14, no. 3 (July 1988): 191-199.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD. "Software Reviews : PC-Globe." Social Science Computer Review 6, no. 1 (April 1988): 163-164.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and House, LL. "A Theory of the Behavioral Power of Nations." Journal of Conflict Resolution 32, no. 1 (March 1988): 3-36.  Full Text
    • House, L, and Ward, M. "The behavioral power of nations: an analysis of verbal conflict using the equations of statistical equilibrium." Quality and Quantity 22, no. 2 (1988).  Full Text
    • Mintz, A, and Ward, MD. "The Evolution of Israel's Military Expenditures: 1960-1983." The Western Political Quarterly 41, no. 3 (1988): 489-507.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • KIRBY, ANDREWM, and WARD, MICHAELD. "The Spatial Analysis of Peace and War." Comparative Political Studies 20, no. 3 (October 1987): 293-313.  Full Text
    • Don Ward, M, and DonKirby, AM. "Reexamining Spatial Models of International Conflicts." Annals of the Association of American Geographers 77, no. 2 (June 1987): 279-283.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Mintz, A. "Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel." Journal of Conflict Resolution 31, no. 1 (March 1987): 86-105.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Mahajan, AK. "Defense Expenditures, Security Threats, and Governmental Deficits." Journal of Conflict Resolution 28, no. 3 (September 1984): 382-419.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD. "Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race." American Political Science Review 78, no. 02 (June 1984): 297-317.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD. "The Political Economy of Arms Races and International Tension." Conflict Management and Peace Science 7, no. 2 (February 1984): 1-24.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Widmaier, U. "The domestic‐international conflict nexus: New evidence and old hypotheses." International Interactions 9, no. 1 (January 1982): 75-101.  Full Text
    • Ward, MD, and Guetzkow, H. "Toward integrated global models: From economic engineering to social science modeling." Journal of Policy Modeling 1, no. 3 (September 1979): 445-464.  Full Text
    • Park, TW, Abolfathi, F, and Ward, M. "Resource nationalism in the foreign policy behavior of oil exporting countries (1947–1974)†." International Interactions 2, no. 4 (January 1976): 247-262.  Full Text
    • Hollenbach, FM, Bojinov, I, Minhas, S, Metternich, NW, Ward, MD, and Volfovsky, A. "Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas(Published online)." Sociological Methods & Research : 004912411879938-004912411879938.  Full Text

  • Book Sections

    • WARD, MD, and Dorff, CL. "Les réseaux, les dyades et le modèle des relations sociales." In Liber amicorum: Hommage en l’honneur du Professeur Jacques Fontanel, edited by L Perrin-Bensahel and J-F Guilhaudis, 271-288. L’Harmattan, March 2013.
    • Ward, MD. "Statistical Analysis of International Interdependencies." In International Studies Encyclopaedic Compendium:, edited by PF Diehl and JD Morrow, 6615-6628. Cambridge University Press, 2010.
    • Ward, MD, and Hoff, PD. "Analyzing Dependencies in Geo-Politics and Geo-Economics." In Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, edited by J Fontanel and M Chatterji, 133-160. Emerald Publishing (Elsevier), 2009.
    • Skrede Gleditsch, K, and Ward, MD. "Diffusion and the spread of democratic institutions." In The Global Diffusion of Markets and Democracy, 261-302.: Cambridge University Press,.  Full Text

  • Conference Papers

    • Ward, MD, Hoff, PD, and Lofdahl, CL. "Identifying international networks: Latent spaces and imputation." 2003.  Link to Item
    • "Re-entry into general practice - The Wessex strategy." January 1, 1998.
• Scholarly, Clinical, & Service Activities
• 

  Presentations & Appearances

  • A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Predictive Power of Binary Models. December 29, 2009  2009
  • Gravity's Rainbow: A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Trade Network. December 29, 2009  2009
  • Gravity's Rainbow: the perils of p-values in models of international commerce. November 3, 2009  2009
  • International Trade Networks & International Institutions: The Role of Democracy & the WTO in Contemporary Trade. October 8, 2009  2009
  • Gravity's Rainbow: A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Trade Network. September 16, 2009  2009
  • Predicting Conflict in Space and Time. February 15, 2009  2009
• 

  Service to the Profession

  • Conference organizer : 10th Anniversary Conference on Statistics and Social Sciences, UW. June 4, 2009  2009

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