Rakeen Tanvir

Journal article Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control · April 1, 2026 We develop a forward-guidance Taylor rule with time-varying coefficients, estimated from the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median forecasts of the federal funds rate, inflation, and unemployment between 2012 and 2025. Our model al ... Full text Cite

Hawkish or Dovish Fed? Estimating a Time-Varying Reaction Function of the Federal Open Market Committee's Median Participant

Journal article Finance and Economics Discussion Series · November 2023 This paper estimates a time-varying reaction function of the median participant of the Federal Open Market Committee, using a Taylor rule with time-varying coefficients estimated on one- to three-year ahead median forecasts of the federal funds rat ... Full text Cite

Hawkish or Dovish? Using the Fed's Dot Plot to Gauge Intended Policy Responses to Inflation and Economic Activity in Real Time

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