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Robert T. Clemen

Professor Emeritus
Fuqua School of Business
Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708-0120
A05E Fuqua Sch of Bus, Durham, NC 27708

Overview


Robert T. Clemen is Professor of Decision Sciences at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business. He has broad interests in the use of decision analysis for organizational decision making, and special interests in the psychology of judgment, assessing expert probabilities, the effectiveness of decision-making techniques, and using decision analysis to help organizations become environmentally sustainable. He has taught courses on decision making and environmental sustainability in Duke’s daytime, Global Executive, Weekend Executive, and Cross continent MBA programs.

Professor Clemen has achieved notoriety as the author of the widely-used text, Making Hard Decisions. The first edition of this decision-analysis textbook, recognized as Best Publication in 1991 by the Decision Analysis Society, became the most widely used book of its kind almost overnight. Subsequent editions appeared in 1996, 2001, 2004, with another in preparation. Written at a level that is accessible for all students, this text represents a comprehensive overview of the field of decision analysis.

Professor Clemen’s consulting and executive teaching include work for corporations, utilities, and government agencies, and have covered such diverse areas as salmon farming, offshore oil leasing, avalanche prediction, nuclear waste storage, and environmental policy.

Aside from his teaching and consulting activities, Professor Clemen’s research, much of which has been funded by the National Science Foundation, has contributed in many ways to the disciplines of decision analysis and forecasting. He has published over 50 scholarly articles and reports, three of which have won awards (three from the Decision Analysis Society, 1990, 2005; and one from the International Journal of Forecasting, 1991). In addition, he has served as founding co-Editor-in-Chief of the journal Decision Analysis and currently serves on its editorial board.

Prior to coming to Duke in 1995, Professor Clemen served on the faculty of the Lundquist College of Business at the University of Oregon for 11 years. He holds a Ph.D. from Indiana University and resides in Durham, NC.

Current Appointments & Affiliations


Professor Emeritus · 2011 - Present Fuqua School of Business

Recent Publications


Partition Dependence and Carryover Biases in Subjective Probability Assessment Surveys for Continuous Variables: Model-Based Estimation and Correction

Journal Article Decision Analysis · March 1, 2016 As probability elicitation becomes widely used, methods other than one-on-one interviews are being used to elicit expert probabilities. This paper considers biases that may arise when probabilities are elicited in an online or workbook setting. We develop ... Full text Cite

Empiric antibiotic treatment of erythema migrans-like skin lesions as a function of geography: a clinical and cost effectiveness modeling study.

Journal Article Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis · December 2013 The skin lesion of early Lyme disease, erythema migrans (EM), is so characteristic that routine practice is to treat all such patients with antibiotics. Because other skin lesions may resemble EM, it is not known whether presumptive treatment of EM is appr ... Full text Open Access Link to item Cite

Outsourcing sustainability: A game-theoretic modeling approach

Journal Article Environment Systems and Decisions · June 1, 2013 As a response to stakeholders' interest in sustainable products and services, an organization may change its approach to sustainability issues, from isolated social and environmental projects to corporate sustainability strategies and practices that are pa ... Full text Cite
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Recent Grants


Model-based methods for debiasing individual probability assessments: Theory, experiments, and application to Mississipi

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Science Foundation · 2010 - 2013

Method vs. Preference Learning in Decision Analytic Preference Assessment

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Science Foundation · 2009 - 2012

Prescriptive Models for Improving Subjective Probability Judgements

ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Science Foundation · 2003 - 2006

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Education, Training & Certifications


Indiana University at Indianapolis · 1984 Ph.D.