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Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data

Publication ,  Journal Article
Cao, J; Ho, MS; Li, Y; Newell, RG; Pizer, WA
Published in: Resource and Energy Economics
May 1, 2019

Based on econometric estimation using data from the Chinese Urban Household Survey, we develop a preferred forecast range of 85–143 percent growth in residential per capita electricity demand over 2009–2025. Our analysis suggests that per capita income growth drives a 43% increase, with the remainder due to an unexplained time trend. Roughly one-third of the income-driven demand comes from increases in the stock of specific major appliances, particularly AC units. The other two-thirds comes from non-specific sources of income-driven growth and is based on an estimated income elasticity that falls from 0.28 to 0.11 as income rises. While the stock of refrigerators is not projected to increase, we find that they contribute nearly 20 percent of household electricity demand. Alternative plausible time trend assumptions are responsible for the wide range of 85–143 percent. Meanwhile we estimate a price elasticity of demand of −0.7. These estimates point to carbon pricing and appliance efficiency policies that could substantially reduce demand.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Resource and Energy Economics

DOI

ISSN

0928-7655

Publication Date

May 1, 2019

Volume

56

Start / End Page

6 / 27

Related Subject Headings

  • Strategic, Defence & Security Studies
  • 3801 Applied economics
  • 1505 Marketing
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 1402 Applied Economics
 

Citation

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Cao, J., Ho, M. S., Li, Y., Newell, R. G., & Pizer, W. A. (2019). Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data. Resource and Energy Economics, 56, 6–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.10.003
Cao, J., M. S. Ho, Y. Li, R. G. Newell, and W. A. Pizer. “Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data.” Resource and Energy Economics 56 (May 1, 2019): 6–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.10.003.
Cao J, Ho MS, Li Y, Newell RG, Pizer WA. Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data. Resource and Energy Economics. 2019 May 1;56:6–27.
Cao, J., et al. “Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data.” Resource and Energy Economics, vol. 56, May 2019, pp. 6–27. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.reseneeco.2017.10.003.
Cao J, Ho MS, Li Y, Newell RG, Pizer WA. Chinese residential electricity consumption: Estimation and forecast using micro-data. Resource and Energy Economics. 2019 May 1;56:6–27.
Journal cover image

Published In

Resource and Energy Economics

DOI

ISSN

0928-7655

Publication Date

May 1, 2019

Volume

56

Start / End Page

6 / 27

Related Subject Headings

  • Strategic, Defence & Security Studies
  • 3801 Applied economics
  • 1505 Marketing
  • 1403 Econometrics
  • 1402 Applied Economics