A digital twin for real-time biodiversity forecasting with citizen science data

Citizen science provides large amounts of biodiversity data. Key challenges in unlocking its full potential include engaging citizens with limited species identification skills and accelerating the transition from data collection to research and monitoring outputs. Here we use a large dataset from Finland to show how even citizens who cannot identify birds themselves can contribute to real-time predictions of avian distributions. This is achieved through a digital twin that combines smartphone-based citizen science with long-term knowledge in a continuously updating model. The app submits raw audio to a backend that classifies birds with machine learning, reducing variation in data quality and enabling validation and reclassification by continuously improving classifiers. We counteracted spatiotemporal sampling biases by interval recordings and permanent point count networks. Over 2 years, the app generated 15 million bird detections. Independent test data show that the digital-twin-informed models are more accurate at predicting bird spatiotemporal distributions. Because our approach is highly scalable and has the potential to generate biomonitoring data even in understudied areas, it could accelerate the flow of reliable biodiversity information and increase inclusivity in citizen science projects.

Duke Scholars

Author David B. Dunson Statistical Science