Spatial Dynamics of Migration and Economic Growth: a Comparative Analysis of China’s Three Largest Megacity Regions

Megacity regions are expected to amplify agglomeration economies through a circular cumulative causation process between migration and economic growth, yet the spatial dynamics of this process remains underexplored. This study investigates these dynamics in China’s three largest megacity regions using county-level data from the 2010 and 2020 censuses. Spatial simultaneous equations models are employed to address endogeneity issues. The results reveal variegated regional patterns shaped by polycentricity and institutional contexts. The Yangtze-River-Delta (YRD), a polycentric region with decentralized governance, exhibits strong intercity competitions for population and economic growth. Each 10,000 RMB increase in neighboring areas’ GDP per capita reduced the local net migration rate by 0.008 to 0.010% points between 2010 and 2020. By contrast, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region, with a monocentric structure dominated by Beijing’s leverage, shows signs of agglomeration diseconomies. Each 10,000 RMB increase in neighboring regions’ GDP per capita was associated with a 0.006 to 0.010% point increase in the local net migration rate. The Pearl-River-Delta (PRD), marked by low polycentricity and unified provincial governance, exhibits relatively weaker spatial effects. These findings highlight the importance of decentralized governance in fostering agglomeration economies across administrative boundaries and in mitigating core–periphery imbalances within megacity regions.

Duke Scholars

Author Xiaochen Zhang DKU Faculty