Predicted long-term cardiovascular risk among young adults in the national longitudinal study of adolescent health.


Journal Article

OBJECTIVES: We estimated the distribution of predicted long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among young adults in the United States. METHODS: Our data were derived from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health participants (n = 14 333; average age: 28.9 years). We used a Framingham-derived risk prediction function to calculate 30-year risks of "hard" and "general" CVD by gender and race/ethnicity. RESULTS: Average 30-year risks for hard and general CVD were 10.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.1%, 10.7%) and 17.3% (95% CI = 17.0%, 17.7%) among men and 4.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 4.6%) and 9.2% (95% CI = 8.9%, 9.5%) among women. Average age-adjusted risks of hard and general CVD were higher among Blacks and American Indians than among Whites and lower among Asian/Pacific Islander women than White women. American Indian men continued to have a higher risk of general CVD after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Four percent of women (95% CI = 3.6%, 5.0%) and 26.2% of men (95% CI = 24.7%, 27.8%) had a 20% or higher risk of general CVD. Racial differences were detected but were not significant after adjustment for socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: Average CVD risk among young adults is high. Population-based prevention strategies and improved detection and treatment of high-risk individuals are needed to reduce the future burden of CVD.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Clark, CJ; Alonso, A; Spencer, RA; Pencina, M; Williams, K; Everson-Rose, SA

Published Date

  • December 2014

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 104 / 12

Start / End Page

  • e108 - e115

PubMed ID

  • 25322295

Pubmed Central ID

  • 25322295

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1541-0048

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.2105/AJPH.2014.302148


  • eng

Conference Location

  • United States