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Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Cohn, DE; Havrilesky, LJ; Osann, K; Lipscomb, J; Hsieh, S; Walker, JL; Wright, AA; Alvarez, RD; Karlan, BY; Bristow, RE; DiSilvestro, PA ...
Published in: Gynecol Oncol
September 2015

OBJECTIVES: To determine the degree of consensus regarding the probabilities of outcomes associated with IP/IV and IV chemotherapy. METHODS: A survey was administered to an expert panel using the Delphi method. Ten ovarian cancer experts were asked to estimate outcomes for patients receiving IP/IV or IV chemotherapy. The clinical estimates were: 1) probability of completing six cycles of chemotherapy, 2) probability of surviving five years, 3) median survival, and 4) probability of ER/hospital visits during treatment. Estimates for two patients, one with a low comorbidity index (patient 1) and the other with a moderate index (patient 2), were included. The survey was administered in three rounds, and panelists could revise their subsequent responses based on review of the anonymous opinions of their peers. RESULTS: The ranges were smaller for IV compared with IP/IV therapy. Ranges decreased with each round. Consensus converged around outcomes related to IP/IV chemotherapy for: 1) completion of 6 cycles of therapy (type 1 patient, 62%, type 2 patient, 43%); 2) percentage of patients surviving 5 years (type 1 patient, 66%, type 2 patient, 47%); and 3) median survival (type 1 patient, 83 months, type 2 patient, 58 months). The group required three rounds to achieve consensus on the probabilities of ER/hospital visits (type 1 patient, 24%, type 2 patient, 35%). CONCLUSIONS: Initial estimates of survival and adverse events associated with IP/IV chemotherapy differ among experts. The Delphi process works to build consensus and may be a pragmatic tool to inform patients of their expected outcomes.

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Published In

Gynecol Oncol

DOI

EISSN

1095-6859

Publication Date

September 2015

Volume

138

Issue

3

Start / End Page

712 / 716

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Ovarian Neoplasms
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
  • Humans
  • Female
  • Delphi Technique
  • Consensus
  • 3215 Reproductive medicine
  • 3211 Oncology and carcinogenesis
  • 3202 Clinical sciences
  • 1114 Paediatrics and Reproductive Medicine
 

Citation

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Cohn, D. E., Havrilesky, L. J., Osann, K., Lipscomb, J., Hsieh, S., Walker, J. L., … Wenzel, L. (2015). Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice. Gynecol Oncol, 138(3), 712–716. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ygyno.2015.07.014
Cohn, David E., Laura J. Havrilesky, Kathryn Osann, Joseph Lipscomb, Susie Hsieh, Joan L. Walker, Alexi A. Wright, et al. “Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice.Gynecol Oncol 138, no. 3 (September 2015): 712–16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ygyno.2015.07.014.
Cohn DE, Havrilesky LJ, Osann K, Lipscomb J, Hsieh S, Walker JL, et al. Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice. Gynecol Oncol. 2015 Sep;138(3):712–6.
Cohn, David E., et al. “Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice.Gynecol Oncol, vol. 138, no. 3, Sept. 2015, pp. 712–16. Pubmed, doi:10.1016/j.ygyno.2015.07.014.
Cohn DE, Havrilesky LJ, Osann K, Lipscomb J, Hsieh S, Walker JL, Wright AA, Alvarez RD, Karlan BY, Bristow RE, DiSilvestro PA, Wakabayashi MT, Morgan R, Mukamel DB, Wenzel L. Consensus in controversy: The modified Delphi method applied to Gynecologic Oncology practice. Gynecol Oncol. 2015 Sep;138(3):712–716.
Journal cover image

Published In

Gynecol Oncol

DOI

EISSN

1095-6859

Publication Date

September 2015

Volume

138

Issue

3

Start / End Page

712 / 716

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Ovarian Neoplasms
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
  • Humans
  • Female
  • Delphi Technique
  • Consensus
  • 3215 Reproductive medicine
  • 3211 Oncology and carcinogenesis
  • 3202 Clinical sciences
  • 1114 Paediatrics and Reproductive Medicine