Evaluating Alternatives Involving Potential Fatalities

A critical aspect of many major decisions involves the possible loss of human life. Thus, in evaluating the alternatives, it is desirable to address this issue. This paper proposes a cardinal utility model for evaluating the potential fatalities and the uncertainty of their occurrence. It separates the overall consequences of fatalities into a personal direct impact and a societal indirect impact. Separate preference models are built for each impact and integrated to provide an overall evaluation of the potential fatalities. An assessment procedure is discussed and illustrated.

Duke Scholars

Author Ralph L. Keeney Fuqua School of Business