The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition


Journal Article

In the last few decades many methods have become available for forecasting. As always, when alternatives exist, choices need to be made so that an appropriate forecasting method can be selected and used for the specific situation being considered. This paper reports the results of a forecasting competition that provides information to facilitate such choice. Seven experts in each of the 24 methods forecasted up to 1001 series for six up to eighteen time horizons. The results of the competition are presented in this paper whose purpose is to provide empirical evidence about differences found to exist among the various extrapolative (time series) methods used in the competition. Copyright © 1982 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Makridakis, S; Andersen, A; Carbone, R; Fildes, R; Hibon, M; Lewandowski, R; Newton, J; Parzen, E; Winkler, R

Published Date

  • January 1, 1982

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 1 / 2

Start / End Page

  • 111 - 153

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1099-131X

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0277-6693

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1002/for.3980010202

Citation Source

  • Scopus