Robert L. Winkler
James B. Duke Distinguished Professor of Business Administration
Robert L. Winkler is James B. Duke Professor in the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University and also holds an appointment in the Department of Statistical Science at Duke. He is a member of the decision sciences area at Fuqua, and he served as Senior Associate Dean for Faculty and Research from 1991 through 1997. Professor Winkler received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. Prior to joining the Duke faculty in 1984, he was Distinguished Professor of Quantitative Business Analysis at Indiana University, and he has held visiting positions at the University of Washington, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria), Stanford University, and several times at INSEAD (Fontainebleau, France and Singapore).
Professor Winkler’s primary research areas include decision analysis, risk analysis, statistics, and forecasting. He has published more than 200 articles and several books, and has received support from the National Science Foundation and other sources. He was awarded the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for significant contributions to decision analysis and he has also been a recipient of the NCNB Faculty Award in the Fuqua School of Business. His research focuses on probability forecasting, the combination of forecasts, decision modeling, and Bayesian statistical models for inference and decision. He has held a number of editorial positions and has been an officer in several professional organizations.
Professor Winkler has taught courses in statistics and decision analysis in Fuqua’s MBA and EMBA programs. He taught the statistical models course in Fuqua’s Global Executive MBA Program from the program’s inception in 1996 until 2010, and he was the recipient of the Distinguished Teaching Award from the first GEMBA class. He also teaches a Ph.D. course in Bayesian inference and decision.
Professor Winkler’s primary research areas include decision analysis, risk analysis, statistics, and forecasting. He has published more than 200 articles and several books, and has received support from the National Science Foundation and other sources. He was awarded the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for significant contributions to decision analysis and he has also been a recipient of the NCNB Faculty Award in the Fuqua School of Business. His research focuses on probability forecasting, the combination of forecasts, decision modeling, and Bayesian statistical models for inference and decision. He has held a number of editorial positions and has been an officer in several professional organizations.
Professor Winkler has taught courses in statistics and decision analysis in Fuqua’s MBA and EMBA programs. He taught the statistical models course in Fuqua’s Global Executive MBA Program from the program’s inception in 1996 until 2010, and he was the recipient of the Distinguished Teaching Award from the first GEMBA class. He also teaches a Ph.D. course in Bayesian inference and decision.
Current Appointments & Affiliations
- James B. Duke Distinguished Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 1985
- Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 1984
- Professor of Statistical Science, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2007
Contact Information
- Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708-0120
- Fuqua Sch of Bus, Durham, NC 27708
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rwinkler@duke.edu
(919) 660-7729
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Fuqua Faculty Profile
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Professional Page
- Background
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Education, Training, & Certifications
- Ph.D., The University of Chicago 1966
- B.S., University of Illinois 1963
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Duke Appointment History
- Professor, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2009 - 2013
- Professor in the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1988 - 2008
- Research Professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University 1989 - 1997
- Recognition
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Awards & Honors
- Research
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Selected Grants
- Evaluation of Probability Forecasts awarded by National Science Foundation 1999 - 2002
- Minority Business Consulting Program awarded by Small Business Administration 1996 - 2001
- Collaborative Research on Dependence Assessment for Risk and Decision Analysis awarded by National Science Foundation 1995 - 1997
- Collaborative Research on Dependence Assessment for Decision and Risk Analysis awarded by National Science Foundation 1994 - 1995
- Collaborative Research on Flexible Modeling and Analysis for Information Aggregation awarded by National Science Foundation 1991 - 1994
- Collaborative Research in Decision, Risk, and Management Science: Flexible Information Aggregation awarded by National Science Foundation 1991 - 1992
- Collaborative Research: Foundations of Risk and Decision Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations awarded by National Science Foundation 1990 - 1992
- Foundation of Risk and Decision Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigators awarded by National Science Foundation 1990 - 1992
- Foundation Risk Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigation awarded by National Science Foundation 1988 - 1990
- Combining Dependent Information awarded by National Science Foundation 1987 - 1990
- Combining Dependent Information: Models and Issues awarded by National Science Foundation 1986 - 1989
- Publications & Artistic Works
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Selected Publications
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Books
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Winkler, Robert L. An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision. Probabilistic Pub, 2003.
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Winkler, R. L., R. L. Maridakis, and M. Deplas. PSI: Programmes de Statistique Interactif. Les Editions d’Organisation, 1988.
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Winkler, R. L., and S. Maridakis. ISP: Interactive Statistical Programs. St Paul, MN: West, 1986.
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Winkler, R. L. Statistical Methods. Edited by D. L. Harnett, 1975.
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Hays, William L., and Robert L. Winkler. Statistics: probability, inference, and decision. Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970.
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Winkler, R. L., S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, and E. Parzen. The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Method. Chichester, UK: Wiley, n.d.
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Academic Articles
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Lichtendahl, K. C., and R. L. Winkler. “Why do some combinations perform better than others?” International Journal of Forecasting 36, no. 1 (January 1, 2020): 142–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.027.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl, and V. R. R. Jose. “Probability forecasts and their combination: A research perspective.” Decision Analysis 16, no. 4 (January 1, 2019): 239–60. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2019.0391.Full Text
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Yao, Yuling, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, and Andrew Gelman. “Using Stacking to Average Bayesian Predictive Distributions (with Discussion).” Bayesian Analysis 13, no. 3 (September 2018): 917–1007. https://doi.org/10.1214/17-ba1091.Full Text
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Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance.” Journal of Risk and Insurance 85, no. 2 (June 1, 2018): 431–45. https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12222.Full Text
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McCardle, K. F., I. Tsetlin, and R. L. Winkler. “When to abandon a research project and search for a new one.” Operations Research 66, no. 3 (May 1, 2018): 799–813. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1701.Full Text
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Müller, A., M. Scarsini, I. Tsetlin, and R. L. Winkler. “Between first- and second-order stochastic dominance.” Management Science 63, no. 9 (September 1, 2017): 2933–47. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2486.Full Text
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Grushka-Cockayne, Y., K. C. Lichtendahl, V. R. R. Jose, and R. L. Winkler. “Quantile evaluation, sensitivity to bracketing, and sharing business payoffs.” Operations Research 65, no. 3 (May 1, 2017): 712–28. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1588.Full Text
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Gaba, A., I. Tsetlin, and R. L. Winkler. “Combining interval forecasts.” Decision Analysis 14, no. 1 (March 1, 2017): 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2016.0340.Full Text
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Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results.,” January 1, 2017.
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Winkler, Robert L. “The importance of communicating uncertainties in forecasts: overestimating the risks from winter storm Juno.” Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35, no. 3 (March 2015): 349–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12398.Full Text
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Tsetlin, I., R. L. Winkler, R. J. Huang, and L. Y. Tzeng. “Generalized almost stochastic dominance.” Operations Research 63, no. 2 (January 1, 2015): 363–77. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1340.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L. “Equal versus differential weighting in combining forecasts.” Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35, no. 1 (January 2015): 16–18. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12302.Full Text
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Lichtendahl, K. C., Y. Grushka-Cockayne, and R. L. Winkler. “Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles?” Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 1, 2013): 1594–1611. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1667.Full Text
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Johnstone, D. J. “Log-optimal economic evaluation of probability forecasts.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series a (Statistics in Society) 175, no. 3 (July 2012): 661–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.01011.x.Full Text
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Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Multiattribute one-switch utility.” Management Science 58, no. 3 (March 1, 2012): 602–5. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1299.Full Text
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Belloni, Alexandre, and Robert L. Winkler. “On multivariate quantiles under partial orders.” The Annals of Statistics 39, no. 2 (April 2011): 1125–79. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-aos863.Full Text
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Johnstone, D. J., V. R. R. Jose, and R. L. Winkler. “Tailored scoring rules for probabilities.” Decision Analysis 8, no. 4 (January 1, 2011): 256–68. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1110.0216.Full Text
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Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Multiattribute utility satisfying a preference for combining good with bad.” Management Science 55, no. 12 (December 1, 2009): 1942–52. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1082.Full Text
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Jose, V. R. R., and R. L. Winkler. “Evaluating quantile assessments.” Operations Research 57, no. 5 (September 1, 2009): 1287–97. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0665.Full Text
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Jose, V. R. R., R. F. Nau, and R. L. Winkler. “Sensitivity to distance and baseline distributions in forecast evaluation.” Management Science 55, no. 4 (April 1, 2009): 582–90. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0955.Full Text
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Jose, V. R. R., R. F. Nau, and R. L. Winkler. “Scoring rules, generalized entropy, and utility maximization.” Operations Research 56, no. 5 (September 1, 2008): 1146–57. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0498.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and V. R. R. Jose. “Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds.” Test 17, no. 2 (August 1, 2008): 251–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11749-008-0121-y.Full Text
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Jose, V. R. R., and R. L. Winkler. “Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results.” International Journal of Forecasting 24, no. 1 (January 1, 2008): 163–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.001.Full Text
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Nau, R., V. R. Jose, and R. Winkler. “Scoring rules, entropy, and imprecise probabilities.” Isipta 2007 Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, December 1, 2007, 307–15.
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Lichtendahl, K. C., and R. L. Winkler. “Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters.” Management Science 53, no. 11 (November 1, 2007): 1745–55. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0729.Full Text
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Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Decision making with multiattribute performance targets: The impact of changes in performance and target distributions.” Operations Research 55, no. 2 (March 1, 2007): 226–33. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1060.0343.Full Text
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Tsetlin, Ilia, and Robert L. Winkler. “On Equivalent Target-Oriented Formulations for Multiattribute Utility.” Decision Analysis 3, no. 2 (June 2006): 94–99. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1060.0068.Full Text
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Smith, J. E., and R. L. Winkler. “The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis.” Management Science 52, no. 3 (March 1, 2006): 311–22. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0451.Full Text
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Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Risky choices and correlated background risk.” Management Science 51, no. 9 (September 1, 2005): 1336–45. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0414.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L., and James E. Smith. “On uncertainty in medical testing.” Medical Decision Making : An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 24, no. 6 (November 2004): 654–58. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989x04271045.Full Text
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Tsetlin, I., A. Gaba, and R. L. Winkler. “Strategic choice of variability in multiround contests and contests with handicaps.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 29, no. 2 (September 1, 2004): 143–58. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:RISK.0000038941.44379.82.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L., and Robert T. Clemen. “Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments.” Decision Analysis 1, no. 3 (September 2004): 167–76. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1030.0008.Full Text
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Gaba, A., I. Tsetlin, and R. L. Winkler. “Modifying variability and correlations in winner-take-all contests.” Operations Research 52, no. 3 (May 1, 2004). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0098.Full Text
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Browne, R. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Winkler, R. L., Smith, J. E., and Fryback, D. G. (2002), "The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid," the american statistician, 56, 1-4: Comments by browne [1] (multiple letters).” American Statistician 56, no. 3 (August 1, 2002): 252–53. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313002209.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., J. E. Smith, and D. G. Fryback. “The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid.” American Statistician 56, no. 1 (January 1, 2002): 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313002753631295.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Why Bayesian analysis hasn't caught on in healthcare decision making.” International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 17, no. 1 (January 2001): 56–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/s026646230110406x.Full Text
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Smith, J. E., R. L. Winkler, and D. G. Fryback. “The first positive: computing positive predictive value at the extremes.” Annals of Internal Medicine 132, no. 10 (May 2000): 804–9. https://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-132-10-200005160-00008.Full Text
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Clemen, R. T., G. W. Fischer, and R. L. Winkler. “Assessing dependence: some experimental results.” Management Science 46, no. 8 (January 1, 2000): 1100–1115. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.8.1100.12023.Full Text
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Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis.” Risk Analysis 19, no. 2 (April 1, 1999): 187–203. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006917509560.Full Text
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Smith, J. E., and R. L. Winkler. “Casey's problem: Interpreting and evaluating a new test.” Interfaces 29, no. 3 (January 1, 1999): 63–76. https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.29.3.63.Full Text
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Boiney, Lindsley G., Robert L. Winkler, Rakesh K. Sarin, and David B. Matchar. “Combining Patient Utility with Health Status Assessment to Improve Medical Decision Making.” Journal of Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis 5, no. 4 (December 1996): 248–58. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1360(199612)5:4<248::aid-mcda107>3.3.co;2-h.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment.” Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54, no. 2–3 (November 1, 1996): 127–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(96)00070-1.Full Text
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Abramson, B., J. Brown, W. Edwards, A. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler. “Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather.” International Journal of Forecasting 12, no. 1 (January 1, 1996): 57–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(95)00664-8.Full Text
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Boiney, L. G., R. L. Winkler, R. K. Sarin, and D. B. Matchar. “Combining patient utility with health status assessment to improve medical decision making.” Journal of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis 5, no. 4 (January 1, 1996): 248–58. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1360(199612)5:4<248::AID-MCDA107>3.0.CO;2-Q.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., J. Muñoz, J. L. Cervera, J. M. Bernardo, G. Blattenberger, J. B. Kadane, D. V. Lindley, A. H. Murphy, R. M. Oliver, and D. Ríos-Insua. “Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities.” Test 5, no. 1 (January 1, 1996): 1–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02562681.Full Text
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Dawid, A. P., M. H. DeGroot, J. Mortera, R. Cooke, S. French, C. Genest, M. J. Schervish, D. V. Lindley, K. J. McConway, and R. L. Winkler. “Coherent combination of experts' opinions.” Test 4, no. 2 (December 1, 1995): 263–313. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02562628.Full Text
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Clemen, R. T., A. H. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler. “Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining.” International Journal of Forecasting 11, no. 1 (January 1, 1995): 133–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(94)02007-C.Full Text
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Gaba, A., and R. L. Winkler. “The impact of testing errors on value of information: A quality-control example.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 10, no. 1 (January 1, 1995): 5–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01211525.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., T. S. Wallsten, R. G. Whitfield, H. M. Richmond, S. R. Hayes, and A. S. Rosenbaum. “Assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure.” Operations Research 43, no. 1 (January 1, 1995): 19–28. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.43.1.19.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L. “Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules.” Management Science 40, no. 11 (November 1994): 1395–1405. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.11.1395.Full Text
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WINKLER, R. L. “VALUED-FOCUSED THINKING.” Sloan Management Review 36, no. 1 (September 1, 1994): 5–5.Link to Item
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Kadane, J. B., J. Girón, D. Peña, P. Fishburn, S. French, D. V. Lindley, G. Parmigiani, and R. L. Winkler. “Several Bayesians: A review.” Test 2, no. 1–2 (December 1, 1993): 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02562668.Full Text
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Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Aggregating point estimates. A flexible modeling approach.” Management Science 39, no. 4 (January 1, 1993): 501–16. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.39.4.501.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Several Bayesians: Multiple-Person Problems.” Test 2, no. 1–2 (1993): 25–29.
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Winkler, R. L., and R. M. Poses. “Evaluating and combining physicians' probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit.” Management Science 39, no. 12 (January 1, 1993): 1526–43. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.39.12.1526.Full Text
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Sarin, R. K., and R. L. Winkler. “Ambiguity and decision modeling: A preference-based approach.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5, no. 4 (October 1, 1992): 389–407. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00122577.Full Text
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Gaba, Anil, and Robert L. Winkler. “Implications of Errors in Survey Data: A Bayesian Model.” Management Science 38, no. 7 (July 1992): 913–25. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.7.913.Full Text
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McCardle, Kevin F., and Robert L. Winkler. “Repeated Gambles, Learning, and Risk Aversion.” Management Science 38, no. 6 (June 1992): 807–18. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.6.807.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L., and Robert T. Clemen. “Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts.” Operations Research 40, no. 3 (June 1992): 609–14. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.3.609.Full Text
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Miller, C. M., R. T. Clemen, and R. L. Winkler. “The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting 7, no. 4 (January 1, 1992): 515–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90035-8.Full Text
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Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting 7, no. 4 (January 1, 1992): 435–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90028-8.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “On seeking a best performance measure or a best forecasting method.” International Journal of Forecasting 8, no. 1 (January 1, 1992): 104–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90014-Z.Full Text
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WEST, M., and R. L. WINKLER. “DATA-BASE ERROR TRAPPING AND PREDICTION.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 86, no. 416 (December 1991): 987–96. https://doi.org/10.2307/2290515.Full Text Link to Item
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Winkler, R. L. “Ambiguity, probability, preference, and decision analysis.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4, no. 3 (July 1, 1991): 285–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00114158.Full Text
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Poses, R. M., C. Bekes, R. L. Winkler, W. E. Scott, and F. J. Copare. “Are two (inexperienced) heads better than one (experienced) head? Averaging house officers' prognostic judgments for critically ill patients.” Archives of Internal Medicine 150, no. 9 (September 1990): 1874–78. https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.1990.00390200068013.Full Text
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Clemen, Robert T., and Robert L. Winkler. “Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters.” Management Science 36, no. 7 (July 1990): 767–79. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L. “Decision Modeling and Rational Choice: AHP and Utility Theory.” Management Science 36, no. 3 (March 1990): 247–48. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.3.247.Full Text
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Edwards, W., D. A. Schum, and R. L. Winkler. “Murder and (of?) the likelihood principle: A Trialogue.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3, no. 2 (January 1, 1990): 75–89. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.3960030202.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Representing and Communicating Uncertainty.” Statistical Science 5, no. 1 (1990): 26–30.
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Winkler, R. L. “Comment: Representing and communicating uncertainty.” Statistical Science 5, no. 1 (January 1, 1990): 26–30. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177012249.Full Text
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Haves, S. R., A. S. Rosenbaum, T. S. Wallsten, R. G. Whitfield, R. L. Winkler, and H. Richmond. “A health risk assessment for use in setting the U.S. primary ozone standard.” Studies in Environmental Science 35, no. C (December 1, 1989): 851–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-1116(08)70648-4.Full Text
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MAKRIDAKIS, S., and R. L. WINKLER. “SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF POST-SAMPLE FORECASTING ERRORS.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C Applied Statistics 38, no. 2 (January 1, 1989): 331–42.Link to Item
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McCardle, K. F., and R. L. Winkler. “All Roads Lead to Risk Preference: A Turnpike Theorem for Conditionally Independent Returns.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 24, no. 1 (January 1, 1989): 13–28. https://doi.org/10.2307/2330745.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues.” International Journal of Forecasting 5, no. 4 (January 1, 1989): 605–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90018-6.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Uncertainty about processes that shift over time: Modeling and analysis.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7, no. 4 (January 1, 1989): 419–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1989.10509752.Full Text
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Kadane, J. B., and R. L. Winkler. “Separating probability elicitation from utilities.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 83, no. 402 (January 1, 1988): 357–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1988.10478605.Full Text
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Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “A general framework for forecast verification.” Monthly Weather Review 115, no. 7 (January 1, 1987): 1330–38. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1330:AGFFFV>2.0.CO;2.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L. “Expert Resolution.” Management Science 32, no. 3 (March 1986): 298–303. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.32.3.298.Full Text
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Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Combining economic forecasts.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4, no. 1 (January 1, 1986): 39–46. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1986.10509492.Full Text
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Clemen, Robert T., and Robert L. Winkler. “Combining Economic Forecasts.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 4, no. 1 (January 1986): 39–39. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391385.Full Text
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Conroy, R. M., and R. L. Winkler. “Market structure. The specialist as dealer and broker.” Journal of Banking and Finance 10, no. 1 (January 1, 1986): 21–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(86)90018-X.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Comment.” Statistical Science 1, no. 1 (January 1, 1986): 138–40. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177013828.Full Text
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Murphy, Allan H., Richard W. Katz, Robert L. Winkler, and Wu-Ron Hsu. “Repetitive Decision Making and the Value of Forecasts in the Cost‐Loss Ratio Situation: A Dynamic Model.” Monthly Weather Review 113, no. 5 (May 1985): 801–13. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0801:rdmatv>2.0.co;2.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L. “Dynamic Generalized Linear Models and Bayesian Forecasting: Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 80, no. 389 (March 1985): 95–95. https://doi.org/10.2307/2288049.Full Text
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Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “LIMITS FOR THE PRECISION AND VALUE OF INFORMATION FROM DEPENDENT SOURCES.” Operations Research 33, no. 2 (January 1, 1985): 427–42. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.33.2.427.Full Text
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Cohen, M. D., G. Huber, R. L. Keeney, A. H. Levis, L. L. Lopes, A. P. Sage, S. Sen, et al. “Research Needs and the Phenomena of Decisionmaking and Operations.” Ieee Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-15, no. 6 (January 1, 1985): 764–75. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.1985.6313460.Full Text
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Keeney, R. L., and R. L. Winkler. “EVALUATING DECISION STRATEGIES FOR EQUITY OF PUBLIC RISKS.” Operations Research 33, no. 5 (January 1, 1985): 955–70. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.33.5.955.Full Text
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Murphy, A. H., A. H. Wu-Ron Hsu, R. L. Winkler, and D. S. Wilks. “The use of probabilities in subjective quantitative precipitation forecasts: some experimental results.” Monthly Weather Review 113, no. 12 (January 1, 1985): 2075–89. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<2075:TUOPIS>2.0.CO;2.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Comment: Bayesian model building and forecasting.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 80, no. 389 (January 1, 1985): 95. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1985.10477138.Full Text
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Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Probability Forecasting in Meterology.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 79, no. 387 (September 1984): 489–489. https://doi.org/10.2307/2288395.Full Text
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Keeney, R. L., R. K. Sarin, and R. L. Winkler. “Analysis of alternative national ambient carbon monoxide standards.” Management Science 30, no. 4 (January 1, 1984): 518–28. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.30.4.518.Full Text
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Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Probability forecasting in meteorology.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 79, no. 387 (January 1, 1984): 489–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1984.10478075.Full Text
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Keeney, R. L., R. K. Sarin, and R. L. Winkler. “RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE STUDY OF ALTERNATIVE NATIONAL AMBIENT CARBON MONOXIDE STANDARDS.” Proceedings, Annual Meeting Air Pollution Control Association 1 (December 1, 1983).
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Goss, D. A., and R. L. Winkler. “Progression of myopia in youth: age of cessation.” American Journal of Optometry and Physiological Optics 60, no. 8 (August 1983): 651–58. https://doi.org/10.1097/00006324-198308000-00002.Full Text
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Goss, D. A., and R. L. Winkler. “Progression of myopia in youth: Age of cessation.” Optometry and Vision Science 60, no. 8 (January 1, 1983): 651–58.
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Makridakis, S., and R. L. Winkler. “AVERAGES OF FORECASTS: SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS.” Management Science 29, no. 7 (January 1, 1983): 987–96. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.29.9.987.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “The Effects of Combining Forecasts and the Improvement of the Overall Forecasting Process.” Journal of Forecasting 2 (1983): 293–94.
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Winkler, R. L., A. H. Murphy, and R. W. Katz. “The value of climate information: A decision‐analytic approach.” Journal of Climatology 3, no. 2 (January 1, 1983): 187–97. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370030208.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and S. Makridakis. “The Combination of Forecasts.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series a (General) 146, no. 2 (1983): 150–57.
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Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Subjective Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Some Experimental Results.” Monthly Weather Review 110, no. 9 (September 1982): 1288–97. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<1288:sptfse>2.0.co;2.Full Text
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Harpaz, G., W. Lee, and R. L. Winkler. “LEARNING, EXPERIMENTATION, AND THE OPTIMAL OUTPUT DECISIONS OF A COMPETITIVE FIRM.” Management Science 28, no. 6 (January 1, 1982): 589–603. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.28.6.589.Full Text
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Katz, R. W., A. H. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler. “Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: a dynamic decision-making approach.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 21, no. 4 (January 1, 1982): 518–31. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<0518:ATVOFF>2.0.CO;2.Full Text
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Makridakis, S., A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, and R. Winkler. “The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition.” Journal of Forecasting 1, no. 2 (January 1, 1982): 111–53. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980010202.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “State of the Art: RESEARCH DIRECTIONS IN DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY.” Decision Sciences 13, no. 4 (January 1, 1982): 517–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb01176.x.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L. “Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources.” Management Science 27, no. 4 (April 1981): 479–88. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.27.4.479.Full Text
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Conroy, R. M., and R. L. Winkler. “Informational Differences Between Limit and Market Orders for a Market Maker.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 16, no. 5 (January 1, 1981): 703–24. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331056.Full Text
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Eliashberg, J., and R. L. Winkler. “RISK SHARING AND GROUP DECISION MAKING.” Management Science 27, no. 11 (January 1, 1981): 1221–35. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.27.11.1221.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and R. K. Sarin. “Risk assessment: consulting the experts.” Environmental Professional 3, no. 3–4 (January 1, 1981): 265–76.
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Murphy, A. H., S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler. “Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).,” December 1, 1980.
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Sarin, Rakesh K., and Robert L. Winkler. “Performance-Based Incentive Plans.” Management Science 26, no. 11 (November 1980): 1131–44. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.26.11.1131.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L., and Daniel G. Brooks. “Competitive Bidding with Dependent Value Estimates.” Operations Research 28, no. 3-part-i (June 1980): 603–13. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.28.3.603.Full Text
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Kadane, J. B., J. M. Dickey, R. L. Winkler, W. S. Smith, and S. C. Peters. “Interactive elicitation of opinion for a normal linear model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, no. 372 (January 1, 1980): 845–54. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1980.10477562.Full Text
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Murphy, A. H., S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler. “Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).,” January 1, 1980.
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Murphy, A. H., S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler. “Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).” Bulletin, American Meteorological Society 61, no. 7 (January 1, 1980).
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Winkler, R. L., J. B. Kadane, R. L. Dickey, W. S. Smith, and S. C. Peters. “Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, no. 4 (1980): 845–54.
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Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program.” Bulletin American Meteorological Society 60, no. 1 (January 1, 1979): 12–19.
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Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “The use of probabilities in forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures.” Meteorological Magazine 108, no. 1288 (January 1, 1979): 317–29.
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Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results.,” January 1, 1979.
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Winkler, R. L., and L. A. Franklin. “Warner’s randomized response model: A Bayesian approach.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, no. 365 (January 1, 1979): 207–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10481639.Full Text
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Eliashberg, J., and R. L. Winkler. “ROLE OF ATTITUDE TOWARD RISK IN STRICTLY COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING SITUATIONS.” 24, no. 12 (January 1, 1978): 1231–41. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.24.12.1231.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Statisticians Can Matter: Comment.” The American Statistician 32, no. 2 (1978): 54–56.
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Winkler, R. L. “Comment.” American Statistician 32, no. 2 (January 1, 1978): 54–56. https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.1978.10479250.Full Text
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Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Experimental point and area precipitation probability forecasts for a forecast area with significant local effects.” Atmosphere 15, no. 2 (June 1, 1977): 61–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/00046973.1977.9648431.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 26, no. 1 (1977): 41–47.
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Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Can Weather Forecasters Formulate Reliable Probability Forecasts for a Forecast Area with Significant Local Effects.” National Weather Digest 2, no. 2 (1977): 2–9.
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Barry, C. B., and R. L. Winkler. “Nohstationarity and portfolio choice.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11, no. 2 (January 1, 1976): 217–35. https://doi.org/10.2307/2979051.Full Text
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Jaffe, J. F., and R. L. Winkler. “OPTIMAL SPECULATION AGAINST AN EFFICIENT MARKET.” The Journal of Finance 31, no. 1 (January 1, 1976): 49–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1976.tb03195.x.Full Text
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Matheson, J. E., and R. L. Winkler. “SCORING RULES FOR CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.” Management Science 22, no. 10 (January 1, 1976): 1087–96. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.10.1087.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and C. B. Barry. “Nonstationarity and Portfolio Choice.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11, no. 2 (1976): 217–35.
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Winkler, Robert L., and Allan H. Murphy. “Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Experimental Results.” Monthly Weather Review 104, no. 1 (January 1976): 86–95. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<0086:paappf>2.0.co;2.Full Text
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Marschak, J., M. H. Degroot, K. Borch, H. Chernoff, M. De Groot, R. Dorfman, W. Edwards, et al. “Personal probabilities of probabilities.” Theory and Decision 6, no. 2 (May 1, 1975): 121–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00169102.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions: Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 70, no. 2 (1975): 290–91.
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Winkler, R. L. “Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 70, no. 350 (January 1, 1975): 290–91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1975.10479859.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and C. B. Barry. “A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND REVISION.” The Journal of Finance 30, no. 1 (January 1, 1975): 179–92. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb03169.x.Full Text
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Britney, R. R., and R. L. Winkler. “Bayesian point estimation and prediction.” Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 26, no. 1 (December 1, 1974): 15–34. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02479801.Full Text
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Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Probability Forecasts: a Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 55, no. 12 (December 1974): 1449–52. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1974)055<1449:pfason>2.0.co;2.Full Text
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Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results.” Monthly Weather Review 102, no. 11 (November 1974): 784–94. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1974)102<0784:citfse>2.0.co;2.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Bayesian Models for Forecasting Future Security Prices.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 8 (1973): 387–405.
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Winkler, R. L. “Bayesianism: Its Unifying Role for Both the Foundations and the Applications of Statistics: Comments.” Bulleting of the International Statistical Institute 45, no. 4 (1973): 375–375.
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Winkler, R. L. “Information Aggregation in Probabilistic Prediction.” Ieee Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-3, no. 2 (January 1, 1973): 154–60. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.1973.5408497.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Subjective Probability Forecasting of Temperature: Some Experimental Results.” Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute 45, no. 2 (1973): 247–68.
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Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Experiments in the laboratory and the real world.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 10, no. 2 (January 1, 1973): 252–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90017-2.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L., Gary M. Roodman, and Robert R. Britney. “The Determination of Partial Moments.” Management Science 19, no. 3 (November 1972): 290–96. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.19.3.290.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “On Simpson's Paradox and the Sure-Thing Principle, and Some Probability Paradoxes in Choice from Among Random Alternatives: Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 2 (1972): 376–78.
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Winkler, R. L. “Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 338 (January 1, 1972): 376–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1972.10482391.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “A decision-theoretic approach to interval estimation.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 337 (January 1, 1972): 187–91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1972.10481224.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L., and L. L. Cummings. “On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 7, no. 1 (January 1, 1972): 63–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(72)90007-4.Full Text
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Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: Some Current Problems.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52, no. 4 (April 1971): 239–48. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1971)052<0239:fapfsc>2.0.co;2.Full Text
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Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: the Responses to a Questionnaire.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52, no. 3 (March 1971): 158–66. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1971)052<0158:fapftr>2.0.co;2.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 66, no. 4 (1971): 675–85.
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Winkler, R. L. “Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 66, no. 336 (January 1, 1971): 675–85. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329.Full Text
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Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation.” Acta Psychologica 34, no. C (January 1, 1970): 273–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(70)90023-5.Full Text
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WINKLER RL, Robert L., and Robert L. MURPHY AH. “NONLINEAR UTILITY AND THE PROBABILITY SCORE.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 9, no. 1 (January 1, 1970): 143–48.
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Winkler, R. L. “Tables of the nth Order Partial Moments about the Origin for the Standard Normal Distribution, n=1(1)6.” Mathematics of Computation 24 (1970): 995–995.
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Winkler, R. L. “Intuitive bayesian point estimation.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 5, no. 5 (January 1, 1970): 417–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(70)90032-2.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 64, no. 3 (1969): 1073–78.
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Winkler, R. L. “Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 64, no. 327 (January 1, 1969): 1073–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1969.10501037.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L. “The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions.” Management Science 15, no. 2 (October 1968). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.2.b61.Full Text
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Winkler, Robert L., and Allan H. Murphy. ““Good” Probability Assessors.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 7, no. 5 (October 1968): 751–58. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1968)007<0751:pa>2.0.co;2.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 3 (1967): 776–800.
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Winkler, R. L. “The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 4 (1967): 1105–20.
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Winkler, R. L. “The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 319 (January 1, 1967): 776–800. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1967.10500894.Full Text
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Winkler, R. L. “The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 320 (January 1, 1967): 1105–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1967.10500920.Full Text
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Book Sections
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Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Aggregating probability distributions.” In Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications, 154–76, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511611308.010.Full Text
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Scholarly Editions
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Denuit, Michel, Louis Eeckhoudt, Ilia Tsetlin, and Robert L. Winkler. “Multivariate Concave and Convex Stochastic Dominance,” April 23, 2010.
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Conference Papers
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Nau, R. F., V. R. R. Jose, and R. L. Winkler. “Duality between maximization of expected utility and minimization of relative entropy when probabilities are imprecise.” In Isipta 2009 Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 337–46, 2009.
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Winkler, R. L. “Evaluation of probabilities: A level playing field?” In Decision Science and Technology: Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards, edited by J. Shanteau, B. A. Mellers, and D. A. Schum, 155–70. KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS, 1999.Link to Item
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