Robert L. Winkler | Scholars@Duke

Robert L. Winkler
James B. Duke Professor of Business Administration

Robert L. Winkler is James B. Duke Professor in the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University and also holds an appointment in the Department of Statistical Science at Duke. He is a member of the decision sciences area at Fuqua, and he served as Senior Associate Dean for Faculty and Research from 1991 through 1997. Professor Winkler received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. Prior to joining the Duke faculty in 1984, he was Distinguished Professor of Quantitative Business Analysis at Indiana University, and he has held visiting positions at the University of Washington, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria), Stanford University, and several times at INSEAD (Fontainebleau, France and Singapore).

Professor Winkler’s primary research areas include decision analysis, risk analysis, statistics, and forecasting. He has published more than 200 articles and several books, and has received support from the National Science Foundation and other sources. He was awarded the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for significant contributions to decision analysis and he has also been a recipient of the NCNB Faculty Award in the Fuqua School of Business. His research focuses on probability forecasting, the combination of forecasts, decision modeling, and Bayesian statistical models for inference and decision. He has held a number of editorial positions and has been an officer in several professional organizations.

Professor Winkler has taught courses in statistics and decision analysis in Fuqua’s MBA and EMBA programs. He taught the statistical models course in Fuqua’s Global Executive MBA Program from the program’s inception in 1996 until 2010, and he was the recipient of the Distinguished Teaching Award from the first GEMBA class. He also teaches a Ph.D. course in Bayesian inference and decision.

Current Appointments & Affiliations

James B. Duke Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 1985
Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 1984
Professor of Statistical Science, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2007

Contact Information

Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708-0120
Fuqua Sch Of Bus, Durham, NC 27708
rwinkler@duke.edu (919) 660-7729
Fuqua Faculty Profile
Professional Page

Background
Education, Training, & Certifications
- Ph.D., University of Chicago 1966
- B.S., University of Illinois 1963
Duke Appointment History
- Professor in the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1988 - 2008
- Research Professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University 1989 - 1997
Recognition
Awards & Honors
- Fellows. Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. 2006
- ASA Fellows. American Statistical Association. 1983
Research
Selected Grants
- Evaluation of Probability Forecasts awarded by National Science Foundation 1999 - 2002
- (96-0158) Minority Business Consulting Program awarded by Small Business Administration 1996 - 2001
- (95-0036) Collaborative Research on Dependence Assessment for Risk and Decision Analysis awarded by National Science Foundation 1995 - 1997
- (96-0432) Collaborative Research on Dependence Assessment for Risk and Decision Analysis awarded by National Science Foundation 1995 - 1997
- (94-0084) Collaborative Research on Dependence Assessment for Decision and Risk Analysis awarded by National Science Foundation 1994 - 1995
- (93-0501) Collaborative Research on Flexible Modeling and Analysis for Information Aggregation awarded by National Science Foundation 1991 - 1994
- (92-0963) Collaborative Research on Flexible Modeling and Analysis for Information Aggregation awarded by National Science Foundation 1991 - 1993
- (91-0052) Collaborative Research in Decision, Risk, and Management Science: Flexible Information Aggregation awarded by National Science Foundation 1991 - 1992
- (92-0055) Collaborative Research: Foundations of Risk and Decision Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations awarded by National Science Foundation 1990 - 1992
- (90-0353) Foundation of Risk and Decision Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigators awarded by National Science Foundation 1990 - 1992
- (90-0035) Foundation Risk Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigation awarded by National Science Foundation 1988 - 1990
- (87-0317) Combining Dependent Information awarded by National Science Foundation 1987 - 1990
- (88-0539) Combining Dependent Information: Models and Issues awarded by National Science Foundation 1986 - 1989
Publications & Artistic Works
Selected Publications
- Books
  - Winkler, RL. An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision. Probabilistic Pub, January 1, 2003.
  - Winkler, RL, Maridakis, RL, and Deplas, M. PSI: Programmes de Statistique Interactif. Les Editions d'Organisation, 1988.
  - Winkler, RL, and Maridakis, S. ISP: Interactive Statistical Programs. St Paul, MN: West, 1986.
  - Winkler, RL. Statistical Methods. Edited by DL Harnett. 1975.
  - Hays, WL, and Winkler, RL. Statistics: probability, inference, and decision. Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970.
  - Winkler, RL, Makridakis, S, Andersen, A, Carbone, R, Fildes, R, Hibon, M, Lewandowski, R, Newton, J, and Parzen, E. The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Method. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
- Book Sections
  - Clemen, RT, and Winkler, RL. "Aggregating probability distributions." In Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications, 154-176. January 1, 2007. Full Text
- Conference Papers
  - Nau, RF, Jose, VRR, and Winkler, RL. "Duality Between Maximization of Expected Utility and Minimization of Relative Entropy When Probabilities are Imprecise." 2009. Link to Item
  - Winkler, RL. "Evaluation of probabilities: A level playing field?." 1999. Link to Item
- Journal Articles
  - Yao, Y, Vehtari, A, Simpson, D, Gelman, A, Clarke, B, Li, M, Grunwald, P, de Heide, R, Dawid, AP, Yoo, WW, Winkler, RL, Jose, VRR, Lichtendahl, KC, Grushka-Cockayne, Y, McAlinn, K, Aastveit, KA, West, M, Shin, M, Zhou, T, Hoogerheide, L, van Dijk, HK, Bakka, HC, Castro-Camilo, D, Franco-Villoria, M, Freni-Sterrantino, A, Huser, R, Opitz, T, Rue, H, Ferreira, MAR, Pericchi, L, Franck, CT, Belitser, E, Nurushev, N, Iacopini, M, and Tonellato, S. "Using Stacking to Average Bayesian Predictive Distributions (with Discussion)." Bayesian Analysis 13, no. 3 (September 1, 2018): 917-1003. (Academic Article) Full Text Link to Item
  - McCardle, KF, Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "When to Abandon a Research Project and Search for a New One." Operations Research 66, no. 3 (June 2018): 799-813. Full Text
  - Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance." Journal of Risk and Insurance 85, no. 2 (June 2018): 431-445. Full Text
  - Müller, A, Scarsini, M, Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "Between First- and Second-Order Stochastic Dominance." Management Science 63, no. 9 (September 2017): 2933-2947. Full Text
  - Grushka-Cockayne, Y, Lichtendahl, KC, Jose, VRR, and Winkler, RL. "Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs." Operations Research 65, no. 3 (June 2017): 712-728. Full Text
  - Gaba, A, Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "Combining Interval Forecasts." Decision Analysis 14, no. 1 (March 2017): 1-20. Full Text
  - Tsetlin, I, Winkler, RL, Huang, RJ, and Tzeng, LY. "Generalized Almost Stochastic Dominance." Operations Research 63, no. 2 (April 2015): 363-377. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "The importance of communicating uncertainties in forecasts: overestimating the risks from winter storm Juno." Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35, no. 3 (March 2015): 349-353. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Equal versus differential weighting in combining forecasts." Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35, no. 1 (January 2015): 16-18. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Equal Versus Differential Weighting in Combining Forecasts." Risk Analysis 35, no. 1 (January 1, 2015): 16-18. Full Text
  - Jr, LKC, Grushka-Cockayne, Y, and Winkler, RL. "Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles?." MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 59, no. 7 (July 2013): 1594-1611. Full Text Link to Item
  - Johnstone, DJ. "Log-optimal economic evaluation of probability forecasts." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 175, no. 3 (July 2012): 661-689. Full Text
  - Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "Multiattribute one-switch utility." Management Science 58, no. 3 (2012): 602-605. Full Text
  - Johnstone, DJ, Jose, VRR, and Winkler, RL. "Tailored scoring rules for probabilities." Decision Analysis 8, no. 4 (2011): 256-268.
  - Jose, VRR, Nau, RF, and Winkler, RL. "Sensitivity to distance and baseline distributions in forecast evaluation." Management Science 55, no. 4 (2009): 582-590. Full Text
  - Jose, VRR, and Winkler, RL. "Evaluating quantile assessments." Operations Research 57, no. 5 (2009): 1287-1297. Full Text
  - Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "Multiattribute utility satisfying a preference for combining good with bad." Management Science 55, no. 12 (2009): 1942-1952. Full Text
  - Jose, VRR, Nau, RF, and Winkler, RL. "Scoring rules, generalized entropy, and utility maximization." Operations Research 56, no. 5 (2008): 1146-1157. Full Text
  - Jose, VRR, and Winkler, RL. "Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results." International Journal of Forecasting 24, no. 1 (January 2008): 163-169. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Jose, VRR. "Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds." Test 17, no. 2 (2008): 251-255. Full Text
  - Jr, KCL, and Winkler, RL. "Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters." Management Science 53, no. 11 (2007): 1745-1755. Full Text
  - Nau, R, Jose, VR, and Winkler, R. "Scoring rules, entropy, and imprecise probabilities." ISIPTA 2007 - Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (2007): 307-315.
  - Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "Decision making with multiattribute performance targets: The impact of changes in performance and target distributions." Operations Research 55, no. 2 (2007): 226-233. Full Text
  - Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "On Equivalent Target-Oriented Formulations for Multiattribute Utility." Decision Analysis 3, no. 2 (June 2006): 94-99. Full Text
  - Smith, JE, and Winkler, RL. "The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis." Management Science 52, no. 3 (2006): 311-322. Full Text
  - Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "Risky choices and correlated background risk." Management Science 51, no. 9 (2005): 1336-1345. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Smith, JE. "On uncertainty in medical testing." Medical Decision Making 24, no. 6 (November 2004): 654-658. Full Text
  - Gaba, A, Tsetlin, I, and Winkler, RL. "Modifying Variability and Correlations in Winner-Take-All Contests." Operations Research 52, no. 3 (June 2004): 384-395. Full Text
  - Tsetlin, I, Gaba, A, and Winkler, RL. "Strategic choice of variability in multiround contests and contests with handicaps." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 29, no. 2 (2004): 143-158. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Clemen, RT. "Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments." Decision Analysis 1 (2004): 167-176. Full Text
  - Browne, RH, and Winkler, RL. "Winkler, R. L., Smith, J. E., and Fryback, D. G. (2002), "The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid," the american statistician, 56, 1-4: Comments by browne [1] (multiple letters)." American Statistician 56, no. 3 (2002): 252-253. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, Smith, JE, and Fryback, DG. "The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid." American Statistician 56, no. 1 (2002): 1-4. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Why Bayesian analysis hasn't caught on in healthcare decision making." Int J Technol Assess Health Care 17, no. 1 (2001): 56-66. Link to Item
  - Clemen, RT, Fischer, GW, and Winkler, RL. "Assessing Dependence: Some Experimental Results." Management Science 46, no. 8 (August 2000): 1100-1115. Full Text
  - Smith, JE, Winkler, RL, and Fryback, DG. "The first positive: computing positive predictive value at the extremes." Ann Intern Med 132, no. 10 (May 16, 2000): 804-809. Link to Item
  - Clemen, RT, and Winkler, RL. "Combining Probability Distributions From Experts in Risk Analysis." Risk Analysis 19, no. 2 (April 1999): 187-203. Full Text
  - Smith, JE, and Winkler, RL. "Casey's problem: Interpreting and evaluating a new test." Interfaces 29, no. 3 (1999): 63-76.
  - Boiney, LG, Winkler, RL, Sarin, RK, and Matchar, DB. "Combining Patient Utility with Health Status Assessment to Improve Medical Decision Making." Journal of Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis 5, no. 4 (December 1996): 248-258. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment." Reliability Engineering & System Safety 54, no. 2-3 (November 1996): 127-132. Full Text
  - Abramson, B, Brown, J, Edwards, W, Murphy, A, and Winkler, RL. "Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather." International Journal of Forecasting 12, no. 1 (1996): 57-71. Full Text
  - Boiney, LG, Winkler, RL, Sarin, RK, and Matchar, DB. "Combining patient utility with health status assessment to improve medical decision making." Journal of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis 5, no. 4 (January 1, 1996): 248-258. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, Muñoz, J, Cervera, JL, Bernardo, JM, Blattenberger, G, Kadane, JB, Lindley, DV, Murphy, AH, Oliver, RM, and Ríos-Insua, D. "Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities." Test 5, no. 1 (1996): 1-60. Full Text
  - Clemen, RT, Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining." International Journal of Forecasting 11, no. 1 (1995): 133-145.
  - Dawid, AP, DeGroot, MH, Mortera, J, Cooke, R, French, S, Genest, C, Schervish, MJ, Lindley, DV, McConway, KJ, and Winkler, RL. "Coherent combination of experts' opinions." Test 4, no. 2 (1995): 263-313. Full Text
  - Gaba, A, and Winkler, RL. "The impact of testing errors on value of information: A quality-control example." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 10, no. 1 (1995): 5-13. Full Text
  - WINKLER, RL, WALLSTEN, TS, WHITFIELD, RG, RICHMOND, HM, HAYES, SR, and ROSENBAUM, AS. "AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK OF CHRONIC LUNG INJURY ATTRIBUTABLE TO LONG-TERM OZONE EXPOSURE." OPERATIONS RESEARCH 43, no. 1 (1995): 19-28. Full Text Link to Item
  - Winkler, RL, Wallsten, TS, Whitfield, RG, Richmond, HM, Hayes, SR, and Rosenbaum, AS. "Assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure." Operations Research 43, no. 1 (1995): 19-28.
  - WINKLER, RL. "EVALUATING PROBABILITIES - ASYMMETRIC SCORING RULES." MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 40, no. 11 (November 1994): 1395-1405. Full Text Link to Item
  - WINKLER, RL. "VALUED-FOCUSED THINKING." SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW 36, no. 1 (1994): 5-5. Link to Item
  - Clemen, RT, and Winkler, RL. "Aggregating point estimates. A flexible modeling approach." Management Science 39, no. 4 (1993): 501-516.
  - Kadane, JB, Girón, J, Peña, D, Fishburn, P, French, S, Lindley, DV, Parmigiani, G, and Winkler, RL. "Several Bayesians: A review." Test 2, no. 1-2 (1993): 1-32. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Poses, RM. "Evaluating and combining physicians' probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit." Management Science 39, no. 12 (1993): 1526-1543.
  - Winkler, RL. "Several Bayesians: Multiple-Person Problems." TEST 2, no. 1-2 (1993): 25-29.
  - GABA, A, and WINKLER, RL. "IMPLICATIONS OF ERRORS IN SURVEY DATA - A BAYESIAN MODEL." MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 38, no. 7 (July 1992): 913-925. Full Text Link to Item
  - MCCARDLE, KF, and WINKLER, RL. "REPEATED GAMBLES, LEARNING, AND RISK-AVERSION." MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 38, no. 6 (June 1992): 807-818. Full Text Link to Item
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts." International Journal of Forecasting 7, no. 4 (March 1992): 435-455. Full Text
  - Miller, CM, Clemen, RT, and Winkler, RL. "The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts." International Journal of Forecasting 7, no. 4 (1992): 515-529.
  - Sarin, RK, and Winkler, RL. "Ambiguity and decision modeling: A preference-based approach." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5, no. 4 (1992): 389-407. Full Text
  - WINKLER, RL, and CLEMEN, RT. "SENSITIVITY OF WEIGHTS IN COMBINING FORECASTS." OPERATIONS RESEARCH 40, no. 3 (1992): 609-614. Full Text Link to Item
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "On seeking a best performance measure or a best forecasting method." International Journal of Forecasting 8, no. 1 (1992): 104-107. Full Text
  - WEST, M, and WINKLER, RL. "DATA-BASE ERROR TRAPPING AND PREDICTION." JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 86, no. 416 (December 1991): 987-996. Full Text Link to Item
  - West, M, and Winkler, RL. "Data base error trapping and prediction." Journal of the American Statistical Association 86, no. 416 (January 1, 1991): 987-996. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Ambiguity, probability, preference, and decision analysis." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4, no. 3 (1991): 285-297. Full Text
  - Poses, RM, Bekes, C, Winkler, RL, Scott, WE, and Copare, FJ. "Are two (inexperienced) heads better than one (experienced) head? Averaging house officers' prognostic judgments for critically ill patients." Archives of Internal Medicine 150, no. 9 (September 1990): 1874-1878. Full Text
  - CLEMEN, RT, and WINKLER, RL. "UNANIMITY AND COMPROMISE AMONG PROBABILITY FORECASTERS." MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 36, no. 7 (July 1990): 767-779. Full Text Link to Item
  - Edwards, W, Schum, DA, and Winkler, RL. "Murder and (of?) the likelihood principle: A Trialogue." Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3, no. 2 (April 1990): 75-89. Full Text
  - WINKLER, RL. "DECISION MODELING AND RATIONAL CHOICE - AHP AND UTILITY-THEORY." MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 36, no. 3 (March 1990): 247-248. Full Text Link to Item
  - Winkler, RL. "Representing and Communicating Uncertainty." Statistical Science 5, no. 1 (1990): 26-30.
  - Winkler, RL. "Comment: Representing and communicating uncertainty." Statistical Science 5, no. 1 (January 1, 1990): 26-30. Full Text
  - WINKLER, RL. "UNCERTAINTY ABOUT PROCESSES THAT SHIFT OVER TIME - MODELING AND ANALYSIS - COMMENT." JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS 7, no. 4 (October 1989): 419-422. Link to Item
  - MCCARDLE, KF, and WINKLER, RL. "ALL ROADS LEAD TO RISK PREFERENCE - A TURNPIKE THEOREM FOR CONDITIONALLY INDEPENDENT RETURNS." JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS 24, no. 1 (March 1989): 13-28. Full Text Link to Item
  - Haves, SR, Rosenbaum, AS, Wallsten, TS, Whitfield, RG, Winkler, RL, and Richmond, H. "A health risk assessment for use in setting the U.S. primary ozone standard." Studies in Environmental Science 35, no. C (1989): 851-867. Full Text
  - MAKRIDAKIS, S, and WINKLER, RL. "SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF POST-SAMPLE FORECASTING ERRORS." JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS 38, no. 2 (1989): 331-342. Link to Item
  - Winkler, RL. "Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues." International Journal of Forecasting 5, no. 4 (1989): 605-609. Full Text
  - KADANE, JB, and WINKLER, RL. "SEPARATING PROBABILITY ELICITATION FROM UTILITIES." JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 83, no. 402 (June 1988): 357-363. Link to Item
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "A general framework for forecast verification." Monthly Weather Review 115, no. 7 (1987): 1330-1338.
  - WINKLER, RL. "EXPERT RESOLUTION." MANAGEMENT SCIENCE 32, no. 3 (March 1986): 298-303. Full Text Link to Item
  - Winkler, RL. "[Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography]: Comment." Statistical Science 1, no. 1 (February 1986): 138-140. Full Text
  - CLEMEN, RT, and WINKLER, RL. "COMBINING ECONOMIC FORECASTS." JOURNAL OF BUSINESS & ECONOMIC STATISTICS 4, no. 1 (January 1986): 39-46. Full Text Link to Item
  - Clemen, RT, and Winkler, RL. "Combining Economic Forecasts." Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 4, no. 1 (January 1986): 39-46. Full Text
  - Conroy, RM, and Winkler, RL. "Market structure. The specialist as dealer and broker." Journal of Banking and Finance 10, no. 1 (1986): 21-36. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Comment Bayesian Model Building and Forecasting." Journal of the American Statistical Association 80, no. 389 (March 1985): 95-95. Full Text
  - Clemen, RT, and Winkler, RL. "LIMITS FOR THE PRECISION AND VALUE OF INFORMATION FROM DEPENDENT SOURCES." Operations Research 33, no. 2 (1985): 427-442.
  - Cohen, MD, Huber, G, Keeney, RL, Levis, AH, Lopes, LL, Sage, AP, Sen, S, Whinston, AB, Winkler, RL, Winterfeldt, DV, and al, E. "RESEARCH NEEDS AND THE PHENOMENA OF DECISIONMAKING AND OPERATIONS." IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-15, no. 6 (1985): 764-775.
  - Keeney, RL, and Winkler, RL. "EVALUATING DECISION STRATEGIES FOR EQUITY OF PUBLIC RISKS." Operations Research 33, no. 5 (1985): 955-970.
  - MURPHY, AH, KATZ, RW, WINKLER, RL, and HSU, WR. "REPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING AND THE VALUE OF FORECASTS IN THE COST-LOSS RATIO SITUATION - A DYNAMIC-MODEL." MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 113, no. 5 (1985): 801-813. Full Text Link to Item
  - Murphy, AH, Hsu, W-R, Winkler, RL, and Wilks, DS. "The use of probabilities in subjective quantitative precipitation forecasts: some experimental results." Monthly Weather Review 113, no. 12 (1985): 2075-2089.
  - WINKLER, RL. "DYNAMIC GENERALIZED LINEAR-MODELS AND BAYESIAN FORECASTING - BAYESIAN MODEL-BUILDING AND FORECASTING - COMMENT." Journal of the American Statistical Association 80, no. 389 (January 1, 1985): 95-95. (Academic Article) Full Text Link to Item
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Probability Forecasting in Meteorology." Journal of the American Statistical Association 79, no. 387 (September 1984): 489-500. Full Text
  - Keeney, RL, Sarin, RK, and Winkler, RL. "Analysis of alternative national ambient carbon monoxide standards." Management Science 30, no. 4 (1984): 518-528.
  - MURPHY, AH, and WINKLER, RL. "PROBABILITY FORECASTING IN METEOROLOGY." JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION 79, no. 387 (1984): 489-500. Full Text Link to Item
  - Goss, DA, and Winkler, RL. "Progression of myopia in youth: age of cessation." American journal of optometry and physiological optics 60, no. 8 (August 1983): 651-658.
  - Goss, DA, and Winkler, RL. "Progression of myopia in youth: Age of cessation." American Journal of Optometry and Physiological Optics 60, no. 8 (1983): 651-658.
  - Keeney, RL, Sarin, RK, and Winkler, RL. "RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE STUDY OF ALTERNATIVE NATIONAL AMBIENT CARBON MONOXIDE STANDARDS." Proceedings, Annual Meeting - Air Pollution Control Association 1 (1983).
  - Makridakis, S, and Winkler, RL. "AVERAGES OF FORECASTS: SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS." Management Science 29, no. 7 (1983): 987-996.
  - Winkler, RL, Murphy, AH, and Katz, RW. "The value of climate information: a decision-analytic approach." Journal of Climatology 3, no. 2 (1983): 187-197.
  - Winkler, RL, and Makridakis, S. "The Combination of Forecasts." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) 146, no. 2 (1983): 150-157.
  - Winkler, RL. "The Effects of Combining Forecasts and the Improvement of the Overall Forecasting Process." Journal of Forecasting 2 (1983): 293-294.
  - Winkler, RL. "State of the Art: RESEARCH DIRECTIONS IN DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY*." Decision Sciences 13, no. 4 (October 1982): 517-533. Full Text
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Subjective Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Some Experimental Results." Monthly Weather Review 110, no. 9 (September 1982): 1288-1297. Full Text
  - Katz, RW, Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Assessing the Value of Frost Forecasts to Orchardists: A Dynamic Decision-Making Approach." Journal of Applied Meteorology 21, no. 4 (April 1982): 518-531. Full Text
  - Makridakis, S, Andersen, A, Carbone, R, Fildes, R, Hibon, M, Lewandowski, R, Newton, J, Parzen, E, and Winkler, R. "The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition." Journal of Forecasting 1, no. 2 (April 1982): 111-153. Full Text
  - Harpaz, G, Lee, W, and Winkler, RL. "LEARNING, EXPERIMENTATION, AND THE OPTIMAL OUTPUT DECISIONS OF A COMPETITIVE FIRM." Management Science 28, no. 6 (1982): 589-603.
  - Winkler, RL. "Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources." Management Science 27, no. 4 (April 1981): 479-488. Full Text
  - CONROY, RM, and WINKLER, RL. "INFORMATIONAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LIMIT AND MARKET ORDERS FOR A MARKET MAKER." JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL AND QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS 16, no. 5 (1981): 703-724. Full Text Link to Item
  - Eliashberg, J, and Winkler, RL. "RISK SHARING AND GROUP DECISION MAKING." Management Science 27, no. 11 (1981): 1221-1235.
  - Winkler, RL, and Sarin, RK. "Risk assessment: consulting the experts." Environmental Professional 3, no. 3-4 (1981): 265-276.
  - Kadane, JB, Dickey, JM, Winkler, RL, Smith, WS, and Peters, SC. "Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model." Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, no. 372 (December 1980): 845-854. Full Text
  - Sarin, RK, and Winkler, RL. "Performance-Based Incentive Plans." Management Science 26, no. 11 (November 1980): 1131-1144. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Brooks, DG. "Competitive Bidding with Dependent Value Estimates." Operations Research 28, no. 3-part-i (June 1980): 603-613. Full Text
  - Murphy, AH, Lichtenstein, S, Fischhoff, B, and Winkler, RL. "Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon)." (January 1, 1980).
  - Murphy, AH, Lichtenstein, S, Fischhoff, B, and Winkler, RL. "Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon)." Bulletin, American Meteorological Society 61, no. 7 (January 1, 1980).
  - Murphy, AH, Lichtenstein, S, Fischhoff, B, and Winkler, RL. "Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon)." Bulletin, American Meteorological Society 61, no. 7 (1980).
  - Winkler, RL, Kadane, JB, Dickey, RL, Smith, WS, and Peters, SC. "Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model." Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, no. 4 (1980): 845-854.
  - Winkler, RL, and Franklin, LA. "Warner's Randomized Response Model: A Bayesian Approach." Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, no. 365 (March 1979): 207-214. Full Text
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program." Bulletin American Meteorological Society 60, no. 1 (1979): 12-19.
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "The use of probabilities in forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures." Meteorological Magazine 108, no. 1288 (1979): 317-329.
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results." (1979).
  - Winkler, RL. "Comment." The American Statistician 32, no. 2 (May 1978): 54-56. Full Text
  - Eliashberg, J, and Winkler, RL. "ROLE OF ATTITUDE TOWARD RISK IN STRICTLY COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING SITUATIONS." 24, no. 12 (1978): 1231-1241.
  - Winkler, RL. "Statisticians Can Matter: Comment." The American statistician 32, no. 2 (1978): 54-56.
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Experimental point and area precipitation probability forecasts for a forecast area with significant local effects." Atmosphere 15, no. 2 (June 1, 1977): 61-78. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 26, no. 1 (1977): 41-47.
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "Can Weather Forecasters Formulate Reliable Probability Forecasts for a Forecast Area with Significant Local Effects." National Weather Digest 2, no. 2 (1977): 2-9.
  - Barry, CB, and Winkler, RL. "Nonstationarity and Portfolio Choice." The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11, no. 2 (June 1976): 217-217. Full Text
  - Jaffe, JF, and Winkler, RL. "OPTIMAL SPECULATION AGAINST AN EFFICIENT MARKET*." The Journal of Finance 31, no. 1 (March 1976): 49-61. Full Text
  - Matheson, JE, and Winkler, RL. "SCORING RULES FOR CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS." Management Science 22, no. 10 (1976): 1087-1096.
  - Winkler, RL, and Barry, CB. "Nonstationarity and Portfolio Choice." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11, no. 2 (1976): 217-235.
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Experimental Results." Monthly Weather Review 104, no. 1 (January 1976): 86-95. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Comment." Journal of the American Statistical Association 70, no. 350 (June 1975): 290-291. Full Text
  - Marschak, J, Degroot, MH, Marschak, J, Borch, K, Chernoff, H, De Groot, M, Dorfman, R, Edwards, W, Ferguson, TS, Miyasawa, K, Randolph, P, Savage, LJ, Schlaifer, R, and Winkler, RL. "Personal probabilities of probabilities." Theory and Decision 6, no. 2 (May 1975): 121-153. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Barry, CB. "A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND REVISION." The Journal of Finance 30, no. 1 (March 1975): 179-192. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions: Comment." Journal of the American Statistical Association 70, no. 2 (1975): 290-291.
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Probability Forecasts: a Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 55, no. 12 (December 1974): 1449-1452. Full Text
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results." Monthly Weather Review 102, no. 11 (November 1974): 784-794. Full Text
  - Britney, RR, and Winkler, RL. "Bayesian point estimation and prediction." Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 26, no. 1 (1974): 15-34. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "Subjective Probability Forecasting of Temperature: Some Experimental Results." Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute 45, no. 2 (1973): 247-268.
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "Experiments in the laboratory and the real world." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 10, no. 2 (1973): 252-270. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "INFORMATION AGGREGATION IN PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION." IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-3, no. 2 (1973): 154-160.
  - Winkler, RL. "Bayesian Models for Forecasting Future Security Prices." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 8 (1973): 387-405.
  - Winkler, RL. "Bayesianism: Its Unifying Role for Both the Foundations and the Applications of Statistics: Comments." Bulleting of the International Statistical Institute 45, no. 4 (1973): 375-375.
  - Winkler, RL, Roodman, GM, and Britney, RR. "The Determination of Partial Moments." Management Science 19, no. 3 (November 1972): 290-296. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Interval Estimation." Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 337 (March 1972): 187-191. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL, and Cummings, LL. "On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 7, no. 1 (February 1972): 63-76. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "On Simpson's Paradox and the Sure-Thing Principle, and Some Probability Paradoxes in Choice from Among Random Alternatives: Comment." Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 2 (1972): 376-378.
  - Winkler, RL. "Comment." Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 338 (January 1, 1972): 376-378. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results." Journal of the American Statistical Association 66, no. 336 (December 1971): 675-685. Full Text
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: Some Current Problems." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52, no. 4 (April 1971): 239-248. Full Text
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: the Responses to a Questionnaire." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52, no. 3 (March 1971): 158-166. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results." Journal of the American Statistical Association 66, no. 4 (1971): 675-685.
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation." Acta Psychologica 34, no. C (1970): 273-286. Full Text
  - WINKLER, R, and MURPHY, A. "NONLINEAR UTILITY AND THE PROBABILITY SCORE." Journal of Applied Meteorology 9, no. 1 (1970): 143-148.
  - Winkler, RL. "Tables of the nth Order Partial Moments about the Origin for the Standard Normal Distribution, n=1(1)6." Mathematics of Computation 24 (1970): 995-995.
  - Winkler, RL. "Intuitive bayesian point estimation." Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 5, no. 5 (1970): 417-429.
  - Winkler, RL. "Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors." Journal of the American Statistical Association 64, no. 327 (September 1969): 1073-1078. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors." Journal of the American Statistical Association 64, no. 3 (1969): 1073-1078.
  - Winkler, RL, and Murphy, AH. "“Good” Probability Assessors." Journal of Applied Meteorology 7, no. 5 (October 1968): 751-758. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions." Management Science 15, no. 2 (October 1968): B-61-B-75. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions." Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 320 (December 1967): 1105-1120. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis." Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 319 (September 1967): 776-800. Full Text
  - Winkler, RL. "The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis." Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 3 (1967): 776-800.
  - Winkler, RL. "The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions." Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 4 (1967): 1105-1120.
  - Belloni, A, and Winkler, RL. "On multivariate quantiles under partial orders." Annals of Statistics 39, no. 2: 1125-1179. Full Text Link to Item
  - Murphy, AH, and Winkler, RL. "Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results."
- Scholarly Editions
  - DENUIT, M, EECKHOUDT, L, TSETLIN, I, and WINKLER, RL. Multivariate concave and convex stochastic dominance. July 1, 2010.
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