Robert L. Winkler | Scholars@Duke

Robert L. Winkler
James B. Duke Distinguished Professor of Business Administration

Robert L. Winkler is James B. Duke Professor in the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University and also holds an appointment in the Department of Statistical Science at Duke. He is a member of the decision sciences area at Fuqua, and he served as Senior Associate Dean for Faculty and Research from 1991 through 1997. Professor Winkler received his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. Prior to joining the Duke faculty in 1984, he was Distinguished Professor of Quantitative Business Analysis at Indiana University, and he has held visiting positions at the University of Washington, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria), Stanford University, and several times at INSEAD (Fontainebleau, France and Singapore).

Professor Winkler’s primary research areas include decision analysis, risk analysis, statistics, and forecasting. He has published more than 200 articles and several books, and has received support from the National Science Foundation and other sources. He was awarded the Frank P. Ramsey Medal for significant contributions to decision analysis and he has also been a recipient of the NCNB Faculty Award in the Fuqua School of Business. His research focuses on probability forecasting, the combination of forecasts, decision modeling, and Bayesian statistical models for inference and decision. He has held a number of editorial positions and has been an officer in several professional organizations.

Professor Winkler has taught courses in statistics and decision analysis in Fuqua’s MBA and EMBA programs. He taught the statistical models course in Fuqua’s Global Executive MBA Program from the program’s inception in 1996 until 2010, and he was the recipient of the Distinguished Teaching Award from the first GEMBA class. He also teaches a Ph.D. course in Bayesian inference and decision.

Current Appointments & Affiliations

James B. Duke Distinguished Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 1985
Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 1984
Professor of Statistical Science, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2007

Contact Information

Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708-0120
Fuqua Sch of Bus, Durham, NC 27708
rwinkler@duke.edu (919) 660-7729
Fuqua Faculty Profile
Professional Page

Background
Education, Training, & Certifications
- Ph.D., University of Chicago 1966
- B.S., University of Illinois 1963
Duke Appointment History
- Professor, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2009 - 2013
- Professor in the Institute of Statistics and Decision Sciences, Statistical Science, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1988 - 2008
- Research Professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University 1989 - 1997
Recognition
Awards & Honors
- Fellows. Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences. 2006
- ASA Fellows. American Statistical Association. 1983
Research
Selected Grants
- Evaluation of Probability Forecasts awarded by National Science Foundation 1999 - 2002
- (96-0158) Minority Business Consulting Program 1996 - 2001
- (95-0036) Collaborative Research on Dependence Assessment for Risk and Decision Analysis awarded by National Science Foundation 1995 - 1997
- (96-0432) Collaborative Research on Dependence Assessment for Risk and Decision Analysis awarded by National Science Foundation 1995 - 1997
- (94-0084) Collaborative Research on Dependence Assessment for Decision and Risk Analysis awarded by National Science Foundation 1994 - 1995
- (93-0501) Collaborative Research on Flexible Modeling and Analysis for Information Aggregation awarded by National Science Foundation 1991 - 1994
- (92-0963) Collaborative Research on Flexible Modeling and Analysis for Information Aggregation awarded by National Science Foundation 1991 - 1993
- (91-0052) Collaborative Research in Decision, Risk, and Management Science: Flexible Information Aggregation awarded by National Science Foundation 1991 - 1992
- (92-0055) Collaborative Research: Foundations of Risk and Decision Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigations awarded by National Science Foundation 1990 - 1992
- (90-0353) Foundation of Risk and Decision Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigators awarded by National Science Foundation 1990 - 1992
- (90-0035) Foundation Risk Analysis: Theoretical and Empirical Investigation awarded by National Science Foundation 1988 - 1990
- (87-0317) Combining Dependent Information awarded by National Science Foundation 1987 - 1990
- (88-0539) Combining Dependent Information: Models and Issues awarded by National Science Foundation 1986 - 1989
Publications & Artistic Works
Selected Publications
- Books
  - Winkler, Robert L. An Introduction to Bayesian Inference and Decision. Probabilistic Pub, 2003.
  - Winkler, R. L., R. L. Maridakis, and M. Deplas. PSI: Programmes de Statistique Interactif. Les Editions d’Organisation, 1988.
  - Winkler, R. L., and S. Maridakis. ISP: Interactive Statistical Programs. St Paul, MN: West, 1986.
  - Winkler, R. L. Statistical Methods. Edited by D. L. Harnett, 1975.
  - Hays, William L., and Robert L. Winkler. Statistics: probability, inference, and decision. Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1970.
  - Winkler, R. L., S. Makridakis, A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, and E. Parzen. The Forecasting Accuracy of Major Time Series Method. Chichester, UK: Wiley, n.d.
- Academic Articles
  - Lichtendahl, K. C., and R. L. Winkler. “Why do some combinations perform better than others?” International Journal of Forecasting 36, no. 1 (January 1, 2020): 142–49. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.027.
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  - Winkler, R. L., Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. C. Lichtendahl, and V. R. R. Jose. “Probability forecasts and their combination: A research perspective.” Decision Analysis 16, no. 4 (January 1, 2019): 239–60. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2019.0391.
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  - Yao, Yuling, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson, and Andrew Gelman. “Using Stacking to Average Bayesian Predictive Distributions (with Discussion).” Bayesian Analysis 13, no. 3 (September 2018): 917–1007. https://doi.org/10.1214/17-ba1091.
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  - Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance.” Journal of Risk and Insurance 85, no. 2 (June 1, 2018): 431–45. https://doi.org/10.1111/jori.12222.
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  - McCardle, K. F., I. Tsetlin, and R. L. Winkler. “When to abandon a research project and search for a new one.” Operations Research 66, no. 3 (May 1, 2018): 799–813. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1701.
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  - Müller, A., M. Scarsini, I. Tsetlin, and R. L. Winkler. “Between first- and second-order stochastic dominance.” Management Science 63, no. 9 (September 1, 2017): 2933–47. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2486.
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  - Grushka-Cockayne, Y., K. C. Lichtendahl, V. R. R. Jose, and R. L. Winkler. “Quantile evaluation, sensitivity to bracketing, and sharing business payoffs.” Operations Research 65, no. 3 (May 1, 2017): 712–28. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2017.1588.
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  - Gaba, A., I. Tsetlin, and R. L. Winkler. “Combining interval forecasts.” Decision Analysis 14, no. 1 (March 1, 2017): 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2016.0340.
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  - Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Probabilistic tornado forecasts: some experimental results.,” January 1, 2017.
  - Winkler, Robert L. “The importance of communicating uncertainties in forecasts: overestimating the risks from winter storm Juno.” Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35, no. 3 (March 2015): 349–53. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12398.
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  - Tsetlin, I., R. L. Winkler, R. J. Huang, and L. Y. Tzeng. “Generalized almost stochastic dominance.” Operations Research 63, no. 2 (January 1, 2015): 363–77. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2014.1340.
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  - Winkler, Robert L. “Equal versus differential weighting in combining forecasts.” Risk Analysis : An Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 35, no. 1 (January 2015): 16–18. https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12302.
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  - Lichtendahl, K. C., Y. Grushka-Cockayne, and R. L. Winkler. “Is it better to average probabilities or quantiles?” Management Science 59, no. 7 (July 1, 2013): 1594–1611. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1120.1667.
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  - Johnstone, D. J. “Log-optimal economic evaluation of probability forecasts.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series a (Statistics in Society) 175, no. 3 (July 2012): 661–89. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2011.01011.x.
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  - Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Multiattribute one-switch utility.” Management Science 58, no. 3 (March 1, 2012): 602–5. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1100.1299.
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  - Belloni, Alexandre, and Robert L. Winkler. “On multivariate quantiles under partial orders.” The Annals of Statistics 39, no. 2 (April 2011): 1125–79. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-aos863.
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  - Johnstone, D. J., V. R. R. Jose, and R. L. Winkler. “Tailored scoring rules for probabilities.” Decision Analysis 8, no. 4 (January 1, 2011): 256–68. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1110.0216.
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  - Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Multiattribute utility satisfying a preference for combining good with bad.” Management Science 55, no. 12 (December 1, 2009): 1942–52. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1090.1082.
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  - Jose, V. R. R., and R. L. Winkler. “Evaluating quantile assessments.” Operations Research 57, no. 5 (September 1, 2009): 1287–97. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1080.0665.
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  - Jose, V. R. R., R. F. Nau, and R. L. Winkler. “Sensitivity to distance and baseline distributions in forecast evaluation.” Management Science 55, no. 4 (April 1, 2009): 582–90. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0955.
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  - Jose, V. R. R., R. F. Nau, and R. L. Winkler. “Scoring rules, generalized entropy, and utility maximization.” Operations Research 56, no. 5 (September 1, 2008): 1146–57. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1070.0498.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and V. R. R. Jose. “Comments on: Assessing probabilistic forecasts of multivariate quantities, with an application to ensemble predictions of surface winds.” Test 17, no. 2 (August 1, 2008): 251–55. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11749-008-0121-y.
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  - Jose, V. R. R., and R. L. Winkler. “Simple robust averages of forecasts: Some empirical results.” International Journal of Forecasting 24, no. 1 (January 1, 2008): 163–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.06.001.
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  - Nau, R., V. R. Jose, and R. Winkler. “Scoring rules, entropy, and imprecise probabilities.” Isipta 2007 Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, December 1, 2007, 307–15.
  - Lichtendahl, K. C., and R. L. Winkler. “Probability elicitation, scoring rules, and competition among forecasters.” Management Science 53, no. 11 (November 1, 2007): 1745–55. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1070.0729.
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  - Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Decision making with multiattribute performance targets: The impact of changes in performance and target distributions.” Operations Research 55, no. 2 (March 1, 2007): 226–33. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1060.0343.
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  - Tsetlin, Ilia, and Robert L. Winkler. “On Equivalent Target-Oriented Formulations for Multiattribute Utility.” Decision Analysis 3, no. 2 (June 2006): 94–99. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1060.0068.
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  - Smith, J. E., and R. L. Winkler. “The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis.” Management Science 52, no. 3 (March 1, 2006): 311–22. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0451.
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  - Tsetlin, I., and R. L. Winkler. “Risky choices and correlated background risk.” Management Science 51, no. 9 (September 1, 2005): 1336–45. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0414.
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  - Winkler, Robert L., and James E. Smith. “On uncertainty in medical testing.” Medical Decision Making : An International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making 24, no. 6 (November 2004): 654–58. https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989x04271045.
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  - Tsetlin, I., A. Gaba, and R. L. Winkler. “Strategic choice of variability in multiround contests and contests with handicaps.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 29, no. 2 (September 1, 2004): 143–58. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:RISK.0000038941.44379.82.
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  - Winkler, Robert L., and Robert T. Clemen. “Multiple Experts vs. Multiple Methods: Combining Correlation Assessments.” Decision Analysis 1, no. 3 (September 2004): 167–76. https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.1030.0008.
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  - Gaba, A., I. Tsetlin, and R. L. Winkler. “Modifying variability and correlations in winner-take-all contests.” Operations Research 52, no. 3 (May 1, 2004). https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.1030.0098.
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  - Browne, R. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Winkler, R. L., Smith, J. E., and Fryback, D. G. (2002), "The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid," the american statistician, 56, 1-4: Comments by browne [1] (multiple letters).” American Statistician 56, no. 3 (August 1, 2002): 252–53. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313002209.
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  - Winkler, R. L., J. E. Smith, and D. G. Fryback. “The role of informative priors in zero-numerator problems: Being conservative versus being candid.” American Statistician 56, no. 1 (January 1, 2002): 1–4. https://doi.org/10.1198/000313002753631295.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Why Bayesian analysis hasn't caught on in healthcare decision making.” International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care 17, no. 1 (January 2001): 56–66. https://doi.org/10.1017/s026646230110406x.
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  - Smith, J. E., R. L. Winkler, and D. G. Fryback. “The first positive: computing positive predictive value at the extremes.” Annals of Internal Medicine 132, no. 10 (May 2000): 804–9. https://doi.org/10.7326/0003-4819-132-10-200005160-00008.
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  - Clemen, R. T., G. W. Fischer, and R. L. Winkler. “Assessing dependence: some experimental results.” Management Science 46, no. 8 (January 1, 2000): 1100–1115. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.46.8.1100.12023.
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  - Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Combining probability distributions from experts in risk analysis.” Risk Analysis 19, no. 2 (April 1, 1999): 187–203. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006917509560.
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  - Smith, J. E., and R. L. Winkler. “Casey's problem: Interpreting and evaluating a new test.” Interfaces 29, no. 3 (January 1, 1999): 63–76. https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.29.3.63.
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  - Boiney, Lindsley G., Robert L. Winkler, Rakesh K. Sarin, and David B. Matchar. “Combining Patient Utility with Health Status Assessment to Improve Medical Decision Making.” Journal of Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis 5, no. 4 (December 1996): 248–58. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1360(199612)5:4<248::aid-mcda107>3.3.co;2-h.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment.” Reliability Engineering and System Safety 54, no. 2–3 (November 1, 1996): 127–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(96)00070-1.
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  - Abramson, B., J. Brown, W. Edwards, A. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler. “Hailfinder: A Bayesian system for forecasting severe weather.” International Journal of Forecasting 12, no. 1 (January 1, 1996): 57–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(95)00664-8.
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  - Boiney, L. G., R. L. Winkler, R. K. Sarin, and D. B. Matchar. “Combining patient utility with health status assessment to improve medical decision making.” Journal of Multi Criteria Decision Analysis 5, no. 4 (January 1, 1996): 248–58. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1360(199612)5:4<248::AID-MCDA107>3.0.CO;2-Q.
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  - Winkler, R. L., J. Muñoz, J. L. Cervera, J. M. Bernardo, G. Blattenberger, J. B. Kadane, D. V. Lindley, A. H. Murphy, R. M. Oliver, and D. Ríos-Insua. “Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities.” Test 5, no. 1 (January 1, 1996): 1–60. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02562681.
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  - Dawid, A. P., M. H. DeGroot, J. Mortera, R. Cooke, S. French, C. Genest, M. J. Schervish, D. V. Lindley, K. J. McConway, and R. L. Winkler. “Coherent combination of experts' opinions.” Test 4, no. 2 (December 1, 1995): 263–313. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02562628.
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  - Clemen, R. T., A. H. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler. “Screening probability forecasts: contrasts between choosing and combining.” International Journal of Forecasting 11, no. 1 (January 1, 1995): 133–45. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(94)02007-C.
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  - Gaba, A., and R. L. Winkler. “The impact of testing errors on value of information: A quality-control example.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 10, no. 1 (January 1, 1995): 5–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01211525.
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  - Winkler, R. L., T. S. Wallsten, R. G. Whitfield, H. M. Richmond, S. R. Hayes, and A. S. Rosenbaum. “Assessment of the risk of chronic lung injury attributable to long-term ozone exposure.” Operations Research 43, no. 1 (January 1, 1995): 19–28. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.43.1.19.
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  - Winkler, Robert L. “Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules.” Management Science 40, no. 11 (November 1994): 1395–1405. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.40.11.1395.
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  - WINKLER, R. L. “VALUED-FOCUSED THINKING.” Sloan Management Review 36, no. 1 (September 1, 1994): 5–5.
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  - Kadane, J. B., J. Girón, D. Peña, P. Fishburn, S. French, D. V. Lindley, G. Parmigiani, and R. L. Winkler. “Several Bayesians: A review.” Test 2, no. 1–2 (December 1, 1993): 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02562668.
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  - Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Aggregating point estimates. A flexible modeling approach.” Management Science 39, no. 4 (April 1, 1993): 501–16.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Several Bayesians: Multiple-Person Problems.” Test 2, no. 1–2 (1993): 25–29.
  - Winkler, R. L., and R. M. Poses. “Evaluating and combining physicians' probabilities of survival in an intensive care unit.” Management Science 39, no. 12 (January 1, 1993): 1526–43. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.39.12.1526.
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  - Sarin, R. K., and R. L. Winkler. “Ambiguity and decision modeling: A preference-based approach.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 5, no. 4 (October 1, 1992): 389–407. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00122577.
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  - Gaba, Anil, and Robert L. Winkler. “Implications of Errors in Survey Data: A Bayesian Model.” Management Science 38, no. 7 (July 1992): 913–25. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.7.913.
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  - McCardle, Kevin F., and Robert L. Winkler. “Repeated Gambles, Learning, and Risk Aversion.” Management Science 38, no. 6 (June 1992): 807–18. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.38.6.807.
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  - Winkler, Robert L., and Robert T. Clemen. “Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts.” Operations Research 40, no. 3 (June 1992): 609–14. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.40.3.609.
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  - Miller, C. M., R. T. Clemen, and R. L. Winkler. “The effect of nonstationarity on combined forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting 7, no. 4 (January 1, 1992): 515–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90035-8.
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  - Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Diagnostic verification of probability forecasts.” International Journal of Forecasting 7, no. 4 (January 1, 1992): 435–55. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90028-8.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “On seeking a best performance measure or a best forecasting method.” International Journal of Forecasting 8, no. 1 (January 1, 1992): 104–7. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90014-Z.
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  - WEST, M., and R. L. WINKLER. “DATA-BASE ERROR TRAPPING AND PREDICTION.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 86, no. 416 (December 1991): 987–96. https://doi.org/10.2307/2290515.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Ambiguity, probability, preference, and decision analysis.” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 4, no. 3 (July 1, 1991): 285–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00114158.
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  - Poses, R. M., C. Bekes, R. L. Winkler, W. E. Scott, and F. J. Copare. “Are two (inexperienced) heads better than one (experienced) head? Averaging house officers' prognostic judgments for critically ill patients.” Archives of Internal Medicine 150, no. 9 (September 1990): 1874–78. https://doi.org/10.1001/archinte.150.9.1874.
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  - Clemen, Robert T., and Robert L. Winkler. “Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters.” Management Science 36, no. 7 (July 1990): 767–79. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.7.767.
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  - Winkler, Robert L. “Decision Modeling and Rational Choice: AHP and Utility Theory.” Management Science 36, no. 3 (March 1990): 247–48. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.3.247.
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  - Edwards, W., D. A. Schum, and R. L. Winkler. “Murder and (of?) the likelihood principle: A Trialogue.” Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 3, no. 2 (January 1, 1990): 75–89. https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.3960030202.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Representing and Communicating Uncertainty.” Statistical Science 5, no. 1 (1990): 26–30.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Comment: Representing and communicating uncertainty.” Statistical Science 5, no. 1 (January 1, 1990): 26–30. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177012249.
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  - Haves, S. R., A. S. Rosenbaum, T. S. Wallsten, R. G. Whitfield, R. L. Winkler, and H. Richmond. “A health risk assessment for use in setting the U.S. primary ozone standard.” Studies in Environmental Science 35, no. C (December 1, 1989): 851–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0166-1116(08)70648-4.
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  - MAKRIDAKIS, S., and R. L. WINKLER. “SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS OF POST-SAMPLE FORECASTING ERRORS.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C Applied Statistics 38, no. 2 (January 1, 1989): 331–42.
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  - McCardle, K. F., and R. L. Winkler. “All Roads Lead to Risk Preference: A Turnpike Theorem for Conditionally Independent Returns.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 24, no. 1 (January 1, 1989): 13–28. https://doi.org/10.2307/2330745.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues.” International Journal of Forecasting 5, no. 4 (January 1, 1989): 605–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(89)90018-6.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Uncertainty about processes that shift over time: Modeling and analysis.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 7, no. 4 (January 1, 1989): 419–22. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1989.10509752.
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  - Kadane, J. B., and R. L. Winkler. “Separating probability elicitation from utilities.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 83, no. 402 (January 1, 1988): 357–63. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1988.10478605.
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  - Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “A general framework for forecast verification.” Monthly Weather Review 115, no. 7 (January 1, 1987): 1330–38. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1330:AGFFFV>2.0.CO;2.
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  - Winkler, Robert L. “Expert Resolution.” Management Science 32, no. 3 (March 1986): 298–303. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.32.3.298.
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  - Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Combining economic forecasts.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4, no. 1 (January 1, 1986): 39–46. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1986.10509492.
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  - Clemen, Robert T., and Robert L. Winkler. “Combining Economic Forecasts.” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 4, no. 1 (January 1986): 39–39. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391385.
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  - Conroy, R. M., and R. L. Winkler. “Market structure. The specialist as dealer and broker.” Journal of Banking and Finance 10, no. 1 (January 1, 1986): 21–36. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(86)90018-X.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Comment.” Statistical Science 1, no. 1 (January 1, 1986): 138–40. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177013828.
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  - Murphy, Allan H., Richard W. Katz, Robert L. Winkler, and Wu-Ron Hsu. “Repetitive Decision Making and the Value of Forecasts in the Cost‐Loss Ratio Situation: A Dynamic Model.” Monthly Weather Review 113, no. 5 (May 1985): 801–13. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<0801:rdmatv>2.0.co;2.
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  - Winkler, Robert L. “Dynamic Generalized Linear Models and Bayesian Forecasting: Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 80, no. 389 (March 1985): 95–95. https://doi.org/10.2307/2288049.
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  - Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “LIMITS FOR THE PRECISION AND VALUE OF INFORMATION FROM DEPENDENT SOURCES.” Operations Research 33, no. 2 (January 1, 1985): 427–42. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.33.2.427.
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  - Cohen, M. D., G. Huber, R. L. Keeney, A. H. Levis, L. L. Lopes, A. P. Sage, S. Sen, et al. “Research Needs and the Phenomena of Decisionmaking and Operations.” Ieee Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-15, no. 6 (January 1, 1985): 764–75. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.1985.6313460.
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  - Keeney, R. L., and R. L. Winkler. “EVALUATING DECISION STRATEGIES FOR EQUITY OF PUBLIC RISKS.” Operations Research 33, no. 5 (January 1, 1985): 955–70. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.33.5.955.
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  - Murphy, A. H., A. H. Wu-Ron Hsu, R. L. Winkler, and D. S. Wilks. “The use of probabilities in subjective quantitative precipitation forecasts: some experimental results.” Monthly Weather Review 113, no. 12 (January 1, 1985): 2075–89. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1985)113<2075:TUOPIS>2.0.CO;2.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Comment: Bayesian model building and forecasting.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 80, no. 389 (January 1, 1985): 95. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1985.10477138.
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  - Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Probability Forecasting in Meterology.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 79, no. 387 (September 1984): 489–489. https://doi.org/10.2307/2288395.
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  - Keeney, R. L., R. K. Sarin, and R. L. Winkler. “Analysis of alternative national ambient carbon monoxide standards.” Management Science 30, no. 4 (January 1, 1984): 518–28. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.30.4.518.
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  - Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Probability forecasting in meteorology.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 79, no. 387 (January 1, 1984): 489–500. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1984.10478075.
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  - Keeney, R. L., R. K. Sarin, and R. L. Winkler. “RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR THE STUDY OF ALTERNATIVE NATIONAL AMBIENT CARBON MONOXIDE STANDARDS.” Proceedings, Annual Meeting Air Pollution Control Association 1 (December 1, 1983).
  - Goss, D. A., and R. L. Winkler. “Progression of myopia in youth: age of cessation.” American Journal of Optometry and Physiological Optics 60, no. 8 (August 1983): 651–58. https://doi.org/10.1097/00006324-198308000-00002.
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  - Goss, D. A., and R. L. Winkler. “Progression of myopia in youth: Age of cessation.” Optometry and Vision Science 60, no. 8 (January 1, 1983): 651–58.
  - Makridakis, S., and R. L. Winkler. “AVERAGES OF FORECASTS: SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS.” Management Science 29, no. 7 (January 1, 1983): 987–96.
  - Winkler, R. L. “The Effects of Combining Forecasts and the Improvement of the Overall Forecasting Process.” Journal of Forecasting 2 (1983): 293–94.
  - Winkler, R. L., A. H. Murphy, and R. W. Katz. “The value of climate information: A decision‐analytic approach.” Journal of Climatology 3, no. 2 (January 1, 1983): 187–97. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370030208.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and S. Makridakis. “The Combination of Forecasts.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series a (General) 146, no. 2 (1983): 150–57.
  - Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Subjective Probabilistic Tornado Forecasts: Some Experimental Results.” Monthly Weather Review 110, no. 9 (September 1982): 1288–97. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110<1288:sptfse>2.0.co;2.
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  - Harpaz, G., W. Lee, and R. L. Winkler. “LEARNING, EXPERIMENTATION, AND THE OPTIMAL OUTPUT DECISIONS OF A COMPETITIVE FIRM.” Management Science 28, no. 6 (January 1, 1982): 589–603. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.28.6.589.
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  - Katz, R. W., A. H. Murphy, and R. L. Winkler. “Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: a dynamic decision-making approach.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 21, no. 4 (January 1, 1982): 518–31. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<0518:ATVOFF>2.0.CO;2.
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  - Makridakis, S., A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Lewandowski, J. Newton, E. Parzen, and R. Winkler. “The accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition.” Journal of Forecasting 1, no. 2 (January 1, 1982): 111–53. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.3980010202.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “State of the Art: RESEARCH DIRECTIONS IN DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY.” Decision Sciences 13, no. 4 (January 1, 1982): 517–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb01176.x.
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  - Winkler, Robert L. “Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources.” Management Science 27, no. 4 (April 1981): 479–88. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.27.4.479.
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  - Conroy, R. M., and R. L. Winkler. “Informational Differences Between Limit and Market Orders for a Market Maker.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 16, no. 5 (January 1, 1981): 703–24. https://doi.org/10.2307/2331056.
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  - Eliashberg, J., and R. L. Winkler. “RISK SHARING AND GROUP DECISION MAKING.” Management Science 27, no. 11 (January 1, 1981): 1221–35. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.27.11.1221.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and R. K. Sarin. “Risk assessment: consulting the experts.” Environmental Professional 3, no. 3–4 (January 1, 1981): 265–76.
  - Murphy, A. H., S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler. “Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).,” December 1, 1980.
  - Sarin, Rakesh K., and Robert L. Winkler. “Performance-Based Incentive Plans.” Management Science 26, no. 11 (November 1980): 1131–44. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.26.11.1131.
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  - Winkler, Robert L., and Daniel G. Brooks. “Competitive Bidding with Dependent Value Estimates.” Operations Research 28, no. 3-part-i (June 1980): 603–13. https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.28.3.603.
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  - Kadane, J. B., J. M. Dickey, R. L. Winkler, W. S. Smith, and S. C. Peters. “Interactive elicitation of opinion for a normal linear model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, no. 372 (January 1, 1980): 845–54. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1980.10477562.
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  - Murphy, A. H., S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler. “Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).,” January 1, 1980.
  - Murphy, A. H., S. Lichtenstein, B. Fischhoff, and R. L. Winkler. “Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts ( Eugene, Oregon).” Bulletin, American Meteorological Society 61, no. 7 (January 1, 1980).
  - Winkler, R. L., J. B. Kadane, R. L. Dickey, W. S. Smith, and S. C. Peters. “Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 75, no. 4 (1980): 845–54.
  - Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Problabilistic temperature forecasts: the case for an operational program.” Bulletin American Meteorological Society 60, no. 1 (January 1, 1979): 12–19.
  - Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “The use of probabilities in forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures.” Meteorological Magazine 108, no. 1288 (January 1, 1979): 317–29.
  - Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Subjective quantification of uncertainty in tornado forecasts: Some experimental results.,” January 1, 1979.
  - Winkler, R. L., and L. A. Franklin. “Warner’s randomized response model: A Bayesian approach.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 74, no. 365 (January 1, 1979): 207–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10481639.
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  - Eliashberg, J., and R. L. Winkler. “ROLE OF ATTITUDE TOWARD RISK IN STRICTLY COMPETITIVE DECISION-MAKING SITUATIONS.” 24, no. 12 (January 1, 1978): 1231–41. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.24.12.1231.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Statisticians Can Matter: Comment.” The American Statistician 32, no. 2 (1978): 54–56.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Comment.” American Statistician 32, no. 2 (January 1, 1978): 54–56. https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.1978.10479250.
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  - Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Experimental point and area precipitation probability forecasts for a forecast area with significant local effects.” Atmosphere 15, no. 2 (June 1, 1977): 61–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/00046973.1977.9648431.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Reliability of Subjective Probability Forecasts of Precipitation and Temperature.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 26, no. 1 (1977): 41–47.
  - Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Can Weather Forecasters Formulate Reliable Probability Forecasts for a Forecast Area with Significant Local Effects.” National Weather Digest 2, no. 2 (1977): 2–9.
  - Barry, C. B., and R. L. Winkler. “Nohstationarity and portfolio choice.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11, no. 2 (January 1, 1976): 217–35. https://doi.org/10.2307/2979051.
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  - Jaffe, J. F., and R. L. Winkler. “OPTIMAL SPECULATION AGAINST AN EFFICIENT MARKET.” The Journal of Finance 31, no. 1 (January 1, 1976): 49–61. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1976.tb03195.x.
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  - Matheson, J. E., and R. L. Winkler. “SCORING RULES FOR CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS.” Management Science 22, no. 10 (January 1, 1976): 1087–96. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.10.1087.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and C. B. Barry. “Nonstationarity and Portfolio Choice.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 11, no. 2 (1976): 217–35.
  - Winkler, Robert L., and Allan H. Murphy. “Point and Area Precipitation Probability Forecasts: Some Experimental Results.” Monthly Weather Review 104, no. 1 (January 1976): 86–95. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1976)104<0086:paappf>2.0.co;2.
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  - Marschak, J., M. H. Degroot, K. Borch, H. Chernoff, M. De Groot, R. Dorfman, W. Edwards, et al. “Personal probabilities of probabilities.” Theory and Decision 6, no. 2 (May 1, 1975): 121–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00169102.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Cognitive Processes and the Assessment of Subjective Probability Distributions: Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 70, no. 2 (1975): 290–91.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 70, no. 350 (January 1, 1975): 290–91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1975.10479859.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and C. B. Barry. “A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND REVISION.” The Journal of Finance 30, no. 1 (January 1, 1975): 179–92. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1975.tb03169.x.
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  - Britney, R. R., and R. L. Winkler. “Bayesian point estimation and prediction.” Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 26, no. 1 (December 1, 1974): 15–34. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02479801.
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  - Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Probability Forecasts: a Survey of National Weather Service Forecasters.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 55, no. 12 (December 1974): 1449–52. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1974)055<1449:pfason>2.0.co;2.
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  - Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Credible Interval Temperature Forecasting: Some Experimental Results.” Monthly Weather Review 102, no. 11 (November 1974): 784–94. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1974)102<0784:citfse>2.0.co;2.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Bayesian Models for Forecasting Future Security Prices.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 8 (1973): 387–405.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Bayesianism: Its Unifying Role for Both the Foundations and the Applications of Statistics: Comments.” Bulleting of the International Statistical Institute 45, no. 4 (1973): 375–375.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Information Aggregation in Probabilistic Prediction.” Ieee Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics SMC-3, no. 2 (January 1, 1973): 154–60. https://doi.org/10.1109/TSMC.1973.5408497.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Subjective Probability Forecasting of Temperature: Some Experimental Results.” Bulletin of the International Statistical Institute 45, no. 2 (1973): 247–68.
  - Winkler, R. L., and A. H. Murphy. “Experiments in the laboratory and the real world.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 10, no. 2 (January 1, 1973): 252–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90017-2.
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  - Winkler, Robert L., Gary M. Roodman, and Robert R. Britney. “The Determination of Partial Moments.” Management Science 19, no. 3 (November 1972): 290–96. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.19.3.290.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “On Simpson's Paradox and the Sure-Thing Principle, and Some Probability Paradoxes in Choice from Among Random Alternatives: Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 2 (1972): 376–78.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Comment.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 338 (January 1, 1972): 376–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1972.10482391.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “A decision-theoretic approach to interval estimation.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67, no. 337 (January 1, 1972): 187–91. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1972.10481224.
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  - Winkler, R. L., and L. L. Cummings. “On the choice of a consensus distribution in Bayesian analysis.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 7, no. 1 (January 1, 1972): 63–76. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(72)90007-4.
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  - Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: Some Current Problems.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52, no. 4 (April 1971): 239–48. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1971)052<0239:fapfsc>2.0.co;2.
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  - Murphy, Allan H., and Robert L. Winkler. “Forecasters and Probability Forecasts: the Responses to a Questionnaire.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 52, no. 3 (March 1971): 158–66. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1971)052<0158:fapftr>2.0.co;2.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 66, no. 4 (1971): 675–85.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 66, no. 336 (January 1, 1971): 675–85. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329.
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  - Murphy, A. H., and R. L. Winkler. “Scoring rules in probability assessment and evaluation.” Acta Psychologica 34, no. C (January 1, 1970): 273–86. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(70)90023-5.
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  - WINKLER RL, Allan H., and Allan H. MURPHY AH. “NONLINEAR UTILITY AND THE PROBABILITY SCORE.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 9, no. 1 (January 1, 1970): 143–48.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Tables of the nth Order Partial Moments about the Origin for the Standard Normal Distribution, n=1(1)6.” Mathematics of Computation 24 (1970): 995–995.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Intuitive bayesian point estimation.” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 5, no. 5 (January 1, 1970): 417–29. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(70)90032-2.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 64, no. 3 (1969): 1073–78.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 64, no. 327 (January 1, 1969): 1073–78. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1969.10501037.
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  - Winkler, Robert L. “The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions.” Management Science 15, no. 2 (October 1968). https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.15.2.b61.
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  - Winkler, Robert L., and Allan H. Murphy. ““Good” Probability Assessors.” Journal of Applied Meteorology 7, no. 5 (October 1968): 751–58. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1968)007<0751:pa>2.0.co;2.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 3 (1967): 776–800.
  - Winkler, R. L. “The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 4 (1967): 1105–20.
  - Winkler, R. L. “The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 319 (January 1, 1967): 776–800. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1967.10500894.
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  - Winkler, R. L. “The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62, no. 320 (January 1, 1967): 1105–20. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1967.10500920.
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- Book Sections
  - Clemen, R. T., and R. L. Winkler. “Aggregating probability distributions.” In Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications, 154–76, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511611308.010.
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- Scholarly Editions
  - Denuit, Michel, Louis Eeckhoudt, Ilia Tsetlin, and Robert L. Winkler. “Multivariate Concave and Convex Stochastic Dominance,” April 23, 2010.
- Conference Papers
  - Nau, R. F., V. R. R. Jose, and R. L. Winkler. “Duality between maximization of expected utility and minimization of relative entropy when probabilities are imprecise.” In Isipta 2009 Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications, 337–46, 2009.
  - Winkler, R. L. “Evaluation of probabilities: A level playing field?” In Decision Science and Technology: Reflections on the Contributions of Ward Edwards, edited by J. Shanteau, B. A. Mellers, and D. A. Schum, 155–70. KLUWER ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS, 1999.
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Teaching & Mentoring
Recent Courses
- BA 910: Bayesian Inference and Decision 2019
- STA 502: Bayesian Inference and Decision 2019

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