A Practical Approach to Address Uncertainty in Stakeholder Deliberations.

Published

Journal Article

This article addresses the difficulties of incorporating uncertainty about consequence estimates as part of stakeholder deliberations involving multiple alternatives. Although every prediction of future consequences necessarily involves uncertainty, a large gap exists between common practices for addressing uncertainty in stakeholder deliberations and the procedures of prescriptive decision-aiding models advanced by risk and decision analysts. We review the treatment of uncertainty at four main phases of the deliberative process: with experts asked to describe possible consequences of competing alternatives, with stakeholders who function both as individuals and as members of coalitions, with the stakeholder committee composed of all stakeholders, and with decisionmakers. We develop and recommend a model that uses certainty equivalents as a theoretically robust and practical approach for helping diverse stakeholders to incorporate uncertainties when evaluating multiple-objective alternatives as part of public policy decisions.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Gregory, R; Keeney, RL

Published Date

  • March 2017

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 37 / 3

Start / End Page

  • 487 - 501

PubMed ID

  • 28095592

Pubmed Central ID

  • 28095592

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1539-6924

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0272-4332

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1111/risa.12638

Language

  • eng