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Validation of serum progesterone <35nmol/L as a predictor of miscarriage among women with threatened miscarriage.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Lek, SM; Ku, CW; Allen, JC; Malhotra, R; Tan, NS; Østbye, T; Tan, TC
Published in: BMC Pregnancy Childbirth
March 6, 2017

BACKGROUND: Our recent paper, based on a pilot cohort of 119 women, showed that serum progesterone <35 nmol/L was prognostic of spontaneous miscarriage by 16 weeks in women with threatened miscarriage in early pregnancy. Using a larger cohort of women from the same setting (validation cohort), we aim to assess the validity of serum progesterone <35 nmol/L with the outcome of spontaneous miscarriage by 16 weeks. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, 360 pregnant women presenting with threatened miscarriage between gestation weeks 6-10 at a tertiary hospital emergency unit for women in Singapore were recruited for this study. The main outcome measure measured is spontaneous miscarriage prior to week 16 of gestation. Area under the ROC curve (AUC) and test characteristics (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value) at a serum progesterone cutpoint of <35 nmol/L for predicting high and low risk of spontaneous miscarriage by 16 weeks were compared between the Pilot and Validation cohorts. RESULTS: Test characteristics and AUC values using serum progesterone <35 nmol/L in the validation cohort were not significantly different from those in the Pilot cohort, demonstrating excellent accuracy and reproducibility of the proposed serum progesterone cut-off level. CONCLUSIONS: The cut-off value for serum progesterone (35 nmol/L) demonstrated clinical relevance and allow clinicians to stratify patients into high and low risk groups for spontaneous miscarriage.

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Published In

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth

DOI

EISSN

1471-2393

Publication Date

March 6, 2017

Volume

17

Issue

1

Start / End Page

78

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Young Adult
  • Risk Assessment
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • ROC Curve
  • Prospective Studies
  • Prognosis
  • Progesterone
  • Pregnancy Trimester, First
  • Pregnancy
  • Obstetrics & Reproductive Medicine
 

Citation

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Lek, S. M., Ku, C. W., Allen, J. C., Malhotra, R., Tan, N. S., Østbye, T., & Tan, T. C. (2017). Validation of serum progesterone <35nmol/L as a predictor of miscarriage among women with threatened miscarriage. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth, 17(1), 78. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-017-1261-4
Lek, Sze Min, Chee Wai Ku, John C. Allen, Rahul Malhotra, Nguan Soon Tan, Truls Østbye, and Thiam Chye Tan. “Validation of serum progesterone <35nmol/L as a predictor of miscarriage among women with threatened miscarriage.BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 17, no. 1 (March 6, 2017): 78. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12884-017-1261-4.
Lek SM, Ku CW, Allen JC, Malhotra R, Tan NS, Østbye T, et al. Validation of serum progesterone <35nmol/L as a predictor of miscarriage among women with threatened miscarriage. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 2017 Mar 6;17(1):78.
Lek, Sze Min, et al. “Validation of serum progesterone <35nmol/L as a predictor of miscarriage among women with threatened miscarriage.BMC Pregnancy Childbirth, vol. 17, no. 1, Mar. 2017, p. 78. Pubmed, doi:10.1186/s12884-017-1261-4.
Lek SM, Ku CW, Allen JC, Malhotra R, Tan NS, Østbye T, Tan TC. Validation of serum progesterone <35nmol/L as a predictor of miscarriage among women with threatened miscarriage. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth. 2017 Mar 6;17(1):78.
Journal cover image

Published In

BMC Pregnancy Childbirth

DOI

EISSN

1471-2393

Publication Date

March 6, 2017

Volume

17

Issue

1

Start / End Page

78

Location

England

Related Subject Headings

  • Young Adult
  • Risk Assessment
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • ROC Curve
  • Prospective Studies
  • Prognosis
  • Progesterone
  • Pregnancy Trimester, First
  • Pregnancy
  • Obstetrics & Reproductive Medicine