Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results

Published

Journal Article

This article concerns a study in which personal probability assessments regarding the outcomes of football games were obtained. The results reported here, which include a detailed investigation of the assessments, an evaluation of the assessments in an inferential context and in a decision-theoretic context, and a discussion of the performance of a consensus, show that methods such as scoring rules and bets are useful in leading individuals to make careful probability assessments. Considerable variability existed among subjects, however, with predictions determined by mechanical schemes and by the organized betting market proving superior to those of many of the subjects. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Full Text

Duke Authors

Cited Authors

  • Winkler, RL

Published Date

  • January 1, 1971

Published In

Volume / Issue

  • 66 / 336

Start / End Page

  • 675 - 685

Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)

  • 1537-274X

International Standard Serial Number (ISSN)

  • 0162-1459

Digital Object Identifier (DOI)

  • 10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329

Citation Source

  • Scopus