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A multistage model of hospital bed requirements.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Pendergast, JF; Vogel, WB
Published in: Health Serv Res
August 1988

This article presents a model for projecting future hospital bed requirements, based on clinical judgment and basic probability theory. Clinical judgment is used to define various categories of care, including a category for patients who are inappropriately hospitalized, for a large teaching hospital with a heavy indigent and psychiatric workload. Survey results and discharge abstract data are then used to calculate expected discharges and patient days for each clinical category. These expected discharges and patient days are converted into estimated bed requirements using a simple deterministic equation. Results of this multistage model are compared with the results obtained from exercising the simple deterministic equation alone. Because the multistage model removes patients from the hospital if they are deemed inappropriately placed, this model results in the projection of 5.1 percent fewer hospital beds than the simple deterministic equation alone.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Health Serv Res

ISSN

0017-9124

Publication Date

August 1988

Volume

23

Issue

3

Start / End Page

381 / 399

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Progressive Patient Care
  • Patients
  • Operations Research
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Length of Stay
  • Humans
  • Hospital Planning
  • Hospital Bed Capacity
  • Health Policy & Services
  • Forecasting
 

Citation

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Pendergast, J. F., & Vogel, W. B. (1988). A multistage model of hospital bed requirements. Health Serv Res, 23(3), 381–399.
Pendergast, J. F., and W. B. Vogel. “A multistage model of hospital bed requirements.Health Serv Res 23, no. 3 (August 1988): 381–99.
Pendergast JF, Vogel WB. A multistage model of hospital bed requirements. Health Serv Res. 1988 Aug;23(3):381–99.
Pendergast, J. F., and W. B. Vogel. “A multistage model of hospital bed requirements.Health Serv Res, vol. 23, no. 3, Aug. 1988, pp. 381–99.
Pendergast JF, Vogel WB. A multistage model of hospital bed requirements. Health Serv Res. 1988 Aug;23(3):381–399.
Journal cover image

Published In

Health Serv Res

ISSN

0017-9124

Publication Date

August 1988

Volume

23

Issue

3

Start / End Page

381 / 399

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Progressive Patient Care
  • Patients
  • Operations Research
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Length of Stay
  • Humans
  • Hospital Planning
  • Hospital Bed Capacity
  • Health Policy & Services
  • Forecasting