Polls and Elections Reversal of Fortune: The Political Behavior of White Migrants to the South

What are the political implications of domestic migration to the American South? Using the American National Election Studies, we track the changing dynamic of party identification and presidential voting among white southern in‐migrants and natives. Although it was once thought southern in‐migration from the rest of the country contributed to Republican ascendancy in the region, we find that is no longer true. In the 1970s and 1980s, white migrants to the South were more Republican than natives. Today, white southern in‐migrants are more likely to affiliate with the Democratic Party and vote Democratic, suggesting population change could ultimately shift the partisan balance in the region.

Duke Scholars

Author D. Sunshine Hillygus Political Science