Skip to main content

Development and Validation of a Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated With Chest Radiation: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the Dutch Hodgkin Late Effects and LATER Cohorts.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Moskowitz, CS; Ronckers, CM; Chou, JF; Smith, SA; Friedman, DN; Barnea, D; Kok, JL; de Vries, S; Wolden, SL; Henderson, TO; van der Pal, HJH ...
Published in: J Clin Oncol
September 20, 2021

PURPOSE: Women treated with chest radiation for childhood cancer have one of the highest risks of breast cancer. Models producing personalized breast cancer risk estimates applicable to this population do not exist. We sought to develop and validate a breast cancer risk prediction model for childhood cancer survivors treated with chest radiation incorporating treatment-related factors, family history, and reproductive factors. METHODS: Analyses were based on multinational cohorts of female 5-year survivors of cancer diagnosed younger than age 21 years and treated with chest radiation. Model derivation was based on 1,120 participants in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study diagnosed between 1970 and 1986, with median attained age 42 years (range 20-64) and 242 with breast cancer. Model validation included 1,027 participants from three cohorts, with median age 32 years (range 20-66) and 105 with breast cancer. RESULTS: The model included current age, chest radiation field, whether chest radiation was delivered within 1 year of menarche, anthracycline exposure, age at menopause, and history of a first-degree relative with breast cancer. Ten-year risk estimates ranged from 2% to 23% for 30-year-old women (area under the curve, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.50 to 0.73) and from 5% to 34% for 40-year-old women (area under the curve, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.84). The highest risks were among premenopausal women older than age 40 years treated with mantle field radiation within a year of menarche who had a first-degree relative with breast cancer. It showed good calibration with an expected-to-observed ratio of the number of breast cancers of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.74 to 1.16). CONCLUSION: Breast cancer risk varies among childhood cancer survivors treated with chest radiation. Accurate risk prediction may aid in refining surveillance, counseling, and preventive strategies in this population.

Duke Scholars

Altmetric Attention Stats
Dimensions Citation Stats

Published In

J Clin Oncol

DOI

EISSN

1527-7755

Publication Date

September 20, 2021

Volume

39

Issue

27

Start / End Page

3012 / 3021

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Young Adult
  • Risk Factors
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
  • Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced
  • Middle Aged
  • Humans
  • Female
  • Cancer Survivors
  • Breast Neoplasms
  • Adult
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Moskowitz, C. S., Ronckers, C. M., Chou, J. F., Smith, S. A., Friedman, D. N., Barnea, D., … Oeffinger, K. C. (2021). Development and Validation of a Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated With Chest Radiation: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the Dutch Hodgkin Late Effects and LATER Cohorts. J Clin Oncol, 39(27), 3012–3021. https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.20.02244
Moskowitz, Chaya S., Cécile M. Ronckers, Joanne F. Chou, Susan A. Smith, Danielle Novetsky Friedman, Dana Barnea, Judith L. Kok, et al. “Development and Validation of a Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated With Chest Radiation: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the Dutch Hodgkin Late Effects and LATER Cohorts.J Clin Oncol 39, no. 27 (September 20, 2021): 3012–21. https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.20.02244.
Moskowitz CS, Ronckers CM, Chou JF, Smith SA, Friedman DN, Barnea D, Kok JL, de Vries S, Wolden SL, Henderson TO, van der Pal HJH, Kremer LCM, Neglia JP, Turcotte LM, Howell RM, Arnold MA, Schaapveld M, Aleman B, Janus C, Versluys B, Leisenring W, Sklar CA, Begg CB, Pike MC, Armstrong GT, Robison LL, van Leeuwen FE, Oeffinger KC. Development and Validation of a Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated With Chest Radiation: A Report From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and the Dutch Hodgkin Late Effects and LATER Cohorts. J Clin Oncol. 2021 Sep 20;39(27):3012–3021.

Published In

J Clin Oncol

DOI

EISSN

1527-7755

Publication Date

September 20, 2021

Volume

39

Issue

27

Start / End Page

3012 / 3021

Location

United States

Related Subject Headings

  • Young Adult
  • Risk Factors
  • Oncology & Carcinogenesis
  • Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced
  • Middle Aged
  • Humans
  • Female
  • Cancer Survivors
  • Breast Neoplasms
  • Adult