Optimal timing of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator implantation after myocardial infarction: a decision analysis.
Journal Article (Journal Article)
BACKGROUND: The optimal timing of implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) placement for the primary prevention of sudden cardiac death after myocardial infarction (MI) remains unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: We developed a Markov model to investigate the optimal timing of ICD implantation after MI (no ICD, ICD at 60 days, 6 months, and 1 year) in patients who meet current guidelines. Estimates of arrhythmic death (baseline risk 6%, range 1-20% per year), nonarrhythmic death, and ICD efficacy were based upon MADIT-II and other contemporary post-MI clinical trials. We used both deterministic and stochastic modeling processes in our analysis. After 10 years follow-up, the baseline probability of survival was higher in those treated with ICD implantation versus not (42% vs 30%, P < 0.001). Survival was highest with ICD implantation at 60 days versus 6 months versus 1 year: 42.4%, 42.3%, and 42.0% (P = 0.0028). ICD implantation at 60 days provided a mean incremental survival of 0.28 months and 0.84 months per patient (compared with implantation at 6 months and 1 year). In sensitivity analyses, patients' competing risk for nonarrhythmic death was the primary determinant of benefit from ICD implantation. Overall, ICD implantation at 60 days resulted in the greatest life expectancy over a wide range of plausible nonarrhythmic and arrhythmic death rates. CONCLUSIONS: The benefits of early ICD implantation are modest when compared with delayed implantation at 6 months/1 year. Our results suggest that making sure a patient receives an ICD, when appropriate, may be more important than the timing of the implantation procedure.
Full Text
Duke Authors
- Al-Khatib, Sana Mustapha
- Anstrom, Kevin J.
- Myers, Evan Robert
- Piccini Sr., Jonathan Paul
- Schmidler, Gillian Denise Sanders
Cited Authors
- Piccini, JP; Al-Khatib, SM; Myers, ER; Anstrom, KJ; Buxton, AE; Peterson, ED; Sanders, GD
Published Date
- July 2010
Published In
Volume / Issue
- 21 / 7
Start / End Page
- 791 - 798
PubMed ID
- 20132397
Electronic International Standard Serial Number (EISSN)
- 1540-8167
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)
- 10.1111/j.1540-8167.2009.01696.x
Language
- eng
Conference Location
- United States