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The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Ariely, D; Au, WT; Bender, RH; Budescu, DV; Dietz, CB; Gu, H; Wallsten, TS; Zauberman, G
Published in: Journal of experimental psychology. Applied
June 2000

The average probability estimate of J > 1 judges is generally better than its components. Two studies test 3 predictions regarding averaging that follow from theorems based on a cognitive model of the judges and idealizations of the judgment situation. Prediction 1 is that the average of conditionally pairwise independent estimates will be highly diagnostic, and Prediction 2 is that the average of dependent estimates (differing only by independent error terms) may be well calibrated. Prediction 3 contrasts between- and within-subject averaging. Results demonstrate the predictions' robustness by showing the extent to which they hold as the information conditions depart from the ideal and as J increases. Practical consequences are that (a) substantial improvement can be obtained with as few as 2-6 judges and (b) the decision maker can estimate the nature of the expected improvement by considering the information conditions.

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Published In

Journal of experimental psychology. Applied

DOI

EISSN

1939-2192

ISSN

1076-898X

Publication Date

June 2000

Volume

6

Issue

2

Start / End Page

130 / 147

Related Subject Headings

  • Probability Learning
  • Motivation
  • Judgment
  • Humans
  • Experimental Psychology
  • Decision Making
  • Adult
  • 5205 Social and personality psychology
  • 5204 Cognitive and computational psychology
  • 5201 Applied and developmental psychology
 

Citation

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Ariely, D., Au, W. T., Bender, R. H., Budescu, D. V., Dietz, C. B., Gu, H., … Zauberman, G. (2000). The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges. Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied, 6(2), 130–147. https://doi.org/10.1037//1076-898x.6.2.130
Ariely, D., W. T. Au, R. H. Bender, D. V. Budescu, C. B. Dietz, H. Gu, T. S. Wallsten, and G. Zauberman. “The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges.Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied 6, no. 2 (June 2000): 130–47. https://doi.org/10.1037//1076-898x.6.2.130.
Ariely D, Au WT, Bender RH, Budescu DV, Dietz CB, Gu H, et al. The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges. Journal of experimental psychology Applied. 2000 Jun;6(2):130–47.
Ariely, D., et al. “The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges.Journal of Experimental Psychology. Applied, vol. 6, no. 2, June 2000, pp. 130–47. Epmc, doi:10.1037//1076-898x.6.2.130.
Ariely D, Au WT, Bender RH, Budescu DV, Dietz CB, Gu H, Wallsten TS, Zauberman G. The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges. Journal of experimental psychology Applied. 2000 Jun;6(2):130–147.

Published In

Journal of experimental psychology. Applied

DOI

EISSN

1939-2192

ISSN

1076-898X

Publication Date

June 2000

Volume

6

Issue

2

Start / End Page

130 / 147

Related Subject Headings

  • Probability Learning
  • Motivation
  • Judgment
  • Humans
  • Experimental Psychology
  • Decision Making
  • Adult
  • 5205 Social and personality psychology
  • 5204 Cognitive and computational psychology
  • 5201 Applied and developmental psychology