The costs--economic and social--of projected increased use of long-term care services by the oldest old will be borne by third-party payers and by their families, who already supply the bulk of personal care services in the community. However, use of health services is concerned among a relatively small group of disabled aged; efficient planning for those aged 85 and over requires early reliable identification of those most in need. Life table models can be used to display health care policy options.