Scholars@Duke

• Background
• 

  Duke Appointment History

  • Research Professor in the Center for Demographic Studies, Demographic Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1985 - 2009
  • Research Professor of Sociology, Sociology, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1995 - 2009
  • Scientific Director, Demographic Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1996 - 2005
  • Research Professor in Community and Family Medicine, Community and Family Medicine, Clinical Science Departments 1994 - 1999
• Research
• 

  Selected Grants

  • Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1998 - 2009
  • Scientific Recruitment for the Demography of Aging awarded by National Institutes of Health 1999 - 2006
  • Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 2006
  • Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 2005
  • Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography - Administrative Supplement for Close Down Funds awarded by National Institutes of Health 2004 - 2005
  • Population Models of Factors Affecting Health Trends awarded by National Institutes of Health 2000 - 2005
  • Population Models of Factors Affecting Health Trends awarded by National Institutes of Health 1997 - 2005
  • Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy (supplement) awarded by National Institutes of Health 1999 - 2004
  • Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 2004
  • Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institutes of Health 1994 - 2004
  • Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 2003
  • A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1999 - 2002
  • (97-0773) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 2002
  • (96-1055) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 2002
  • (98-0503) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 2002
  • Functional & Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 2002
  • (95-0252) Hip Fracture Mortality Analysis awarded by National Institute on Aging 1996 - 2000
  • (97-0720) Population Effect of Chronic Disease and Mortality awarded by National Institute on Aging 1996 - 2000
  • (98-0699) Population Effect of Chronic Disease and Mortality awarded by National Institute on Aging 1996 - 2000
  • (94-0746) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (96-0009) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (96-1020) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (97-0892) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (98-0859) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (92-0927) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1998
  • (94-0957) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1998
  • (95-1038) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1998
  • (96-0892) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1998
  • (97-1059) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1998
  • (93-0589) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1997
  • (94-0133) Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1997
  • (95-0086) Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institute on Aging 1980 - 1997
  • (97-0198) Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institute on Aging 1980 - 1997
  • (96-0673) Breast Cancer Pilot Project awarded by National Institute on Aging 1996 - 1997
  • (91-0611) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (93-0897) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (94-0870) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (95-0825) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (96-0891) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (91-0529) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (93-0797) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1996
  • (94-0282) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1996
  • (95-0247) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1996
  • (96-0252) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1996
  • (95-0114) Social and Medical Demography of Aging awarded by National Institute on Aging 1986 - 1996
  • (90-0001) A Collaborative Study of Aging in the U.S. and Australia awarded by National Institute on Aging 1991 - 1996
  • (94-0148) Evidence from Surveys on Health Correlates of Scheduled Retirement Age Changes awarded by Social Security Administration 1995 - 1996
  • (95-0248) Evidence from the National Long Term Care Survey and Medicare Beneficiary Survey awarded by Social Security Administration 1995 - 1996
  • (89-0574) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1993
  • (90-0338) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1993
  • (91-0414) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1993
  • (92-0485) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1993
  • (87-0145) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (89-0166) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1992
  • (89-0795) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1992
  • (91-0123) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institute on Aging 1980 - 1992
  • (92-0175) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1992
  • (88-0112) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (88-0634) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (89-0682) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (90-0613) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (91-0783) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1992
  • (86-0010) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (88-0569) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly--1982-1988 awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (89-0634) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly-- 1982-1988 awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (90-0589) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly--1982-1988 awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (91-0346) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly -- 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1992
  • (91-0636) Functional & Health Changes of the Elderly 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1992
  • (89-0389) Development and Use of Statistical and Biological Models in Assessing Environmental Health Effects awarded by Environmental Protection Agency 1989 - 1992
  • (92-0087) Development and Use of Statistical and Biological Models in Assessing Environmental Health Effects awarded by Environmental Protection Agency 1989 - 1991
  • (90-0558) Characterization of the Functionally Disabled Elderly Population awarded by National Institutes of Health 1990
  • (89-0752) Trends in Patterns of Post-hospital Service Use and Their Impact on Outcomes awarded by Health Care Financing Administration 1987 - 1990
  • (87-0158) Patterns of Post Hospital Service Use and Outcomes awarded by Health Care Financing Administration 1987 - 1990
  • (88-0541) Trends in Patterns of Post-Hospital Service Use and their Impact on Outcomes awarded by Health Care Financing Administration 1987 - 1990
  • (89-0740) The Characteristics of the Elderly LTC Population and Its Service Use awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1990
  • (87-0093) Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1989
  • (87-0010) Methods for Ecologiccal Mortality and Morbidity Analysis awarded by Environmental Protection Agency 1984 - 1989
  • (88-0674) Methods for Ecological Mortality and Morbidity Analysis awarded by Environmental Protection Agency 1984 - 1989
  • (89-0093) GOM Analysis of Demographic, Sociological & Economic Characteristics of US Counties awarded by Department of Agriculture 1988
  • (87-0373) A National and Crossnational Study of LTC Populations awarded by Health Care Financing Administration 1984 - 1988
  • (87-0468) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1987
  • (87-0510) An Analysis of Variations in Surgical Mortality in Region 2 awarded by Department of Veterans Affairs 1987
• Publications & Artistic Works
• 

  Selected Publications

  • Book Sections

    • Manton, KG, Holzer, CE, MacKenzie, E, Spitznagel, E, Forsythe, A, and Jackson, D. "Statistical Methods for Estimating and Extrapolating Disease Prevalence and Incidence Rates from a Multisite Study." In Epidemiologic Field Methods in Psychiatry: The NIMH Epidemiologic Catchment Area Program, 351-373. December 2, 2012.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, and Morley, JE. "The Demography of Ageing." In Pathy's Principles and Practice of Geriatric Medicine: Fifth Edition, 23-32. March 12, 2012.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "The Future of Old Age." In Brocklehurst's Textbook of Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology, 11-17. December 27, 2010.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "Epidemiology." In Encyclopedia of Gerontology, 502-513. December 1, 2010.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "Life expectancy." In Encyclopedia of Gerontology, 61-67. December 1, 2010.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "Population and labor force aging, effect on socio-economic development in brazil, russia, india and china." In International Encyclopedia of Public Health, 170-181. December 1, 2008.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "Active life expectancy." In International Encyclopedia of Public Health, 12-24. December 1, 2008.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Huang, H, and Gu, X. "Molecular basis of CNS aging, frailty, fitness and longevity: Amodel based on cellular energetics." In Topics in Aging Research, 59-92. March 1, 2008.

  • Conference Papers

    • Manton, KG, Land, KC, and Stallard, E. "Human aging and mortality." 2007.  Full Text  Link to Item

  • Journal Articles

    • Manton, KG, Gu, X-L, Ullian, A, Tolley, HD, Headen, AE, and Lowrimore, G. "Long-term economic growth stimulus of human capital preservation in the elderly." Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106, no. 50 (December 15, 2009): 21080-21085.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Gu, X-L, Lowrimore, G, Ullian, A, and Tolley, HD. "NIH funding trajectories and their correlations with US health dynamics from 1950 to 2004." Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106, no. 27 (July 7, 2009): 10981-10986.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Akushevich, I, Kovtun, M, Manton, KG, and Yashin, AI. "Linear Latent Structure Analysis and Modelling of Multiple Categorical Variables." Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 10, no. 3 (2009): 203-218.  Full Text
    • Mikhal'skiĭ, AI, Rodionov, IA, Manton, KG, Christensen, K, and Iashin, AI. "[Investigation of disability prevalence in men and women of advanced age]." Adv Gerontol 22, no. 4 (2009): 569-587.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Gu, X, and Lowrimore, GR. "Cohort changes in active life expectancy in the U.S. elderly population: experience from the 1982-2004 National Long-Term Care Survey." J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 63, no. 5 (September 2008): S269-S281.  Link to Item
    • MANTON, KG, AKUSHEVICH, I, and KULMINSKI, A. "Human Mortality at Extreme Ages: Data from the NLTCS and Linked Medicare Records." Mathematical Population Studies 15, no. 3 (August 4, 2008): 137-159.  Full Text
    • Kulminski, A, Ukraintseva, SV, Arbeev, KG, Manton, KG, Oshima, J, Martin, GM, and Yashin, AI. "Association between APOE epsilon 2/epsilon 3/epsilon 4 polymorphism and disability severity in a national long-term care survey sample." Age and ageing 37, no. 3 (May 2008): 288-293.  Full Text
    • Kulminski, AM, Ukraintseva, SV, Arbeev, KG, Manton, KG, Oshima, J, Martin, GM, Il'yasova, D, and Yashin, AI. "Health-protective and adverse effects of the apolipoprotein E epsilon2 allele in older men." Journal of the American Geriatrics Society 56, no. 3 (March 2008): 478-483.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "Recent declines in chronic disability in the elderly U.S. population: risk factors and future dynamics." Annu Rev Public Health 29 (2008): 91-113. (Review)  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Liao, SM, Goldschmidt-Clermont, PJ, Sugarman, J, and Working Group on Ethics of Progenitor Cell-based Strategies for Disease Prevention, . "Ethical and policy issues relating to progenitor-cell-based strategies for prevention of atherosclerosis." J Med Ethics 33, no. 11 (November 2007): 643-646.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Lowrimore, GR, Ullian, AD, Gu, X, and Tolley, HD. "Labor force participation and human capital increases in an aging population and implications for U.S. research investment." Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104, no. 26 (June 26, 2007): 10802-10807.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Lamb, VL, and Gu, X. "Medicare cost effects of recent U.S. disability trends in the elderly: future implications." J Aging Health 19, no. 3 (June 2007): 359-381.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Akushevich, I, Kravchenko, JS, and Manton, KG. "Health-based population forecasting: effects of smoking on mortality and fertility." Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 27, no. 2 (April 2007): 467-482.  Full Text
    • Goldfield, N, Lamb, V, Manton, K, and Vertrees, J. "Standardize concepts, not tools for quality improvement." The Journal of ambulatory care management 30, no. 2 (April 2007): 116-119.  Full Text
    • Kulminski, A, Yashin, A, Arbeev, K, Akushevich, I, Ukraintseva, S, Land, K, and Manton, K. "Cumulative index of health disorders as an indicator of aging-associated processes in the elderly: results from analyses of the National Long Term Care Survey." Mechanisms of ageing and development 128, no. 3 (March 2007): 250-258.  Full Text
    • Shao, J, Chen, L, Marrs, B, Lee, L, Huang, H, Manton, KG, Martin, GM, and Oshima, J. "SOD2 polymorphisms: unmasking the effect of polymorphism on splicing. (Published online)" BMC Med Genet 8 (March 1, 2007): 7-.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Kovtun, M, Akushevich, I, Manton, KG, and Tolley, HD. "Linear latent structure analysis: Mixture distribution models with linear constraints." Statistical Methodology 4, no. 1 (January 2007): 90-110.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Gu, X, and Lamb, VL. "Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the U.S. elderly population." Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103, no. 48 (November 28, 2006): 18374-18379.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Akushevich, I, Manton, KG, Kulminski, A, Kovtun, M, Kravchenko, J, and Yashin, A. "Population models for the health effects of ionizing radiation." Radiatsionnaia biologiia, radioecologiia 46, no. 6 (November 2006): 663-674. (Review)
    • Kulminski, A, Yashin, A, Ukraintseva, S, Akushevich, I, Arbeev, K, Land, K, and Manton, K. "Accumulation of health disorders as a systemic measure of aging: Findings from the NLTCS data." Mechanisms of ageing and development 127, no. 11 (November 2006): 840-848.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Kulminski, A, Akushevich, I, and Kravchenko, J. "Modeling the effects of biologically incorporated radionuclides and chronic low-dose ionizing radiation exposure on both cancer and chronic non-cancer diseases." Radiatsionnaia biologiia, radioecologiia 46, no. 6 (November 2006): 675-686.
    • Ivanov, VK, Maksioutov, MA, Chekin, SY, Petrov, AV, Biryukov, AP, Kruglova, ZG, Matyash, VA, Tsyb, AF, Manton, KG, and Kravchenko, JS. "The risk of radiation-induced cerebrovascular disease in Chernobyl emergency workers." Health physics 90, no. 3 (March 2006): 199-207.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Gu, XL, and Lamb, VL. "Long-term trends in life expectancy and active life expectancy in the United States." POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 32, no. 1 (March 2006): 81-+.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Kravchenko, J, Goldschmidt-Clermont, PJ, Powell, T, Stallard, E, Akushevich, I, Cuffe, MS, and Manton, KG. "Endothelial progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis: the philosopher's stone for an aging population?." Science of aging knowledge environment : SAGE KE 2005, no. 25 (June 22, 2005): pe18-.  Full Text
    • Ivanov, VK, Manton, KG, Akushevich, I, Gorski, AI, Korelo, AM, Kravchenko, JS, Maksioutov, MA, and Tsyb, AF. "Risk of thyroid cancer after irradiation in children and adults." Current Oncology 12, no. 2 (June 1, 2005): 55-64.
    • Huang, H, and Manton, KG. "Newborn screening for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID): a review. (Published online)" Front Biosci 10 (May 1, 2005): 1024-1039. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Akushevich, I, Kulminski, A, and Manton, KG. "Life Tables with Covariates: Dynamic Model for Nonlinear Analysis of Longitudinal Data." Mathematical Population Studies 12, no. 2 (April 2005): 51-80.  Full Text
    • Golubovsky, M, and Manton, KG. "Genome organization and three kinds of heritable changes: general description and stochastic factors (a review). (Published online)" Front Biosci 10 (January 1, 2005): 335-344. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Golubovsky, M, and Manton, KG. "A three-generation approach in biodemography is based on the developmental profiles and the epigenetics of female gametes. (Published online)" Front Biosci 10 (January 1, 2005): 187-191.  Link to Item
    • Huang, H, Patel, DD, and Manton, KG. "The immune system in aging: roles of cytokines, T cells and NK cells. (Published online)" Front Biosci 10 (January 1, 2005): 192-215. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Loganovsky, KN, Volovik, SV, Manton, KG, Bazyka, DA, and Flor-Henry, P. "Whether ionizing radiation is a risk factor for schizophrenia spectrum disorders?." World J Biol Psychiatry 6, no. 4 (2005): 212-230. (Review)  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KC, Gu, XL, and Ukraintseva, SV. "Declining prevalence of dementia in the U.S. elderly population." Advances in gerontology = Uspekhi gerontologii 16 (January 2005): 30-37.
    • KULMINSKI, A, MANTON, K, AKUSHEVICH, I, and YASHIN, A. "THE EFFECT OF THE ORGANISMS' BODY SIZE AND ENERGY RESERVES IN MODELS FOR POPULATION DYNAMICS." Journal of Biological Systems 12, no. 04 (December 2004): 419-437.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Volovik, S, and Kulminski, A. "ROS effects on neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's disease and related disorders: on environmental stresses of ionizing radiation." Current Alzheimer research 1, no. 4 (November 2004): 277-293. (Review)  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Gu, X, Huang, H, and Kovtun, M. "Fuzzy set analyses of genetic determinants of health and disability status." Statistical methods in medical research 13, no. 5 (October 2004): 395-408.  Full Text
    • Anisimov, VN, Baturin, DA, Popovich, IG, Zabezhinski, MA, Manton, KG, Semenchenko, AV, and Yashin, AI. "Effect of exposure to light-at-night on life span and spontaneous carcinogenesis in female CBA mice." Int J Cancer 111, no. 4 (September 10, 2004): 475-479.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Akushevich, I, and Kulminski, A. "Demographic analysis and modeling of human populations exposed to ionizing radiation." Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library 9 (September 2004): 2144-2152.  Full Text
    • Freedman, VA, Crimmins, E, Schoeni, RF, Spillman, BC, Aykan, H, Kramarow, E, Land, K, Lubitz, J, Manton, K, Martin, LG, Shinberg, D, and Waidmann, T. "Resolving inconsistencies in trends in old-age disability: report from a technical working group." Demography 41, no. 3 (August 2004): 417-441.  Full Text
    • Huang, H, and Manton, KG. "The role of oxidative damage in mitochondria during aging: a review. (Published online)" Front Biosci 9 (May 1, 2004): 1100-1117. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Headen, AE, Manton, KG, and Woodbury, MA. "Co-morbidity and black and white disparities in health and functional status." Review of Black Political Economy 31, no. 4 (March 1, 2004).
    • Arbeev, KG, Butov, AA, Manton, KG, Sannikov, IA, and Yashin, AI. "Disability trends in gender and race groups of early retirement ages in the USA." Sozial- und Praventivmedizin 49, no. 2 (January 2004): 142-151.  Full Text
    • Kulminski, A, Akushevich, I, and Manton, K. "Modeling nonlinear effects in longitudinal survival data: implications for the physiological dynamics of biological systems." Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library 9 (January 2004): 481-493. (Review)  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Shactman, D, and Altman, SH. "Better health, lower spending [2] (multiple letters)." Health Affairs 23, no. 1 (January 1, 2004): 273-274. (Letter)  Full Text
    • Anisimov, VN, Alimova, IN, Baturin, DA, Popovich, IG, Zabezhinski, MA, Rosenfeld, SV, Manton, KG, Semenchenko, AV, and Yashin, AI. "Dose-dependent effect of melatonin on life span and spontaneous tumor incidence in female SHR mice." Exp Gerontol 38, no. 4 (April 2003): 449-461.  Link to Item
    • Anisimov, VN, Alimova, IN, Baturin, DA, Popovich, IG, Zabezhinski, MA, Manton, KG, Semenchenko, AV, and Yashin, AI. "The effect of melatonin treatment regimen on mammary adenocarcinoma development in HER-2/neu transgenic mice." Int J Cancer 103, no. 3 (January 20, 2003): 300-305.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Forecasting the nursing home population." Med Care 41, no. 1 (January 2003): 21-24.  Link to Item
    • Corder, EH, Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Field, LL. "Grade-of-membership sibpair linkage analysis maps IDDM11 to chromosome 14q24.3-q31." ANNALS OF HUMAN GENETICS 65 (July 2001): 387-394.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Gu, X. "Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999." Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 98, no. 11 (May 22, 2001): 6354-6359.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Land, KC. "Multidimensional disability/mortality trajectories at ages 65 and over: The impact of state dependence." SOCIAL INDICATORS RESEARCH 51, no. 2 (August 2000): 193-221.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Land, KC. "Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: a multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed cohorts, 1982-1996." Demography 37, no. 3 (August 2000): 253-265.  Link to Item
    • Liu, K, Manton, KG, and Aragon, C. "Changes in home care use by disabled elderly persons: 1982-1994." J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 55, no. 4 (July 2000): S245-S253.  Link to Item
    • Corder, EH, Basun, H, Fratiglioni, L, Guo, Z, Lannfelt, L, Viitanen, M, Corder, LS, Manton, KG, and Winblad, B. "Inherited frailty. ApoE alleles determine survival after a diagnosis of heart disease or stroke at ages 85+." Ann N Y Acad Sci 908 (June 2000): 295-298.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Gender differences in the cross-sectional and cohort age dependence of cause-specific mortality: the United States, 1962 to 1995." J Gend Specif Med 3, no. 4 (May 2000): 47-54.  Link to Item
    • Manton, K. "Mortality oscillations induced by periodic starvation alter sex-mortality differentials in Mediterranean fruit flies." The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences 55, no. 1 (January 2000): B54-B55.  Full Text
    • Potthoff, RF, Manton, KG, and Woodbury, MA. "Dirichlet Generalizations of Latent-Class Models." J. Classification 17 (2000): 315-353.  Full Text
    • Zuev, SM, Yashin, AI, Manton, KG, Dowd, E, Pogojev, IB, and Usmanov, RN. "Vitality index in survival modeling: how physiological aging influences mortality." J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 55, no. 1 (January 2000): B10-B19.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Land, KC. "“Critique of Mexico’s New Social Security Act”, Octavio Maupomé-Carvantes, July, 1999." North American Actuarial Journal 3, no. 3 (July 1999): 101-102.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "Dynamic paradigms for human mortality and aging." J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 54, no. 6 (June 1999): B247-B254.  Link to Item
    • Andreopoulos, S, Pardes, H, Manton, KG, Lander, ES, Ullian, A, Tolley, HD, and Palmer, H. "Health care costs [3] (multiple letters)." Science 283, no. 5403 (February 5, 1999): 792-794. (Letter)
    • Manton, KG, and Dowd, E. "Models for forecasting chronic disease processes in adult and elderly populations: effects of stochasticity." J Epidemiol Biostat 4, no. 1 (1999): 11-18. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Pardes, H, Manton, KG, Lander, ES, Tolley, HD, Ullian, AD, and Palmer, H. "Effects of medical research on health care and economy." Science 283, no. 5398 (January 1, 1999): 36-37.  Link to Item
    • Singer, BH, and Manton, KG. "The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States." Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 95, no. 26 (December 22, 1998): 15618-15622.  Link to Item
    • Vaupel, JW, Carey, JR, Christensen, K, Johnson, TE, Yashin, AI, Holm, NV, Iachine, IA, Kannisto, V, Khazaeli, AA, Liedo, P, Longo, VD, Zeng, Y, Manton, KG, and Curtsinger, JW. "Biodemographic trajectories of longevity." Science 280, no. 5365 (May 8, 1998): 855-860. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Land, KC. "“Social Security: Regressive or Progressive?”, Robert L. Brown, April 1998." North American Actuarial Journal 2, no. 2 (April 1998): 27-28.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Corder, L. "Economic Effects of Reducing Disability." American Economic Review 88, no. 2 (1998): 101-105.
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Corder, LS. "The dynamics of dimensions of age-related disability 1982 to 1994 in the U.S. elderly population." J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 53, no. 1 (January 1998): B59-B70.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Forecasting methods for HIV/AIDS and aging." Research on Aging 20, no. 6 (1998): 846-864.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Corder, L. "Education-specific estimates of life expectancy and age-specific disability in the U.S. elderly population: 1982 to 1991." J Aging Health 9, no. 4 (November 1997): 419-450.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Corder, LS, and Stallard, E. "Monitoring changes in the health of the U.S. elderly population: correlates with biomedical research and clinical innovations." FASEB J 11, no. 12 (October 1997): 923-930. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Future trends in chronic disability and institutionalization: implications for long-term care needs." Health Care Manag 3, no. 1 (June 1997): 177-191. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Tolley, HD. "Convex models of high dimensional discrete data." ANNALS OF THE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL MATHEMATICS 49, no. 2 (June 1997): 371-393.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Corder, L, and Stallard, E. "Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations: 1982-1994." Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 94, no. 6 (March 18, 1997): 2593-2598.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Corder, L. "Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: cohort and other determinants." Demography 34, no. 1 (February 1997): 135-157. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Lowrimore, G, Yashin, A, and Tolley, HD. "Analyses of cohort mortality incorporating observed and unobserved risk factors." Mathematical and Computer Modelling 25, no. 7 (1997): 89-107.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "Demographic trends for the aging female population." J Am Med Womens Assoc (1972) 52, no. 3 (1997): 99-105.  Link to Item
    • Yashin, AI, Manton, KG, and Lowrimore, GR. "Evaluating partially observed survival histories: Retrospective projection of covariate trajectories." Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis 13, no. 1 (1997): 1-13.
    • Yashin, AI, and Manton, KG. "Effects of Unobserved and Partially Observed Covariate Processes on System Failure: A Review of Models and Estimation Strategies." Statistical Science 12, no. 1 (1997): 20-34.
    • Corder, LS, and Manton, KG. "Recent nursing home data: A multivariate analysis of two-repeated cross-sectional surveys of the institutionalized aged." Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 22, no. 2 (December 1, 1996): 141-160. (Review)
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Longevity in the united states: age and sex-specific evidence on life span limits from mortality patterns 1960-1990." J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 51, no. 5 (September 1996): B362-B375.  Link to Item
    • Basun, H, Corder, EH, Guo, Z, Lannfelt, L, Corder, LS, Manton, KG, Winblad, B, and Viitanen, M. "Apolipoprotein E polymorphism and stroke in a population sample aged 75 years or more." Stroke 27, no. 8 (August 1996): 1310-1315.  Link to Item
    • Corder, EH, Lannfelt, L, Viitanen, M, Corder, LS, Manton, KG, Winblad, B, and Basun, H. "Apolipoprotein E genotype determines survival in the oldest old (85 years or older) who have good cognition." Arch Neurol 53, no. 5 (May 1996): 418-422.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Newcomer, R, Lowrimore, GR, and Vertrees, JC. "Prior and current costs in capitated health plans: the effects of health status at enrollment." J Aging Health 8, no. 2 (May 1996): 183-206.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Corder, LS, Woodbury, MA, and Manton, KG. "Proxy response patterns among the aged: effects on estimates of health status and medical care utilization from the 1982-1984 long-term care surveys." J Clin Epidemiol 49, no. 2 (February 1996): 173-182.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs." J Aging Soc Policy 7, no. 3-4 (1996): 25-52. (Review)  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Preston, SH, Elo, IT, Hughes-Davis, TH, Sallar, AM, Hogg, RS, Schechter, MT, Manton, KG, and Vaupel, JC. "Survival after age 80 [2]." New England Journal of Medicine 334, no. 8 (1996): 537-538.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Newcomer, R, Lowrimore, GR, Vertrees, JC, and Harrington, C. "Evaluating long-term care demonstrations in real time with study design and plan performance interactions." Med Care 33, no. 12 (December 1995): 1210-1227.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Vaupel, JW. "Survival after the age of 80 in the United States, Sweden, France, England, and Japan." N Engl J Med 333, no. 18 (November 2, 1995): 1232-1235.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, and Stallard, E. "Sex differences in human mortality and aging at late ages: the effect of mortality selection and state dynamics." Gerontologist 35, no. 5 (October 1995): 597-608.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Cornelius, ES, and Woodbury, MA. "Nursing home residents: a multivariate analysis of their medical, behavioral, psychosocial, and service use characteristics." J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 50, no. 5 (September 1995): M242-M251.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Corder, L. "Changes in morbidity and chronic disability in the U.S. elderly population: evidence from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys." J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 50, no. 4 (July 1995): S194-S204.  Link to Item
    • Newcomer, RJ, Harrington, C, Manton, KG, and Lynch, M. "A response to representatives from the social HMOs regarding program evaluation." Gerontologist 35, no. 3 (June 1995): 292-293. (Letter)  Link to Item
    • Newcomer, R, Manton, K, Harrington, C, Yordi, C, and Vertrees, J. "Case mix controlled service use and expenditures in the social/health maintenance organization demonstration." The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences 50A, no. 1 (January 1995): M35-M44.  Full Text
    • Yashin, AI, Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, and Stallard, E. "The effects of health histories on stochastic process models of aging and mortality." J Math Biol 34, no. 1 (1995): 1-16.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, Woodbury, MA, and Dowd, JE. "Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging: multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz." J Gerontol 49, no. 4 (July 1994): B169-B190.  Link to Item
    • WOODBURY, MA, MANTON, KG, and TOLLEY, HD. "A GENERAL-MODEL FOR STATISTICAL-ANALYSIS USING FUZZY-SETS - SUFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR IDENTIFIABILITY AND STATISTICAL PROPERTIES." INFORMATION SCIENCES-APPLICATIONS 1, no. 3 (May 1994): 149-180.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Newcomer, R, Vertrees, JC, Lowrimore, GR, and Harrington, C. "A method for adjusting capitation payments to managed care plans using multivariate patterns of health and functioning: the experience of Social/Health Maintenance Organizations." Med Care 32, no. 3 (March 1994): 277-297.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Korten, A, Woodbury, MA, Anker, M, and Jablensky, A. "Symptom profiles of psychiatric disorders based on graded disease classes: an illustration using data from the WHO International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia." Psychol Med 24, no. 1 (February 1994): 133-144.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Woodbury, MA. "Home health and skilled nursing facility use: 1982-90." Health Care Financ Rev 16, no. 1 (1994): 155-186. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Yashin, AI, and Manton, KG. "Modifications of the EM algorithm for survival influenced by an unobserved stochastic process." Stochastic Processes and their Applications 54, no. 2 (1994): 257-274.
    • Potthoff, RF, Manton, KG, and Woodbury, MA. "Correcting for Nonavailability Bias in Surveys by Weighting Based on Number of Callbacks." Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, no. 424 (December 1993): 1197-1207.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Vertrees, JC, and Clark, RF. "A multivariate analysis of disability and health, and its change over time in the National Channeling Demonstration data." Gerontologist 33, no. 5 (October 1993): 610-618.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Liu, K. "Forecasts of active life expectancy: policy and fiscal implications." J Gerontol 48 Spec No (September 1993): 11-26.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, Vertrees, JC, and Stallard, E. "Use of Medicare services before and after introduction of the prospective payment system." Health Serv Res 28, no. 3 (August 1993): 269-292.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Corder, LS, and Stallard, E. "Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence and prevalence rates in the U.S. elderly population from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey." J Gerontol 48, no. 4 (July 1993): S153-S166.  Link to Item
    • Liu, K, Perozek, M, and Manton, K. "Catastrophic acute and long-term care costs: risks faced by disabled elderly persons." The Gerontologist 33, no. 3 (June 1993): 299-307.  Full Text
    • Potthoff, RF, Woodbury, MA, and Manton, KG. "Reply to Kott's Letter." Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, no. 422 (June 1993): 716-717.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Corder, L, and Stallard, E. "Changes in the use of personal assistance and special equipment from 1982 to 1989: results from the 1982 and 1989 NLTCS." Gerontologist 33, no. 2 (April 1993): 168-176.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Lowrimore, G, and Yashin, A. "Methods for combining ancillary data in stochastic compartment models of cancer mortality: generalization of heterogeneity models." Math Popul Stud 4, no. 2 (1993): 133-149.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Newcomer, R, Lowrimore, GR, Vertrees, JC, and Harrington, C. "Social/health maintenance organization and fee-for-service health outcomes over time." Health Care Financ Rev 15, no. 2 (1993): 173-202.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Singer, B. "Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population." Int J Forecast 8, no. 3 (November 1992): 433-458.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Demographics (1950-1987) of breast cancer in birth cohorts of older women." J Gerontol 47 Spec No (November 1992): 32-42.  Link to Item
    • Dowd, JE, and Manton, KG. "Projections of disability consequences in Indonesia." Journal of Cross-Cultural Gerontology 7, no. 3 (July 1, 1992): 237-258.  Full Text
    • Potthoff, RF, Woodbury, MA, and Manton, KG. "“Equivalent Sample Size” and “Equivalent Degrees of Freedom” Refinements for Inference Using Survey Weights under Superpopulation Models." Journal of the American Statistical Association 87, no. 418 (June 1992): 383-396.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG. "The dynamics of aging: Measurement and intervention issues for health and function." Journal of Cross-Cultural Gerontology 7, no. 2 (April 1, 1992): 185-201. (Review)  Full Text
    • Pekkanen, J, Manton, KG, Stallard, E, Nissinen, A, and Karvonen, MJ. "Risk factor dynamics, mortality and life expectancy differences between eastern and western Finland: the Finnish Cohorts of the Seven Countries Study." Int J Epidemiol 21, no. 2 (April 1992): 406-419.  Link to Item
    • TOLLEY, HD, and MANTON, KG. "LARGE SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF ESTIMATES OF A DISCRETE GRADE OF MEMBERSHIP MODEL." ANNALS OF THE INSTITUTE OF STATISTICAL MATHEMATICS 44, no. 1 (March 1992): 85-95.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Analysis of underwriting factors for AAPCC." Health Care Financing Review 14, no. 1 (1992): 117-132.
    • Manton, KG. "Forecasting health: data needs and implications for model structure." World Health Stat Q 45, no. 1 (1992): 80-88.  Link to Item
    • Riggan, WB, Manton, KG, Creason, JP, Woodbury, MA, and Stallard, E. "Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations." Environ Health Perspect 96 (December 1991): 223-238.  Link to Item
    • Taylor, JO, Cornoni-Huntley, J, Curb, JD, Manton, KG, Ostfeld, AM, Scherr, P, and Wallace, RB. "Blood pressure and mortality risk in the elderly." Am J Epidemiol 134, no. 5 (September 1, 1991): 489-501.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Wing, S. "Analyses of black and white differentials in the age trajectory of mortality in two closed cohort studies." Stat Med 10, no. 7 (July 1991): 1043-1059.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Wrigley, JM, Cohen, HJ, and Woodbury, MA. "Cancer mortality, aging, and patterns of comorbidity in the United States: 1968 to 1986." J Gerontol 46, no. 4 (July 1991): S225-S234.  Link to Item
    • Corder, LS, and Manton, KG. "National Surveys and the Health and Functioning of the Elderly: The Effects of Design and Content." Journal of the American Statistical Association 86, no. 414 (June 1991): 513-525.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Cross-sectional estimates of active life expectancy for the U.S. elderly and oldest-old populations." J Gerontol 46, no. 3 (May 1991): S170-S182.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Tolley, HD. "Rectangularization of the survival curve: implications of an ill-posed question." J Aging Health 3, no. 2 (May 1991): 172-193.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Liu, K, and Manton, K. "Nursing home length of stay and spenddown in Connecticut, 1977-1986." The Gerontologist 31, no. 2 (April 1991): 165-173.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, Wrigley, JM, and Cohen, HJ. "Multivariate procedures to describe clinical staging of melanoma." Methods Inf Med 30, no. 2 (April 1991): 111-116.  Link to Item
    • WOODBURY, MA, and MANTON, KG. "EMPIRICAL BAYES APPROACHES TO MULTIVARIATE FUZZY PARTITIONS." MULTIVARIATE BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH 26, no. 2 (April 1991): 291-321.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, and Stallard, E. "Statistical and measurement issues in assessing the welfare status of aged individuals and populations." Journal of Econometrics 50, no. 1-2 (1991): 151-181.
    • Manton, KG, and Woodbury, MA. "Grade of Membership generalizations and aging research." Exp Aging Res 17, no. 4 (1991): 217-226. (Review)  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "The dynamics of population aging: demography and policy analysis." Milbank Q 69, no. 2 (1991): 309-338. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Dowd, JE, and Manton, KG. "Forecasting chronic disease risks in developing countries." Int J Epidemiol 19, no. 4 (December 1990): 1019-1036.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Vertrees, JC, and Wrigley, JM. "Changes in health service use and mortality among U.S. elderly in 1980-1986." J Aging Health 2, no. 2 (May 1990): 131-156. (Review)  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Liu, K, Doty, P, and Manton, K. "Medicaid spenddown in nursing homes." The Gerontologist 30, no. 1 (February 1990): 7-15.  Full Text
    • Liu, K, Manton, KG, and Liu, BM. "Morbidity, disability, and long-term care of the elderly: implications for insurance financing." Milbank Q 68, no. 3 (1990): 445-492. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Vertrees, JC, and Woodbury, MA. "Functionally and medically defined subgroups of nursing home populations." Health Care Financ Rev 12, no. 1 (1990): 47-62.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Liu, K. "Recent changes in service use patterns of disabled Medicare beneficiaries." Health Care Financ Rev 11, no. 3 (1990): 51-66.  Link to Item
    • Berkman, L, Singer, B, and Manton, K. "Black/white differences in health status and mortality among the elderly." Demography 26, no. 4 (November 1989): 661-678.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, Stallard, E, Riggan, WB, Creason, JP, and Pellom, AC. "Empirical Bayes procedures for stabilizing maps of U.S. cancer mortality rates." J Am Stat Assoc 84, no. 407 (September 1989): 637-650.  Link to Item
    • WOODBURY, MA, and MANTON, KG. "GRADE OF MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS OF DEPRESSION-RELATED PSYCHIATRIC-DISORDERS." SOCIOLOGICAL METHODS & RESEARCH 18, no. 1 (August 1989): 126-163.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • MANTON, KG. "Life-Style Risk Factors." The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 503, no. 1 (May 1989): 72-88.  Full Text
    • Vertrees, JC, Manton, KG, and Mitchell, KC. "Case-mix adjusted analyses of service utilization for a Medicaid health insuring organization in Philadelphia." Med Care 27, no. 4 (April 1989): 397-411.  Link to Item
    • Yashin, AI, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments." Theor Popul Biol 35, no. 2 (April 1989): 119-141.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Tolley, HD, and Vertrees, JC. "Controlling risk in capitation payment. Multivariate definitions of risk groups." Med Care 27, no. 3 (March 1989): 259-272.  Link to Item
    • Liu, K, and Manton, KG. "The effect of nursing home use on Medicaid eligibility." Gerontologist 29, no. 1 (February 1989): 59-66.  Link to Item
    • Blazer, D, Woodbury, M, Hughes, DC, George, LK, Manton, KG, Bachar, JR, and Fowler, N. "A statistical analysis of the classification of depression in a mixed community and clinical sample." J Affect Disord 16, no. 1 (January 1989): 11-20.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Epidemiological, demographic, and social correlates of disability among the elderly." Milbank Q 67 Suppl 2 Pt 1 (1989): 13-58.  Link to Item
    • Vertrees, JC, Manton, KG, and Adler, GS. "Cost effectiveness of home and community-based care." Health Care Financ Rev 10, no. 4 (1989): 65-78.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Measurements of health and disease, a transitional perspective." Vital Health Stat 4 , no. 25 (December 1988): 3-38.  Link to Item
    • Wolf, HK, Rautaharju, PM, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Importance of electrocardiography for coronary risk factor surveys." Lancet 2, no. 8611 (September 10, 1988): 633-634. (Letter)  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "A longitudinal study of functional change and mortality in the United States." J Gerontol 43, no. 5 (September 1988): S153-S161.  Link to Item
    • Jackson, DJ, Woodbury, MA, and Manton, KG. "Classification Model." Bulletin de Méthodologie Sociologique 19, no. 1 (July 1, 1988): 22-52.  Full Text
    • Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Blazer, D. "Trends in US suicide mortality rates 1968 to 1982: race and sex differences in age, period and cohort components." Int J Epidemiol 17, no. 2 (June 1988): 356-362.  Link to Item
    • Blazer, D, Swartz, M, Woodbury, M, Manton, KG, and George, LK. "Depressive symptoms and depressive diagnoses in a community population." Archives of General Psychiatry 45, no. 12 (1988): 1078-1084.
    • Habib, J, Manton, K, Danon, D, Dowd, JE, Galinsky, D, Kovar, MG, Olshansky, SJ, and Suzman, R. "Workshop: Forecasting the care needs of the elderly: Methodology and limitations." Public Health Reports 103, no. 5 (January 1, 1988): 541-543.
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, and Stallard, E. "Commentary. Response to Dr Halperin on ‘models of the interaction of mortality and the evolution of risk factor distribution: A general stochastic process formulation’." Statistics in Medicine 7, no. 1-2 (January 1988): 293-295.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, and Stallard, E. "Models of the interaction of mortality and the evolution of risk factor distribution: a general stochastic process formulation." Stat Med 7, no. 1-2 (January 1988): 239-256.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Planning long-term care for heterogeneous older populations." Annu Rev Gerontol Geriatr 8 (1988): 217-255.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections." World Health Stat Q 41, no. 3-4 (1988): 255-266.  Link to Item
    • Pratt, JA, Velez, R, Brender, JD, and Manton, KG. "Racial differences in acute lymphocytic leukemia mortality and incidence trends." J Clin Epidemiol 41, no. 4 (1988): 367-371.  Link to Item
    • Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Yashin, AI. "Estimating hidden morbidity via its effect on mortality and disability." Stat Med 7, no. 1-2 (January 1988): 325-336.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Forecasting health status changes in an aging U.S. population: Assessment of the current status and some proposals." Climatic Change 11, no. 1-2 (August 1, 1987): 179-210.  Full Text
    • Baum, HM, and Manton, KG. "National trends in stroke-related mortality: a comparison of multiple cause mortality data with survey and other health data." Gerontologist 27, no. 3 (June 1987): 293-300.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, Woodbury, MA, Riggan, WB, Creason, JP, and Mason, TJ. "Statistically adjusted estimates of geographic mortality profiles." J Natl Cancer Inst 78, no. 5 (May 1987): 805-815.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Myers, GC, and Andrews, GR. "Morbidity and disability patterns in four developing nations: Their implications for social and economic integration of the elderly." Journal of Cross-Cultural Gerontology 2, no. 2 (April 1, 1987): 115-129.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, Blazer, DG, and Woodbury, MA. "Suicide in middle age and later life: sex and race specific life table and cohort analyses." J Gerontol 42, no. 2 (March 1987): 219-227.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "The linkage of health status changes and disability." Compr Gerontol A 1, no. 1 (February 1987): 16-24.  Link to Item
    • Cohen, HJ, Cox, E, Manton, K, and Woodbury, M. "Malignant melanoma in the elderly." J Clin Oncol 5, no. 1 (January 1987): 100-106.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • MANTON, KG, and MYERS, GC. "RECENT TRENDS IN MULTIPLE-CAUSED MORTALITY 1968 TO 1982 - AGE AND COHORT COMPONENTS." POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW 6, no. 2 (1987): 161-176.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Patrick, CH, and Johnson, KW. "Health differentials between blacks and whites: recent trends in mortality and morbidity." Milbank Q 65 Suppl 1 (1987): 129-199. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Hausner, T. "A multidimensional approach to case mix for home health services." Health Care Financ Rev 8, no. 4 (1987): 37-54.  Link to Item
    • Swartz, MS, Blazer, DG, Woodbury, MA, George, LK, and Manton, KG. "A study of somatization disorder in a community population utilizing grade of membership analysis." Psychiatr Dev 5, no. 3 (1987): 219-237.  Link to Item
    • Vaupel, JW, Yashin, AI, and Manton, KG. "Debilitation's aftermath: stochastic process models of mortality." Math Popul Stud 1, no. 1 (1987): 21-48.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Dowd, JE, and Woodbury, MA. "Conceptual and measurement issues in assessing disability cross-nationally: Analysis of a WHO-sponsored survey of the disablement process in Indonesia." Journal of Cross-Cultural Gerontology 1, no. 4 (December 1, 1986): 339-362.  Full Text
    • Allen, C, Cox, EB, Manton, KG, and Cohen, HJ. "Breast cancer in the elderly. Current patterns of care." J Am Geriatr Soc 34, no. 9 (September 1986): 637-642.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Malker, H, and Malker, B. "Comparison of temporal changes in U.S. and Swedish lung cancer, 1950-51 to 1981-82." J Natl Cancer Inst 77, no. 3 (September 1986): 665-675.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Vaupel, JW. "Alternative models for the heterogeneity of mortality risks among the aged." J Am Stat Assoc 81, no. 395 (September 1986): 635-644.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Past and future life expectancy increases at later ages: their implications for the linkage of chronic morbidity, disability, and mortality." J Gerontol 41, no. 5 (September 1986): 672-681.  Link to Item
    • Blazer, DG, Bachar, JR, and Manton, KG. "Suicide in late life. Review and commentary." J Am Geriatr Soc 34, no. 7 (July 1986): 519-525.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Siegler, IC, and Woodbury, MA. "Patterns of intellectual development in later life." J Gerontol 41, no. 4 (July 1986): 486-499.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, Creason, JP, Riggan, WB, and Woodbury, MA. "Compartment model approaches for estimating the parameters of a chronic disease process under changing risk factor exposures." Comput Biomed Res 19, no. 2 (April 1986): 151-169.  Link to Item
    • Vertrees, JC, and Manton, KG. "A multivariate approach for classifying hospitals and computing blended payment rates." Med Care 24, no. 4 (April 1986): 283-300.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Cause specific mortality patterns among the oldest old: multiple cause of death trends 1968 to 1980." J Gerontol 41, no. 2 (March 1986): 282-289.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, Woodbury, MA, and Yashin, AI. "Applications of the grade of membership technique to event history analysis: Extensions to multivariate unobserved heterogeneity." Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 9-12 (1986): 1375-1391.
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Woodbury, MA. "Chronic disease evolution and human aging: A general model for assessing the impact of chronic disease in human populations." Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 5-8 (1986): 1155-1171.
    • Vertrees, J, and Manton, KG. "The complexity of chronic disease at later ages: practical implications for prospective payment and data collection." Inquiry 23, no. 2 (1986): 154-165.  Link to Item
    • Yashin, AI, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Evaluating the effects of observed and unobserved diffusion processes in survival analysis of longitudinal data." Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 9-12 (1986): 1353-1363.
    • Yashin, AI, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model." J Math Biol 24, no. 2 (1986): 119-140.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Future patterns of chronic disease incidence, disability, and mortality among the elderly. Implications for the demand for acute and long-term health care." N Y State J Med 85, no. 11 (November 1985): 623-633.  Link to Item
    • Blazer, D, George, LK, Landerman, R, Pennybacker, M, Melville, ML, Woodbury, M, Manton, KG, Jordan, K, and Locke, B. "Psychiatric disorders. A rural/urban comparison." Arch Gen Psychiatry 42, no. 7 (July 1985): 651-656.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, Creason, JP, and Riggan, WB. "U.S. cancer mortality 1950-1978: a strategy for analyzing spatial and temporal patterns." Environ Health Perspect 60 (May 1985): 369-380.  Link to Item
    • Yashin, AI, Manton, KG, and Vaupel, JW. "Mortality and aging in a heterogeneous population: a stochastic process model with observed and unobserved variables." Theor Popul Biol 27, no. 2 (April 1985): 154-175.  Link to Item
    • MANTON, KG, and LIU, K. "Strategies for Collating Diverse Scientific Evidence in the Analysis of Population Health Characteristics." Sociological Methods & Research 13, no. 3 (February 1985): 407-431.  Full Text
    • Liu, K, Manton, KG, and Liu, BM. "Home care expenses for the disabled elderly." Health Care Financ Rev 7, no. 2 (1985): 51-58.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Liu, K, and Cornelius, ES. "An analysis of the heterogeneity of U.S. nursing home patients." J Gerontol 40, no. 1 (January 1985): 34-46.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Soldo, BJ. "Dynamics of health changes in the oldest old: new perspectives and evidence." Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc 63, no. 2 (1985): 206-285. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Soldo, BJ, and Manton, KG. "Health status and service needs of the oldest old: current patterns and future trends." Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc 63, no. 2 (1985): 286-319. (Review)  Link to Item
    • Soldo, BJ, and Manton, KG. "Demographic challenges for socioeconomic planning." Socioecon Plann Sci 19, no. 4 (1985): 227-247.  Link to Item
    • Wing, S, Manton, KG, Stallard, E, Hames, CG, and Tryoler, HA. "The black/white mortality crossover: investigation in a community-based study." J Gerontol 40, no. 1 (January 1985): 78-84.  Link to Item
    • Wing, S, Tyroler, HA, and Manton, KG. "The participant effect: mortality in a community-based study compared to vital statistics." J Chronic Dis 38, no. 2 (1985): 135-144.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Vertrees, JC. "The use of Grade of Membership analysis to evaluate and modify diagnosis-related groups." Med Care 22, no. 12 (December 1984): 1067-1082.  Link to Item
    • Myers, GC, and Manton, KG. "Recent changes in the U.S. age at death distribution: further observations." Gerontologist 24, no. 6 (December 1984): 572-575.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Soldo, BJ, and Vierck, E. ""Death and taxes": a contrary view." Popul Today 12, no. 11 (November 1984): 2-9.  Link to Item
    • Myers, GC, and Manton, KG. "Compression of mortality: myth or reality?." Gerontologist 24, no. 4 (August 1984): 346-353.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Liu, K. "Projecting chronic disease prevalence." Med Care 22, no. 6 (June 1984): 511-526.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Baum, HM. "CVD mortality, 1968-1978: observations and implications." Stroke 15, no. 3 (May 1984): 451-457.  Link to Item
    • Liu, K, and Manton, KG. "The characteristics and utilization pattern of an admission cohort of nursing home patients (II)." Gerontologist 24, no. 1 (February 1984): 70-76.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, and Liu, K. "Life table methods for assessing the dynamics of U.S. nursing home utilization: 1976-1977." J Gerontol 39, no. 1 (January 1984): 79-87.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Mortality patterns in developed countries." Comp Soc Res 7 (1984): 259-286.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Methods and issues in the projection of population health status." World Health Stat Q 37, no. 3 (1984): 294-305.  Link to Item
    • Liu, K, and Manton, KG. "The length-of-stay pattern of nursing home admissions." Med Care 21, no. 12 (December 1983): 1211-1222.  Link to Item
    • Tolley, HD, and Manton, KG. "Multiple cause models of disease dependency." Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 1983, no. 4 (October 1983): 211-226.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, and Woodbury, MA. "A mathematical model of the physiological dynamics of aging and correlated mortality selection: II. Application to the Duke Longitudinal Study." J Gerontol 38, no. 4 (July 1983): 406-413.  Link to Item
    • Woodbury, MA, and Manton, KG. "A mathematical model of the physiological dynamics of aging and correlated mortality selection. I. Theoretical development and critiques." J Gerontol 38, no. 4 (July 1983): 398-405.  Link to Item
    • Woodbury, MA, and Manton, KG. "A theoretical model of the physiological dynamics of circulatory disease in human populations." Hum Biol 55, no. 2 (May 1983): 417-441.  Link to Item
    • Liu, K, and Manton, KG. "The characteristics and utilization pattern of an admission cohort of nursing home patients." Gerontologist 23, no. 1 (February 1983): 92-98.  Link to Item
    • Wing, S, and Manton, KG. "The contribution of hypertension to mortality in the US: 1968, 1977." Am J Public Health 73, no. 2 (February 1983): 140-144.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Tolley, HD. "The economic impact of health policy interventions." Risk Analysis 3, no. 4 (1983): 265-275.
    • Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Letters to the editor." International Journal of Epidemiology 12, no. 1 (1983): 115-117.  Full Text
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977." Demography 19, no. 4 (November 1982): 527-547.  Link to Item
    • Woodbury, MA, and Manton, KG. "A new procedure for analysis of medical classification." Methods Inf Med 21, no. 4 (October 1982): 210-220.  Link to Item
    • Patrick, CH, and Manton, KG. "An Analysis of Changes in the Risk of Mortality from Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease, 1968-1977." RISK ANALYSIS 2, no. 3 (September 1982): 183-193.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "A population-based model of respiratory cancer incidence, progression, diagnosis, treatment, and mortality." Comput Biomed Res 15, no. 4 (August 1982): 342-360.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "The use of mortality time series data to produce hypothetical morbidity distributions and projects mortality trends." Demography 19, no. 2 (May 1982): 223-240.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Riggan, W. "Strategies for analysing ecological health data: models of the biological risk of individuals." Stat Med 1, no. 2 (April 1982): 163-181.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Temporal and age variation of United States black/white cause-specific mortality differentials: a study of the recent changes in the relative health status of the United States black population." Gerontologist 22, no. 2 (April 1982): 170-179.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "A cohort analysis of U.S. stomach cancer mortality 1950-1977." Int J Epidemiol 11, no. 1 (March 1982): 49-61.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Bioactuarial models of national mortality time series data." Health Care Financ Rev 3, no. 3 (March 1982): 89-106.  Link to Item
    • Goodman, RA, Manton, KG, Nolan, TF, Bregman, DJ, and Hinman, AR. "Mortality Data Analysis Using a Multiple-Cause Approach." JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association 247, no. 6 (February 12, 1982): 793-796.  Full Text
    • Goodman, RA, Manton, KG, Nolan, TF, Bregman, DJ, and Hinman, AR. "Mortality data analysis using a multiple-cause approach." JAMA 247, no. 6 (February 12, 1982): 793-796.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population." Milbank Mem Fund Q Health Soc 60, no. 2 (1982): 183-244.  Link to Item
    • Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "A dynamic analysis of chronic disease development: a study of sex specific changes in coronary heart disease incidence and risk factors in Framingham." Int J Epidemiol 10, no. 4 (December 1981): 355-366.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Vaupel, JW. "Methods for comparing the mortality experience of heterogeneous populations." Demography 18, no. 3 (August 1981): 389-410.  Link to Item
    • Wing, S, and Manton, KG. "A multiple cause of death analysis of hypertension-related mortality in North Carolina, 1968-1977." Am J Public Health 71, no. 8 (August 1981): 823-830.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, and Stallard, E. "A variance components approach to categorical data models with heterogeneous cell populations: analysis of spatial gradients in lung cancer mortality rates in North Carolina counties." Biometrics 37, no. 2 (June 1981): 259-269.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Methods for the analysis of mortality risks across heterogeneous small populations: examination of space-time gradients in cancer mortality in North Carolina counties 1970-75." Demography 18, no. 2 (May 1981): 217-230.  Link to Item
    • Lampe Lg Batar, I, Bernard, RP, Kendall, EM, and Manton, KG. "Effects of smoking and of induced abortion on pregnancy outcome." IPPF medical bulletin 15, no. 2 (April 1981): 3-.
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Methods for evaluating the heterogeneity of aging processes in human populations using vital statistics data: explaining the black/white mortality crossover by a model of mortality selection." Hum Biol 53, no. 1 (February 1981): 47-67.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Patrick, CH, and Stallard, E. "Mortality model based on delays in progression of chronic diseases: alternative to cause elimination model." Public Health Rep 95, no. 6 (November 1980): 580-588.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "A stochastic compartment model representation of chronic disease dependence: techniques for evaluating parameters of partially unobserved age inhomogeneous stochastic processes." Theor Popul Biol 18, no. 1 (August 1980): 57-75.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG. "Sex and race specific mortality differentials in multiple cause of death data." Gerontologist 20, no. 4 (August 1980): 480-493.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Patrick, CH, and Stallard, E. "Population impact of mortality reduction: the effects of elimination of major causes of death on the 'saved' population." Int J Epidemiol 9, no. 2 (June 1980): 111-120.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Mortality of the chronically impaired." Demography 17, no. 2 (May 1980): 189-206.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, and Poss, SS. "Estimates of U.S. multiple cause life tables." Demography 17, no. 1 (February 1980): 85-102.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "A two-disease model of female breast cancer: mortality in 1969 among white females in the United States." J Natl Cancer Inst 64, no. 1 (January 1980): 9-16.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Stallard, E, Burdick, D, and Tolley, HD. "A stochastic compartment model of stomach cancer with correlated waiting time distributions." Int J Epidemiol 8, no. 3 (September 1979): 283-291.  Link to Item
    • Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Longitudinal analysis of the dynamics and risk of coronary heart disease in the Framingham Study." Biometrics 35, no. 3 (September 1979): 575-585.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Maximum likelihood estimation of a stochastic compartment model of cancer latency: lung cancer mortality among white females in the U.S." Comput Biomed Res 12, no. 4 (August 1979): 313-325.  Link to Item
    • Vaupel, JW, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality." Demography 16, no. 3 (August 1979): 439-454.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Poss, SS, and Wing, S. "The black/white mortality crossover: investigation from the perspective of the components of aging." Gerontologist 19, no. 3 (June 1979): 291-300.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Poss, SS. "Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies." Demography 16, no. 2 (May 1979): 313-327.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Woodbury, MA, and Stallard, E. "Analysis of the components of CHD risk in the Framingham study: new multivariate procedures for the analysis of chronic disease development." Comput Biomed Res 12, no. 2 (April 1979): 109-123.  Link to Item
    • Smith, J, Bromley, D, and Manton, K. "Changes in the Coincidence of the Boundaries and Populations of Central Cities." Social Forces 57, no. 3 (March 1, 1979): 931-951.  Full Text
    • Tolley, HD, Manton, KG, and Poss, SS. "A linear models application of competing risks to multiple causes of death." Biometrics 34, no. 4 (December 1978): 581-591.  Link to Item
    • Tolley, HD, Burdick, D, Manton, KG, and Stallard, E. "Compartment model approach to the estimation of tumor incidence and growth: investigation of a model of cancer latency." Biometrics 34, no. 3 (September 1978): 377-389.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Poss, SS. "The black/white mortality crossover: possible racial differences in the intrinsic rate of aging." Black Aging 3 (1978): 43-53.  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, and Myers, GC. "The structure of urban mortality. A methodological study of Hannover, Germany. Part II." Int J Epidemiol 6, no. 3 (September 1977): 213-223.  Link to Item
    • Myers, GC, and Manton, KG. "The structure of urban mortality. A methodological study of Hannover, Germany. Part I." Int J Epidemiol 6, no. 3 (September 1977): 203-212.  Link to Item
    • Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Woodbury, LA. "An extension of the sign test for replicated measurements." Biometrics 33, no. 3 (September 1977): 453-461.  Link to Item
    • WOODBURY, MA, and MANTON, KG. "RANDOM-WALK MODEL OF HUMAN MORTALITY AND AGING." THEORETICAL POPULATION BIOLOGY 11, no. 1 (1977): 37-48.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Manton, KG, Tolley, DH, and Poss, SS. "Life table techniques for multiple-cause mortality." Demography 13, no. 4 (November 1976): 541-564.  Link to Item
    • Palmore, EB, and Manton, K. "Modernization and status of the aged: international correlations." Journals of Gerontology 29, no. 2 (January 1, 1974): 205-210.  Full Text
    • Palmore, EB, and Manton, K. "Ageism compared to racism and sexism." Journals of Gerontology 28, no. 3 (January 1, 1973): 363-369.  Full Text
    • Woodbury, MA, Manton, KG, and Siegler, IC. "Markov Network Analysis: suggestions for innovations in covariance structure analysis." Exp Aging Res 8, no. 3-4: 135-140.  Full Text  Link to Item

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