Scholars@Duke

• Background
• 

  Duke Appointment History

  • Research Professor in the Center for Demographic Studies, Demographic Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1985 - 2009
  • Research Professor of Sociology, Sociology, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1995 - 2009
  • Scientific Director, Demographic Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 2002 - 2005
  • Director, Center for Demographic Studies, Demographic Studies, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences 1996 - 2001
  • Research Professor in Community and Family Medicine, Family Medicine and Community Health, Clinical Science Departments 1994 - 1999
• Research
• 

  Selected Grants

  • Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1998 - 2009
  • Scientific Recruitment for the Demography of Aging awarded by National Institutes of Health 1999 - 2006
  • Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 2006
  • Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 2005
  • Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography - Administrative Supplement for Close Down Funds awarded by National Institutes of Health 2004 - 2005
  • Population Models of Factors Affecting Health Trends awarded by National Institutes of Health 2000 - 2005
  • Population Models of Factors Affecting Health Trends awarded by National Institutes of Health 1997 - 2005
  • Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy (supplement) awarded by National Institutes of Health 1999 - 2004
  • Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 2004
  • Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institutes of Health 1994 - 2004
  • Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 2003
  • A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1999 - 2002
  • (97-0773) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 2002
  • (96-1055) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 2002
  • (98-0503) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 2002
  • Functional & Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 2002
  • (95-0252) Hip Fracture Mortality Analysis awarded by National Institute on Aging 1996 - 2000
  • (97-0720) Population Effect of Chronic Disease and Mortality awarded by National Institute on Aging 1996 - 2000
  • (98-0699) Population Effect of Chronic Disease and Mortality awarded by National Institute on Aging 1996 - 2000
  • (94-0746) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (96-0009) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (96-1020) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (97-0892) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (98-0859) Center for Longitudinal Analysis in Medical Demography awarded by National Institute on Aging 1994 - 1999
  • (92-0927) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1998
  • (94-0957) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1998
  • (95-1038) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1998
  • (96-0892) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1998
  • (97-1059) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1998
  • (93-0589) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1997
  • (94-0133) Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1997
  • (95-0086) Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institute on Aging 1980 - 1997
  • (97-0198) Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institute on Aging 1980 - 1997
  • (96-0673) Breast Cancer Pilot Project awarded by National Institute on Aging 1996 - 1997
  • (91-0611) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (93-0897) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (94-0870) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (95-0825) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (96-0891) Forecasting Life and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (91-0529) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1997
  • (93-0797) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1996
  • (94-0282) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1996
  • (95-0247) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1996
  • (96-0252) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1996
  • (95-0114) Social and Medical Demography of Aging awarded by National Institute on Aging 1986 - 1996
  • (90-0001) A Collaborative Study of Aging in the U.S. and Australia awarded by National Institute on Aging 1991 - 1996
  • (94-0148) Evidence from Surveys on Health Correlates of Scheduled Retirement Age Changes 1995 - 1996
  • (95-0248) Evidence from the National Long Term Care Survey and Medicare Beneficiary Survey 1995 - 1996
  • (89-0574) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1993
  • (90-0338) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1993
  • (91-0414) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1993
  • (92-0485) Active Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest-Old Populations awarded by National Institute on Aging 1988 - 1993
  • (87-0145) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (89-0166) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1992
  • (89-0795) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1992
  • (91-0123) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institute on Aging 1980 - 1992
  • (92-0175) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1992
  • (88-0112) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (88-0634) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (89-0682) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life Expectancy awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (90-0613) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (91-0783) Forecasting Life Expectancy and Active Life awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1992
  • (86-0010) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (88-0569) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly--1982-1988 awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (89-0634) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly-- 1982-1988 awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (90-0589) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly--1982-1988 awarded by National Institutes of Health 1987 - 1992
  • (91-0346) Functional and Health Changes of the Elderly -- 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1992
  • (91-0636) Functional & Health Changes of the Elderly 1982-1988 awarded by National Institute on Aging 1987 - 1992
  • (89-0389) Development and Use of Statistical and Biological Models in Assessing Environmental Health Effects awarded by Environmental Protection Agency 1989 - 1992
  • (92-0087) Development and Use of Statistical and Biological Models in Assessing Environmental Health Effects awarded by Environmental Protection Agency 1989 - 1991
  • (90-0558) Characterization of the Functionally Disabled Elderly Population awarded by National Institutes of Health 1990
  • (89-0752) Trends in Patterns of Post-hospital Service Use and Their Impact on Outcomes 1987 - 1990
  • (87-0158) Patterns of Post Hospital Service Use and Outcomes 1987 - 1990
  • (88-0541) Trends in Patterns of Post-Hospital Service Use and their Impact on Outcomes 1987 - 1990
  • (89-0740) The Characteristics of the Elderly LTC Population and Its Service Use awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1990
  • (87-0093) Life Expectancy in Old and Oldest Populations awarded by National Institutes of Health 1988 - 1989
  • (87-0010) Methods for Ecologiccal Mortality and Morbidity Analysis awarded by Environmental Protection Agency 1984 - 1989
  • (88-0674) Methods for Ecological Mortality and Morbidity Analysis awarded by Environmental Protection Agency 1984 - 1989
  • (89-0093) GOM Analysis of Demographic, Sociological & Economic Characteristics of US Counties 1988
  • (87-0373) A National and Crossnational Study of LTC Populations 1984 - 1988
  • (87-0468) A Demographic Study of Multiple Causes of Death awarded by National Institutes of Health 1980 - 1987
  • (87-0510) An Analysis of Variations in Surgical Mortality in Region 2 1987
• Publications & Artistic Works
• 

  Selected Publications

  • Academic Articles

    • Manton, Kenneth G., Xi-Liang Gu, Arthur Ullian, H Dennis Tolley, Alvin E. Headen, and Gene Lowrimore. “Long-term economic growth stimulus of human capital preservation in the elderly.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, no. 50 (December 2009): 21080–85. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0911626106.
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    • Akushevich, I., M. Kovtun, K. G. Manton, and A. I. Yashin. “Linear latent structure analysis and modelling of multiple categorical variables.” Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine 10, no. 3 (September 21, 2009): 203–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/17486700802259798.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G., Xi-Liang Gu, Gene Lowrimore, Arthur Ullian, and H Dennis Tolley. “NIH funding trajectories and their correlations with US health dynamics from 1950 to 2004.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 106, no. 27 (July 2009): 10981–86. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0905104106.
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    • Mikhal’skiĭ, A. I., Iu A. Rodionov, K. G. Manton, K. Christensen, and A. I. Iashin. “[Investigation of disability prevalence in men and women of advanced age].” Advances in Gerontology = Uspekhi Gerontologii 22, no. 4 (January 2009): 569–87.
    • Manton, Kenneth G., XiLiang Gu, and Gene R. Lowrimore. “Cohort changes in active life expectancy in the U.S. elderly population: experience from the 1982-2004 National Long-Term Care Survey.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series B, Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 63, no. 5 (September 2008): S269–81. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/63.5.s269.
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    • Manton, K. G., I. Akushevich, and A. Kulminski. “Human mortality at extreme ages: Data from the NLTCS and linked medicare records.” Mathematical Population Studies 15, no. 3 (July 1, 2008): 137–59. https://doi.org/10.1080/08898480802221665.
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    • Kulminski, Alexander, Svetlana V. Ukraintseva, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Kenneth G. Manton, Junko Oshima, George M. Martin, and Anatoli I. Yashin. “Association between APOE epsilon 2/epsilon 3/epsilon 4 polymorphism and disability severity in a national long-term care survey sample.” Age and Ageing 37, no. 3 (May 2008): 288–93. https://doi.org/10.1093/ageing/afn003.
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    • Kulminski, Alexander M., Svetlana V. Ukraintseva, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Kenneth G. Manton, Junko Oshima, George M. Martin, Dora Il’yasova, and Anatoli I. Yashin. “Health-protective and adverse effects of the apolipoprotein E epsilon2 allele in older men.” J Am Geriatr Soc 56, no. 3 (March 2008): 478–83. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.2007.01574.x.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G. “Recent declines in chronic disability in the elderly U.S. population: risk factors and future dynamics.” Annual Review of Public Health 29 (January 2008): 91–113. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090812.
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    • Liao, S Matthew, Pascal J. Goldschmidt-Clermont, Jeremy Sugarman, and Jeremy Working Group on Ethics of Progenitor Cell-based Strategies for Disease Prevention. “Ethical and policy issues relating to progenitor-cell-based strategies for prevention of atherosclerosis.” J Med Ethics 33, no. 11 (November 2007): 643–46. https://doi.org/10.1136/jme.2006.017251.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G., Gene R. Lowrimore, Arthur D. Ullian, Xiliang Gu, and H Dennis Tolley. “Labor force participation and human capital increases in an aging population and implications for U.S. research investment.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104, no. 26 (June 15, 2007): 10802–7. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0704185104.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G., Vicki L. Lamb, and XiLiang Gu. “Medicare cost effects of recent U.S. disability trends in the elderly: future implications.” Journal of Aging and Health 19, no. 3 (June 2007): 359–81. https://doi.org/10.1177/0898264307300186.
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    • Akushevich, Igor, Julia S. Kravchenko, and Kenneth G. Manton. “Health-based population forecasting: effects of smoking on mortality and fertility.” Risk Anal 27, no. 2 (April 2007): 467–82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00898.x.
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    • Goldfield, Norbert, Vicki Lamb, Kenneth Manton, and James Vertrees. “Standardize concepts, not tools for quality improvement.” The Journal of Ambulatory Care Management 30, no. 2 (April 2007): 116–19. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.jac.0000264600.12006.70.
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    • Kulminski, A., A. Yashin, K. Arbeev, I. Akushevich, S. Ukraintseva, K. Land, and K. Manton. “Cumulative index of health disorders as an indicator of aging-associated processes in the elderly: results from analyses of the National Long Term Care Survey.” Mechanisms of Ageing and Development 128, no. 3 (March 2007): 250–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mad.2006.12.004.
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    • Shao, Jing, Lishan Chen, Brian Marrs, Lin Lee, Hai Huang, Kenneth G. Manton, George M. Martin, and Junko Oshima. “SOD2 polymorphisms: unmasking the effect of polymorphism on splicing.” Bmc Medical Genetics 8 (March 2007): 7. https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2350-8-7.
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    • Kovtun, M., I. Akushevich, K. G. Manton, and H. D. Tolley. “Linear latent structure analysis: Mixture distribution models with linear constraints.” Statistical Methodology 4, no. 1 (January 1, 2007): 90–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stamet.2006.04.001.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G., XiLiang Gu, and Vicki L. Lamb. “Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the U.S. elderly population.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103, no. 48 (November 13, 2006): 18374–79. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0608483103.
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    • Akushevich, I., K. G. Manton, A. Kulminski, M. Kovtun, J. Kravchenko, and A. Yashin. “Population models for the health effects of ionizing radiation.” Radiats Biol Radioecol 46, no. 6 (November 2006): 663–74.
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    • Kulminski, Alexander, Anatoli Yashin, Svetlana Ukraintseva, Igor Akushevich, Konstantin Arbeev, Kenneth Land, and Kenneth Manton. “Accumulation of health disorders as a systemic measure of aging: Findings from the NLTCS data.” Mechanisms of Ageing and Development 127, no. 11 (November 2006): 840–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mad.2006.08.005.
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    • Manton, K. G., A. Kulminski, I. Akushevich, and J. Kravchenko. “Modeling the effects of biologically incorporated radionuclides and chronic low-dose ionizing radiation exposure on both cancer and chronic non-cancer diseases.” Radiats Biol Radioecol 46, no. 6 (November 2006): 675–86.
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    • Ivanov, V. K., M. A. Maksioutov, S Yu Chekin, A. V. Petrov, A. P. Biryukov, Z. G. Kruglova, V. A. Matyash, A. F. Tsyb, K. G. Manton, and J. S. Kravchenko. “The risk of radiation-induced cerebrovascular disease in Chernobyl emergency workers.” Health Phys 90, no. 3 (March 2006): 199–207. https://doi.org/10.1097/01.HP.0000175835.31663.ea.
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    • Manton, K. G., X. Gu, and V. L. Lamb. “Long-term trends in life expectancy and active life expectancy in the United States.” Population and Development Review 32, no. 1 (March 1, 2006): 81–105. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2006.00106.x.
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    • Kravchenko, Julia, Pascal J. Goldschmidt-Clermont, Tiffany Powell, Eric Stallard, Igor Akushevich, Michael S. Cuffe, and Kenneth G. Manton. “Endothelial progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis: the philosopher's stone for an aging population?” Sci Aging Knowledge Environ 2005, no. 25 (June 22, 2005): pe18. https://doi.org/10.1126/sageke.2005.25.pe18.
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    • Ivanov, V. K., K. G. Manton, I. Akushevich, A. I. Gorski, A. M. Korelo, J. S. Kravchenko, M. A. Maksioutov, and A. F. Tsyb. “Risk of thyroid cancer after irradiation in children and adults.” Current Oncology 12, no. 2 (June 1, 2005): 55–64.
    • Huang, Hai, and Kenneth G. Manton. “Newborn screening for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID): a review.” Frontiers in Bioscience : A Journal and Virtual Library 10 (May 2005): 1024–39. https://doi.org/10.2741/1596.
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    • Akushevich, I., A. Kulminski, and K. G. Manton. “Life tables with covariates: Dynamic model for nonlinear analysis of longitudinal data.” Mathematical Population Studies 12, no. 2 (April 1, 2005): 51–80. https://doi.org/10.1080/08898480590932296.
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    • Golubovsky, Michael, and Kenneth G. Manton. “Genome organization and three kinds of heritable changes: general description and stochastic factors (a review).” Frontiers in Bioscience : A Journal and Virtual Library 10 (January 2005): 335–44. https://doi.org/10.2741/1531.
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    • Golubovsky, Michael, and Kenneth G. Manton. “A three-generation approach in biodemography is based on the developmental profiles and the epigenetics of female gametes.” Frontiers in Bioscience : A Journal and Virtual Library 10 (January 2005): 187–91. https://doi.org/10.2741/1520.
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    • Huang, Hai, Dhavalkumar D. Patel, and Kenneth G. Manton. “The immune system in aging: roles of cytokines, T cells and NK cells.” Frontiers in Bioscience : A Journal and Virtual Library 10 (January 2005): 192–215. https://doi.org/10.2741/1521.
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    • Loganovsky, Konstantin N., Sergij V. Volovik, Kenneth G. Manton, Dimitry A. Bazyka, and Pierre Flor-Henry. “Whether ionizing radiation is a risk factor for schizophrenia spectrum disorders?” The World Journal of Biological Psychiatry : The Official Journal of the World Federation of Societies of Biological Psychiatry 6, no. 4 (January 2005): 212–30. https://doi.org/10.1080/15622970510029876.
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    • Manton, K. C., X. L. Gu, and S. V. Ukraintseva. “Declining prevalence of dementia in the U.S. elderly population.” Advances in Gerontology = Uspekhi Gerontologii 16 (January 2005): 30–37.
    • Kulminski, A., K. Manton, I. Akushevich, and A. Yashin. “The effect of the organisms' body size and energy reserves in models for population dynamics.” Journal of Biological Systems 12, no. 4 (December 1, 2004): 419–37. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0218339004001336.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G., Serge Volovik, and Alexander Kulminski. “ROS effects on neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's disease and related disorders: on environmental stresses of ionizing radiation.” Current Alzheimer Research 1, no. 4 (November 2004): 277–93. https://doi.org/10.2174/1567205043332036.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G., Xiliang Gu, Hai Huang, and Mikhail Kovtun. “Fuzzy set analyses of genetic determinants of health and disability status.” Statistical Methods in Medical Research 13, no. 5 (October 2004): 395–408. https://doi.org/10.1191/0962280204sm374ra.
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    • Anisimov, Vladimir N., Dmitri A. Baturin, Irina G. Popovich, Mark A. Zabezhinski, Kenneth G. Manton, Anna V. Semenchenko, and Anatoly I. Yashin. “Effect of exposure to light-at-night on life span and spontaneous carcinogenesis in female CBA mice.” International Journal of Cancer 111, no. 4 (September 2004): 475–79. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.20298.
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    • Manton, K. G., I. Akushevich, and A. Kulminski. “Demographic analysis and modeling of human populations exposed to ionizing radiation.” Frontiers in Bioscience : A Journal and Virtual Library 9 (September 2004): 2144–52. https://doi.org/10.2741/1374.
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    • Freedman, Vicki A., Eileen Crimmins, Robert F. Schoeni, Brenda C. Spillman, Hakan Aykan, Ellen Kramarow, Kenneth Land, et al. “Resolving inconsistencies in trends in old-age disability: report from a technical working group.” Demography 41, no. 3 (August 2004): 417–41. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2004.0022.
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    • Huang, Hai, and Kenneth G. Manton. “The role of oxidative damage in mitochondria during aging: a review.” Frontiers in Bioscience : A Journal and Virtual Library 9 (May 2004): 1100–1117. https://doi.org/10.2741/1298.
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    • Arbeev, Konstantin G., Alexander A. Butov, Kenneth G. Manton, Igor A. Sannikov, and Anatoli I. Yashin. “Disability trends in gender and race groups of early retirement ages in the USA.” Sozial  Und Praventivmedizin 49, no. 2 (January 2004): 142–51. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00038-004-3041-y.
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    • Headen, A. E., K. G. Manton, and M. A. Woodbury. “Co-morbidity and black and white disparities in health and functional status.” Review of Black Political Economy 31, no. 4 (January 1, 2004): 9–33.
    • Kulminski, A., I. Akushevich, and K. Manton. “Modeling nonlinear effects in longitudinal survival data: implications for the physiological dynamics of biological systems.” Frontiers in Bioscience : A Journal and Virtual Library 9 (January 2004): 481–93. https://doi.org/10.2741/1221.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G. “Better health, lower spending.” Health Affairs (Project Hope) 23, no. 1 (January 2004): 273–74. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.23.1.273-a.
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    • Anisimov, Vladimir N., Irina N. Alimova, Dmitri A. Baturin, Irina G. Popovich, Mark A. Zabezhinski, Svetlana V. Rosenfeld, Kenneth G. Manton, Anna V. Semenchenko, and Anatoli I. Yashin. “Dose-dependent effect of melatonin on life span and spontaneous tumor incidence in female SHR mice.” Experimental Gerontology 38, no. 4 (April 2003): 449–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0531-5565(02)00240-1.
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    • Anisimov, Vladimir N., Irina N. Alimova, Dmitri A. Baturin, Irina G. Popovich, Mark A. Zabezhinski, Kenneth G. Manton, Anna V. Semenchenko, and Anatoly I. Yashin. “The effect of melatonin treatment regimen on mammary adenocarcinoma development in HER-2/neu transgenic mice.” International Journal of Cancer 103, no. 3 (January 2003): 300–305. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.10827.
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    • Manton, Kenneth G. “Forecasting the nursing home population.” Medical Care 41, no. 1 (January 2003): 21–24. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-200301000-00004.
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    • Corder, E. H., M. A. Woodbury, K. G. Manton, and L. L. Field. “Grade-of-membership sibpair linkage analysis maps IDDM11 to chromosome 14q24.3-q31.” Annals of Human Genetics 65, no. Pt 4 (July 2001): 387–94. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1469-1809.2001.6540387.x.
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    • Manton, K. G., and X. Gu. “Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 98, no. 11 (May 8, 2001): 6354–59. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.111152298.
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    • Manton, K. G., and K. C. Land. “Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: a multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed cohorts, 1982-1996.” Demography 37, no. 3 (August 2000): 253–65. https://doi.org/10.2307/2648040.
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    • Manton, KG, and Land, KC. "Multidimensional disability/mortality trajectories at ages 65 and over: The impact of state dependence." SOCIAL INDICATORS RESEARCH 51, no. 2 (August 2000): 193-221.  Full Text  Link to Item
    • Liu, K., K. G. Manton, and C. Aragon. “Changes in home care use by disabled elderly persons: 1982-1994.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series B, Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 55, no. 4 (July 2000): S245–53. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/55.4.s245.
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    • Corder, E. H., H. Basun, L. Fratiglioni, Z. Guo, L. Lannfelt, M. Viitanen, L. S. Corder, K. G. Manton, and B. Winblad. “Inherited frailty. ApoE alleles determine survival after a diagnosis of heart disease or stroke at ages 85+.” Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 908 (June 2000): 295–98. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2000.tb06657.x.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Gender differences in the cross-sectional and cohort age dependence of cause-specific mortality: the United States, 1962 to 1995.” The Journal of Gender Specific Medicine : Jgsm : The Official Journal of the Partnership for Women’S Health at Columbia 3, no. 4 (May 2000): 47–54.
    • Manton, K. “Mortality oscillations induced by periodic starvation alter sex-mortality differentials in Mediterranean fruit flies.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 55, no. 1 (January 2000): B54–55. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/55.1.b54.
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    • Potthoff, R. F., K. G. Manton, and M. A. Woodbury. “Dirichlet generalizations of latent-class models.” Journal of Classification 17, no. 2 (January 1, 2000): 315–53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003570000024.
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    • Zuev, S. M., A. I. Yashin, K. G. Manton, E. Dowd, I. B. Pogojev, and R. N. Usmanov. “Vitality index in survival modeling: how physiological aging influences mortality.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 55, no. 1 (January 2000): B10–19. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/55.1.b10.
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    • Manton, K. G., and K. C. Land. ““critique of mexico’s new social security act”, octavio maupomé-carvantes, july, 1999.” North American Actuarial Journal 3, no. 3 (July 1, 1999): 101–2. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.1999.10595834.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Dynamic paradigms for human mortality and aging.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 54, no. 6 (June 1999): B247–54. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/54.6.b247.
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    • Andreopoulos, S. “Health care costs.” Science (New York, N.Y.) 283, no. 5403 (February 1999): 792–94. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.283.5403.791d.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Dowd. “Models for forecasting chronic disease processes in adult and elderly populations: effects of stochasticity.” Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics 4, no. 1 (January 1999): 11–18.
    • Pardes, H., K. G. Manton, E. S. Lander, H. D. Tolley, A. D. Ullian, and H. Palmer. “Effects of medical research on health care and economy.” Science (New York, N.Y.) 283, no. 5398 (January 1999): 36–37. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.283.5398.36.
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    • Singer, B. H., and K. G. Manton. “The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 95, no. 26 (December 1998): 15618–22. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.95.26.15618.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Forecasting methods for HIV/AIDS and aging.” Research on Aging 20, no. 6 (November 1, 1998): 846–64. https://doi.org/10.1177/0164027598206011.
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    • Vaupel, J. W., J. R. Carey, K. Christensen, T. E. Johnson, A. I. Yashin, N. V. Holm, I. A. Iachine, et al. “Biodemographic trajectories of longevity.” Science 280, no. 5365 (May 8, 1998): 855–60. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.280.5365.855.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. Corder. “Economic Effects of Reducing Disability.” American Economic Review 88, no. 2 (May 1, 1998): 101–5.
    • Manton, K. G. ““Social security: Regressive or progressive?”, Robert L. Brown, April 1998.” North American Actuarial Journal 2, no. 2 (April 1, 1998): 27–28. https://doi.org/10.1080/10920277.1998.10595690.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. S. Corder. “The dynamics of dimensions of age-related disability 1982 to 1994 in the U.S. elderly population.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 53, no. 1 (January 1998): B59–70. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/53a.1.b59.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. Corder. “Education-specific estimates of life expectancy and age-specific disability in the U.S. elderly population: 1982 to 1991.” Journal of Aging and Health 9, no. 4 (November 1997): 419–50. https://doi.org/10.1177/089826439700900401.
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    • Manton, K. G., L. S. Corder, and E. Stallard. “Monitoring changes in the health of the U.S. elderly population: correlates with biomedical research and clinical innovations.” Faseb Journal : Official Publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology 11, no. 12 (October 1997): 923–30. https://doi.org/10.1096/fasebj.11.12.9337144.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Future trends in chronic disability and institutionalization: implications for long-term care needs.” Health Care Management (Philadelphia, Pa.) 3, no. 1 (June 1997): 177–91.
    • Manton, K. G., G. Lowrimore, A. Yashin, and H. D. Tolley. “Analyses of cohort mortality incorporating observed and unobserved risk factors.” Mathematical and Computer Modelling 25, no. 7 (April 1, 1997): 89–107. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0895-7177(97)00051-4.
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    • Manton, K. G., L. Corder, and E. Stallard. “Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations: 1982-1994.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 94, no. 6 (March 1997): 2593–98. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.94.6.2593.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. Corder. “Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: cohort and other determinants.” Demography 34, no. 1 (February 1997): 135–57. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061664.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Demographic trends for the aging female population.” Journal of the American Medical Women’S Association (1972) 52, no. 3 (January 1997): 99–105.
    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and H. D. Tolley. “Convex models of high dimensional discrete data.” Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 49, no. 2 (January 1, 1997): 371–93. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1003175232300.
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    • Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and G. R. Lowrimore. “Evaluating partially observed survival histories: Retrospective projection of covariate trajectories.” Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis 13, no. 1 (January 1, 1997): 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-0747(199703)13:1<1::AID-ASM289>3.0.CO;2-E.
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    • Yashin, A. I., and K. G. Manton. “Effects of unobserved and partially observed covariate processes on system failure: A review of models and estimation strategies.” Statistical Science 12, no. 1 (January 1, 1997): 20–34. https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1029963259.
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    • Corder, L. S., and K. G. Manton. “Recent nursing home data: A multivariate analysis of two-repeated cross-sectional surveys of the institutionalized aged.” Journal of Economic and Social Measurement 22, no. 2 (December 1, 1996): 141–60.
    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Longevity in the united states: age and sex-specific evidence on life span limits from mortality patterns 1960-1990.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 51, no. 5 (September 1996): B362–75. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/51a.5.b362.
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    • Basun, H., E. H. Corder, Z. Guo, L. Lannfelt, L. S. Corder, K. G. Manton, B. Winblad, and M. Viitanen. “Apolipoprotein E polymorphism and stroke in a population sample aged 75 years or more.” Stroke 27, no. 8 (August 1996): 1310–15. https://doi.org/10.1161/01.str.27.8.1310.
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    • Corder, E. H., L. Lannfelt, M. Viitanen, L. S. Corder, K. G. Manton, B. Winblad, and H. Basun. “Apolipoprotein E genotype determines survival in the oldest old (85 years or older) who have good cognition.” Archives of Neurology 53, no. 5 (May 1996): 418–22. https://doi.org/10.1001/archneur.1996.00550050048022.
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    • Manton, K. G., R. Newcomer, G. R. Lowrimore, and J. C. Vertrees. “Prior and current costs in capitated health plans: the effects of health status at enrollment.” Journal of Aging and Health 8, no. 2 (May 1996): 183–206. https://doi.org/10.1177/089826439600800202.
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    • Corder, L. S., M. A. Woodbury, and K. G. Manton. “Proxy response patterns among the aged: effects on estimates of health status and medical care utilization from the 1982-1984 long-term care surveys.” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 49, no. 2 (February 1996): 173–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/0895-4356(95)00507-2.
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    • Preston, S. H., and I. T. Elo. “Survival after age 80.” The New England Journal of Medicine 334, no. 8 (February 1996): 537. https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm199602223340814.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs.” Journal of Aging & Social Policy 7, no. 3–4 (January 1996): 25–52. https://doi.org/10.1300/j031v07n03_03.
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    • Manton, K. G., R. Newcomer, G. R. Lowrimore, J. C. Vertrees, and C. Harrington. “Evaluating long-term care demonstrations in real time with study design and plan performance interactions.” Medical Care 33, no. 12 (December 1995): 1210–27. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-199512000-00004.
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    • Manton, K. G., and J. W. Vaupel. “Survival after the age of 80 in the United States, Sweden, France, England, and Japan.” The New England Journal of Medicine 333, no. 18 (November 1995): 1232–35. https://doi.org/10.1056/nejm199511023331824.
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    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Sex differences in human mortality and aging at late ages: the effect of mortality selection and state dynamics.” The Gerontologist 35, no. 5 (October 1995): 597–608. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/35.5.597.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. S. Cornelius, and M. A. Woodbury. “Nursing home residents: a multivariate analysis of their medical, behavioral, psychosocial, and service use characteristics.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 50, no. 5 (September 1995): M242–51. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/50a.5.m242.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and L. Corder. “Changes in morbidity and chronic disability in the U.S. elderly population: evidence from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series B, Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences 50, no. 4 (July 1995): S194–204. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronb/50b.4.s194.
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    • Newcomer, R. J., C. Harrington, K. G. Manton, and M. Lynch. “A response to representatives from the social HMOs regarding program evaluation.” The Gerontologist 35, no. 3 (June 1995): 292–93. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/35.3.292.
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    • Newcomer, R., K. Manton, C. Harrington, C. Yordi, and J. Vertrees. “Case mix controlled service use and expenditures in the social/health maintenance organization demonstration.” The Journals of Gerontology. Series A, Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences 50A, no. 1 (January 1995): M35–44. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/50a.1.m35.
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    • Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “The effects of health histories on stochastic process models of aging and mortality.” Journal of Mathematical Biology 34, no. 1 (January 1995): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00180134.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, M. A. Woodbury, and J. E. Dowd. “Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging: multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz.” Journal of Gerontology 49, no. 4 (July 1994): B169–90. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/49.4.b169.
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    • Manton, K. G., R. Newcomer, J. C. Vertrees, G. R. Lowrimore, and C. Harrington. “A method for adjusting capitation payments to managed care plans using multivariate patterns of health and functioning: the experience of Social/Health Maintenance Organizations.” Medical Care 32, no. 3 (March 1994): 277–97. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-199403000-00007.
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    • Manton, K. G., A. Korten, M. A. Woodbury, M. Anker, and A. Jablensky. “Symptom profiles of psychiatric disorders based on graded disease classes: an illustration using data from the WHO International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia.” Psychological Medicine 24, no. 1 (February 1994): 133–44. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0033291700026908.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and M. A. Woodbury. “Home health and skilled nursing facility use: 1982-90.” Health Care Financing Review 16, no. 1 (January 1994): 155–86.
    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and H. D. Tolley. “A general model for statistical analysis using fuzzy sets: Sufficient conditions for identifiability and statistical properties.” Information Sciences  Applications 1, no. 3 (January 1, 1994): 149–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/1069-0115(94)90007-8.
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    • Yashin, A. I., and K. G. Manton. “Modifications of the EM algorithm for survival influenced by an unobserved stochastic process.” Stochastic Processes and Their Applications 54, no. 2 (January 1, 1994): 257–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4149(94)00012-3.
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    • Manton, K. G., J. C. Vertrees, and R. F. Clark. “A multivariate analysis of disability and health, and its change over time in the National Channeling Demonstration data.” The Gerontologist 33, no. 5 (October 1993): 610–18. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/33.5.610.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and K. Liu. “Forecasts of active life expectancy: policy and fiscal implications.” Journal of Gerontology 48 Spec No (September 1993): 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/48.special_issue.11.
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    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, J. C. Vertrees, and E. Stallard. “Use of Medicare services before and after introduction of the prospective payment system.” Health Services Research 28, no. 3 (August 1993): 269–92.
    • Manton, K. G., L. S. Corder, and E. Stallard. “Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence and prevalence rates in the U.S. elderly population from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey.” Journal of Gerontology 48, no. 4 (July 1993): S153–66. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/48.4.s153.
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    • Liu, K., M. Perozek, and K. Manton. “Catastrophic acute and long-term care costs: risks faced by disabled elderly persons.” The Gerontologist 33, no. 3 (June 1993): 299–307. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/33.3.299.
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    • Manton, K. G., L. Corder, and E. Stallard. “Changes in the use of personal assistance and special equipment from 1982 to 1989: results from the 1982 and 1989 NLTCS.” The Gerontologist 33, no. 2 (April 1993): 168–76. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/33.2.168.
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    • Manton, K. G., G. Lowrimore, and A. Yashin. “Methods for combining ancillary data in stochastic compartment models of cancer mortality: generalization of heterogeneity models.” Mathematical Population Studies 4, no. 2 (January 1993): 133–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/08898489309525365.
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    • Manton, K. G., R. Newcomer, G. R. Lowrimore, J. C. Vertrees, and C. Harrington. “Social/health maintenance organization and fee-for-service health outcomes over time.” Health Care Financing Review 15, no. 2 (January 1993): 173–202.
    • Potthoff, R. F., K. G. Manton, and M. A. Woodbury. “Correcting for nonavailability bias in surveys by weighting based on number of callbacks.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, no. 424 (January 1, 1993): 1197–1207. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1993.10476399.
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    • Potthoff, R. F., M. A. Woodbury, and K. G. Manton. “Reply to Kott’s letter.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 88, no. 422 (January 1, 1993): 716–17. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1993.10476329.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and B. Singer. “Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population.” International Journal of Forecasting 8, no. 3 (November 1992): 433–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(92)90057-g.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Demographics (1950-1987) of breast cancer in birth cohorts of older women.” Journal of Gerontology 47 Spec No (November 1992): 32–42.
    • Dowd, J. E., and K. G. Manton. “Projections of disability consequences in Indonesia.” Journal of Cross Cultural Gerontology 7, no. 3 (July 1992): 237–58. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00122511.
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    • Manton, K. G. “The dynamics of aging: Measurement and intervention issues for health and function.” Journal of Cross Cultural Gerontology 7, no. 2 (April 1992): 185–201. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00115944.
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    • Pekkanen, J., K. G. Manton, E. Stallard, A. Nissinen, and M. J. Karvonen. “Risk factor dynamics, mortality and life expectancy differences between eastern and western Finland: the Finnish Cohorts of the Seven Countries Study.” International Journal of Epidemiology 21, no. 2 (April 1992): 406–19. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/21.2.406.
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    • Tolley, H. D., and K. G. Manton. “Large sample properties of estimates of a discrete grade of membership model.” Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 44, no. 1 (March 1, 1992): 85–95. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00048671.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Forecasting health: data needs and implications for model structure.” World Health Statistics Quarterly. Rapport Trimestriel De Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales 45, no. 1 (January 1992): 80–88.
    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Analysis of underwriting factors for AAPCC (adjusted average per capita cost).” Health Care Financing Review 14, no. 1 (January 1992): 117–32.
    • Potthoff, R. F., M. A. Woodbury, and K. G. Manton. “Equivalent sample size and “equivalent degrees of freedom” refinements for inference using survey weights under superpopulation models.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 87, no. 418 (January 1, 1992): 383–96. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1992.10475218.
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    • Riggan, W. B., K. G. Manton, J. P. Creason, M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations.” Environmental Health Perspectives 96 (December 1991): 223–38. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.9196223.
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    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Statistical and measurement issues in assessing the welfare status of aged individuals and populations.” Journal of Econometrics 50, no. 1–2 (October 11, 1991): 151–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(91)90094-T.
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    • Taylor, J. O., J. Cornoni-Huntley, J. D. Curb, K. G. Manton, A. M. Ostfeld, P. Scherr, and R. B. Wallace. “Blood pressure and mortality risk in the elderly.” American Journal of Epidemiology 134, no. 5 (September 1991): 489–501. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a116121.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and S. Wing. “Analyses of black and white differentials in the age trajectory of mortality in two closed cohort studies.” Statistics in Medicine 10, no. 7 (July 1991): 1043–59. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780100705.
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    • Manton, K. G., J. M. Wrigley, H. J. Cohen, and M. A. Woodbury. “Cancer mortality, aging, and patterns of comorbidity in the United States: 1968 to 1986.” J Gerontol 46, no. 4 (July 1991): S225–34. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/46.4.s225.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Cross-sectional estimates of active life expectancy for the U.S. elderly and oldest-old populations.” Journal of Gerontology 46, no. 3 (May 1991): S170–82. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/46.3.s170.
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    • Manton, K. G., and H. D. Tolley. “Rectangularization of the survival curve: implications of an ill-posed question.” Journal of Aging and Health 3, no. 2 (May 1991): 172–93. https://doi.org/10.1177/089826439100300204.
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    • Liu, K., and K. Manton. “Nursing home length of stay and spenddown in Connecticut, 1977-1986.” The Gerontologist 31, no. 2 (April 1991): 165–73. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/31.2.165.
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    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, J. M. Wrigley, and H. J. Cohen. “Multivariate procedures to describe clinical staging of melanoma.” Methods Inf Med 30, no. 2 (April 1991): 111–16.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., and K. G. Manton. “Empirical Bayes Approaches to Multivariate Fuzzy Partitions.” Multivariate Behavioral Research 26, no. 2 (April 1991): 291–321. https://doi.org/10.1207/s15327906mbr2602_6.
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    • Corder, L. S., and K. G. Manton. “National surveys and the health and functioning of the elderly: The effects of design and content.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 86, no. 414 (January 1, 1991): 513–25. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1991.10475075.
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    • Manton, K. G. “The dynamics of population aging: demography and policy analysis.” The Milbank Quarterly 69, no. 2 (January 1991): 309–38. https://doi.org/10.2307/3350207.
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    • Manton, K. G., and M. A. Woodbury. “Grade of Membership generalizations and aging research.” Experimental Aging Research 17, no. 4 (January 1991): 217–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610739108253899.
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    • Dowd, J. E., and K. G. Manton. “Forecasting chronic disease risks in developing countries.” International Journal of Epidemiology 19, no. 4 (December 1990): 1019–36. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/19.4.1019.
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    • Manton, K. G., J. C. Vertrees, and J. M. Wrigley. “Changes in health service use and mortality among U.S. elderly in 1980-1986.” Journal of Aging and Health 2, no. 2 (May 1990): 131–56. https://doi.org/10.1177/089826439000200201.
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    • Liu, K., P. Doty, and K. Manton. “Medicaid spenddown in nursing homes.” The Gerontologist 30, no. 1 (February 1990): 7–15. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/30.1.7.
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    • Liu, K., K. G. Manton, and B. M. Liu. “Morbidity, disability, and long-term care of the elderly: implications for insurance financing.” The Milbank Quarterly 68, no. 3 (January 1990): 445–92. https://doi.org/10.2307/3350113.
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    • Manton, K. G., J. C. Vertrees, and M. A. Woodbury. “Functionally and medically defined subgroups of nursing home populations.” Health Care Financing Review 12, no. 1 (January 1990): 47–62.
    • Manton, K. G., and K. Liu. “Recent changes in service use patterns of disabled Medicare beneficiaries.” Health Care Financing Review 11, no. 3 (January 1990): 51–66.
    • Berkman, L., B. Singer, and K. Manton. “Black/white differences in health status and mortality among the elderly.” Demography 26, no. 4 (November 1989): 661–78. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061264.
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    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, E. Stallard, W. B. Riggan, J. P. Creason, and A. C. Pellom. “Empirical Bayes procedures for stabilizing maps of U.S. cancer mortality rates.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 84, no. 407 (September 1989): 637–50. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1989.10478816.
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    • Vertrees, J. C., K. G. Manton, and K. C. Mitchell. “Case-mix adjusted analyses of service utilization for a Medicaid health insuring organization in Philadelphia.” Medical Care 27, no. 4 (April 1989): 397–411. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-198904000-00007.
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    • Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.” Theoretical Population Biology 35, no. 2 (April 1989): 119–41. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(89)90013-0.
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    • Manton, K. G., H. D. Tolley, and J. C. Vertrees. “Controlling risk in capitation payment. Multivariate definitions of risk groups.” Medical Care 27, no. 3 (March 1989): 259–72. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-198903000-00004.
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    • Liu, K., and K. G. Manton. “The effect of nursing home use on Medicaid eligibility.” The Gerontologist 29, no. 1 (February 1989): 59–66. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/29.1.59.
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    • Blazer, D., M. Woodbury, D. C. Hughes, L. K. George, K. G. Manton, J. R. Bachar, and N. Fowler. “A statistical analysis of the classification of depression in a mixed community and clinical sample.” J Affect Disord 16, no. 1 (January 1989): 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-0327(89)90049-9.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Life-Style Risk Factors.” The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 503, no. 1 (January 1, 1989): 72–88. https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716289503001006.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Epidemiological, demographic, and social correlates of disability among the elderly.” The Milbank Quarterly 67 Suppl 2 Pt 1 (January 1989): 13–58. https://doi.org/10.2307/3350235.
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    • Vertrees, J. C., K. G. Manton, and G. S. Adler. “Cost effectiveness of home and community-based care.” Health Care Financing Review 10, no. 4 (January 1989): 65–78.
    • Woodbury, M. A., and K. G. Manton. “Grade of Membership Analysis of Depression-Related Psychiatric Disorders.” Sociological Methods &Amp; Research 18, no. 1 (January 1, 1989): 126–63. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124189018001005.
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    • Blazer, D., M. Swartz, M. Woodbury, K. G. Manton, D. Hughes, and L. K. George. “Depressive symptoms and depressive diagnoses in a community population. Use of a new procedure for analysis of psychiatric classification.” Arch Gen Psychiatry 45, no. 12 (December 1988): 1078–84. https://doi.org/10.1001/archpsyc.1988.01800360026004.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Measurements of health and disease, a transitional perspective.” Vital and Health Statistics. Ser. 4, Documents and Committee Reports, no. 25 (December 1988): 3–38.
    • Manton, K. G. “A longitudinal study of functional change and mortality in the United States.” Journal of Gerontology 43, no. 5 (September 1988): S153–61. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/43.5.s153.
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    • Wolf, H. K., P. M. Rautaharju, K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Importance of electrocardiography for coronary risk factor surveys.” Lancet (London, England) 2, no. 8611 (September 1988): 633–34. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(88)90675-7.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and D. Blazer. “Trends in US suicide mortality rates 1968 to 1982: race and sex differences in age, period and cohort components.” Int J Epidemiol 17, no. 2 (June 1988): 356–62. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/17.2.356.
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    • Habib, J., K. Manton, D. Danon, J. E. Dowd, D. Galinsky, M. G. Kovar, S. J. Olshansky, and R. Suzman. “Workshop: Forecasting the care needs of the elderly: Methodology and limitations.” Public Health Reports 103, no. 5 (January 1, 1988): 541–43.
    • Jackson, D. J., M. A. Woodbury, and K. G. Manton. “Classification Model.” Bulletin De M�Thodologie Sociologique 19, no. 1 (January 1, 1988): 22–52. https://doi.org/10.1177/075910638801900104.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Planning long-term care for heterogeneous older populations.” Annual Review of Gerontology & Geriatrics 8 (January 1988): 217–55.
    • Manton, K. G. “The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections.” World Health Statistics Quarterly. Rapport Trimestriel De Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales 41, no. 3–4 (January 1988): 255–66.
    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Commentary. Response to Dr Halperin on ‘models of the interaction of mortality and the evolution of risk factor distribution: A general stochastic process formulation’.” Statistics in Medicine 7, no. 1–2 (January 1, 1988): 293–95. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780070129.
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    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Models of the interaction of mortality and the evolution of risk factor distribution: a general stochastic process formulation.” Statistics in Medicine 7, no. 1–2 (January 1988): 239–56. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780070125.
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    • Pratt, J. A., R. Velez, J. D. Brender, and K. G. Manton. “Racial differences in acute lymphocytic leukemia mortality and incidence trends.” Journal of Clinical Epidemiology 41, no. 4 (January 1988): 367–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0895-4356(88)90144-8.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and A. I. Yashin. “Estimating hidden morbidity via its effect on mortality and disability.” Statistics in Medicine 7, no. 1–2 (January 1988): 325–36. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780070133.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Forecasting health status changes in an aging U.S. population: Assessment of the current status and some proposals.” Climatic Change 11, no. 1–2 (August 1, 1987): 179–210. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138800.
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    • Baum, H. M., and K. G. Manton. “National trends in stroke-related mortality: a comparison of multiple cause mortality data with survey and other health data.” The Gerontologist 27, no. 3 (June 1987): 293–300. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/27.3.293.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, M. A. Woodbury, W. B. Riggan, J. P. Creason, and T. J. Mason. “Statistically adjusted estimates of geographic mortality profiles.” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 78, no. 5 (May 1987): 805–15.
    • Manton, K. G., G. C. Myers, and G. R. Andrews. “Morbidity and disability patterns in four developing nations: Their implications for social and economic integration of the elderly.” Journal of Cross Cultural Gerontology 2, no. 2 (April 1987): 115–29. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00116667.
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    • Manton, K. G., D. G. Blazer, and M. A. Woodbury. “Suicide in middle age and later life: sex and race specific life table and cohort analyses.” J Gerontol 42, no. 2 (March 1987): 219–27. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/42.2.219.
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    • Manton, K. G. “The linkage of health status changes and disability.” Comprehensive Gerontology. Section A, Clinical and Laboratory Sciences 1, no. 1 (February 1987): 16–24.
    • Cohen, H. J., E. Cox, K. Manton, and M. Woodbury. “Malignant melanoma in the elderly.” J Clin Oncol 5, no. 1 (January 1987): 100–106. https://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.1987.5.1.100.
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    • Manton, K. G., C. H. Patrick, and K. W. Johnson. “Health differentials between blacks and whites: recent trends in mortality and morbidity.” The Milbank Quarterly 65 Suppl 1 (January 1987): 129–99. https://doi.org/10.2307/3349954.
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    • Manton, K. G., and G. C. Myers. “Recent trends in multiple-caused mortality 1968 to 1982: Age and cohort components.” Population Research and Policy Review 6, no. 2 (January 1, 1987): 161–76. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00149207.
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    • Manton, K. G., and T. Hausner. “A multidimensional approach to case mix for home health services.” Health Care Financing Review 8, no. 4 (January 1987): 37–54.
    • Swartz, M. S., D. G. Blazer, M. A. Woodbury, L. K. George, and K. G. Manton. “A study of somatization disorder in a community population utilizing grade of membership analysis.” Psychiatr Dev 5, no. 3 (1987): 219–37.
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    • Vaupel, J. W., A. I. Yashin, and K. G. Manton. “Debilitation's aftermath: stochastic process models of mortality.” Mathematical Population Studies 1, no. 1 (January 1987): 21–48. https://doi.org/10.1080/08898488809525259.
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    • Manton, K. G., J. E. Dowd, and M. A. Woodbury. “Conceptual and measurement issues in assessing disability cross-nationally: Analysis of a WHO-sponsored survey of the disablement process in Indonesia.” Journal of Cross Cultural Gerontology 1, no. 4 (December 1986): 339–62. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00118731.
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    • Allen, C., E. B. Cox, K. G. Manton, and H. J. Cohen. “Breast cancer in the elderly. Current patterns of care.” J Am Geriatr Soc 34, no. 9 (September 1986): 637–42. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1986.tb04904.x.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Past and future life expectancy increases at later ages: their implications for the linkage of chronic morbidity, disability, and mortality.” Journal of Gerontology 41, no. 5 (September 1986): 672–81. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/41.5.672.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and J. W. Vaupel. “Alternative models for the heterogeneity of mortality risks among the aged.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 81, no. 395 (September 1986): 635–44. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1986.10478316.
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    • Manton, K. G., H. Malker, and B. Malker. “Comparison of temporal changes in U.S. and Swedish lung cancer, 1950-51 to 1981-82.” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 77, no. 3 (September 1986): 665–75. https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/77.3.665.
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    • Blazer, D. G., J. R. Bachar, and K. G. Manton. “Suicide in late life. Review and commentary.” J Am Geriatr Soc 34, no. 7 (July 1986): 519–25. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1532-5415.1986.tb04244.x.
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    • Manton, K. G., I. C. Siegler, and M. A. Woodbury. “Patterns of intellectual development in later life.” J Gerontol 41, no. 4 (July 1986): 486–99. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/41.4.486.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, J. P. Creason, W. B. Riggan, and M. A. Woodbury. “Compartment model approaches for estimating the parameters of a chronic disease process under changing risk factor exposures.” Computers and Biomedical Research, an International Journal 19, no. 2 (April 1986): 151–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4809(86)90013-3.
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    • Vertrees, J. C., and K. G. Manton. “A multivariate approach for classifying hospitals and computing blended payment rates.” Medical Care 24, no. 4 (April 1986): 283–300. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-198604000-00001.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Cause specific mortality patterns among the oldest old: multiple cause of death trends 1968 to 1980.” Journal of Gerontology 41, no. 2 (March 1986): 282–89. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/41.2.282.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, M. A. Woodbury, and A. I. Yashin. “Applications of the grade of membership technique to event history analysis: Extensions to multivariate unobserved heterogeneity.” Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 9–12 (January 1, 1986): 1375–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(86)90087-4.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and M. A. Woodbury. “Chronic disease evolution and human aging: A general model for assessing the impact of chronic disease in human populations.” Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 5–8 (January 1, 1986): 1155–71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(86)90155-7.
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    • Vertrees, J., and K. G. Manton. “The complexity of chronic disease at later ages: practical implications for prospective payment and data collection.” Inquiry : A Journal of Medical Care Organization, Provision and Financing 23, no. 2 (January 1986): 154–65.
    • Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Evaluating the effects of observed and unobserved diffusion processes in survival analysis of longitudinal data.” Mathematical Modelling 7, no. 9–12 (January 1, 1986): 1353–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/0270-0255(86)90085-0.
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    • Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model.” Journal of Mathematical Biology 24, no. 2 (January 1986): 119–40. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00275995.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Future patterns of chronic disease incidence, disability, and mortality among the elderly. Implications for the demand for acute and long-term health care.” New York State Journal of Medicine 85, no. 11 (November 1985): 623–33.
    • Blazer, D., L. K. George, R. Landerman, M. Pennybacker, M. L. Melville, M. Woodbury, K. G. Manton, K. Jordan, and B. Locke. “Psychiatric disorders. A rural/urban comparison.” Arch Gen Psychiatry 42, no. 7 (July 1985): 651–56. https://doi.org/10.1001/archpsyc.1985.01790300013002.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, J. P. Creason, and W. B. Riggan. “U.S. cancer mortality 1950-1978: a strategy for analyzing spatial and temporal patterns.” Environmental Health Perspectives 60 (May 1985): 369–80. https://doi.org/10.1289/ehp.8560369.
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    • Yashin, A. I., K. G. Manton, and J. W. Vaupel. “Mortality and aging in a heterogeneous population: a stochastic process model with observed and unobserved variables.” Theoretical Population Biology 27, no. 2 (April 1985): 154–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(85)90008-5.
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    • Liu, K., K. G. Manton, and B. M. Liu. “Home care expenses for the disabled elderly.” Health Care Financing Review 7, no. 2 (January 1985): 51–58.
    • Manton, K. G., K. Liu, and E. S. Cornelius. “An analysis of the heterogeneity of U.S. nursing home patients.” Journal of Gerontology 40, no. 1 (January 1985): 34–46. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/40.1.34.
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    • Manton, K. G., and B. J. Soldo. “Dynamics of health changes in the oldest old: new perspectives and evidence.” The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society 63, no. 2 (January 1985): 206–85. https://doi.org/10.2307/3349881.
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    • Manton, K. G., and K. Liu. “Strategies for collating diverse scientific evidence in the analysis of population health characteristics: Bioactuarial models of chronic disease mortality for the elderly.” Sociological Methods &Amp; Research 13, no. 3 (January 1, 1985): 407–31. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124185013003006.
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    • Soldo, B. J., and K. G. Manton. “Health status and service needs of the oldest old: current patterns and future trends.” The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society 63, no. 2 (January 1985): 286–319. https://doi.org/10.2307/3349882.
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    • Soldo, B. J., and K. G. Manton. “Demographic challenges for socioeconomic planning.” Socio Economic Planning Sciences 19, no. 4 (January 1985): 227–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/0038-0121(85)90048-5.
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    • Wing, S., H. A. Tyroler, and K. G. Manton. “The participant effect: mortality in a community-based study compared to vital statistics.” Journal of Chronic Diseases 38, no. 2 (January 1985): 135–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/0021-9681(85)90086-4.
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    • Wing, S., K. G. Manton, E. Stallard, C. G. Hames, and H. A. Tryoler. “The black/white mortality crossover: investigation in a community-based study.” Journal of Gerontology 40, no. 1 (January 1985): 78–84. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/40.1.78.
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    • Manton, K. G., and J. C. Vertrees. “The use of Grade of Membership analysis to evaluate and modify diagnosis-related groups.” Medical Care 22, no. 12 (December 1984): 1067–82. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-198412000-00002.
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    • Myers, G. C., and K. G. Manton. “Recent changes in the U.S. age at death distribution: further observations.” The Gerontologist 24, no. 6 (December 1984): 572–75. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/24.6.572.
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    • Manton, K. G., B. J. Soldo, and E. Vierck. “"Death and taxes": a contrary view.” Population Today 12, no. 11 (November 1984): 2–9.
    • Myers, G. C., and K. G. Manton. “Compression of mortality: myth or reality?” The Gerontologist 24, no. 4 (August 1984): 346–53. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/24.4.346.
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    • Manton, K. G., and K. Liu. “Projecting chronic disease prevalence.” Medical Care 22, no. 6 (June 1984): 511–26. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-198406000-00002.
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    • Manton, K. G., and H. M. Baum. “CVD mortality, 1968-1978: observations and implications.” Stroke 15, no. 3 (May 1984): 451–57. https://doi.org/10.1161/01.str.15.3.451.
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    • Liu, K., and K. G. Manton. “The characteristics and utilization pattern of an admission cohort of nursing home patients (II).” The Gerontologist 24, no. 1 (February 1984): 70–76. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/24.1.70.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Mortality patterns in developed countries.” Comparative Social Research 7 (January 1984): 259–86.
    • Manton, K. G. “Methods and issues in the projection of population health status.” World Health Statistics Quarterly. Rapport Trimestriel De Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales 37, no. 3 (January 1984): 294–305.
    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and K. Liu. “Life table methods for assessing the dynamics of U.S. nursing home utilization: 1976-1977.” Journal of Gerontology 39, no. 1 (January 1984): 79–87. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/39.1.79.
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    • Liu, K., and K. G. Manton. “The length-of-stay pattern of nursing home admissions.” Medical Care 21, no. 12 (December 1983): 1211–22. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-198312000-00008.
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    • Tolley, H. D., and K. G. Manton. “Multiple cause models of disease dependency.” Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 1983, no. 4 (October 1, 1983): 211–26. https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.1983.10408338.
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    • Manton, K. G., and M. A. Woodbury. “A mathematical model of the physiological dynamics of aging and correlated mortality selection: II. Application to the Duke Longitudinal Study.” Journal of Gerontology 38, no. 4 (July 1983): 406–13. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/38.4.406.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., and K. G. Manton. “A mathematical model of the physiological dynamics of aging and correlated mortality selection. I. Theoretical development and critiques.” Journal of Gerontology 38, no. 4 (July 1983): 398–405. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/38.4.398.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., and K. G. Manton. “A theoretical model of the physiological dynamics of circulatory disease in human populations.” Human Biology 55, no. 2 (May 1983): 417–41.
    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Letters to the editor.” International Journal of Epidemiology 12, no. 1 (March 1, 1983): 115–17. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/12.1.115.
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    • Liu, K., and K. G. Manton. “The characteristics and utilization pattern of an admission cohort of nursing home patients.” The Gerontologist 23, no. 1 (February 1983): 92–98. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/23.1.92.
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    • Wing, S., and K. G. Manton. “The contribution of hypertension to mortality in the US: 1968, 1977.” American Journal of Public Health 73, no. 2 (February 1983): 140–44. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.73.2.140.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and H. D. Tolley. “The Economic Impact of Health Policy Interventions.” Risk Analysis 3, no. 4 (January 1, 1983): 265–75. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1983.tb01395.x.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977.” Demography 19, no. 4 (November 1982): 527–47. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061017.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., and K. G. Manton. “A new procedure for analysis of medical classification.” Methods of Information in Medicine 21, no. 4 (October 1982): 210–20.
    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “A population-based model of respiratory cancer incidence, progression, diagnosis, treatment, and mortality.” Computers and Biomedical Research, an International Journal 15, no. 4 (August 1982): 342–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4809(82)90003-9.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “The use of mortality time series data to produce hypothetical morbidity distributions and projects mortality trends.” Demography 19, no. 2 (May 1982): 223–40. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061192.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Temporal and age variation of United States black/white cause-specific mortality differentials: a study of the recent changes in the relative health status of the United States black population.” The Gerontologist 22, no. 2 (April 1982): 170–79. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/22.2.170.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and W. Riggan. “Strategies for analysing ecological health data: models of the biological risk of individuals.” Statistics in Medicine 1, no. 2 (April 1982): 163–81. https://doi.org/10.1002/sim.4780010209.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “A cohort analysis of U.S. stomach cancer mortality 1950-1977.” International Journal of Epidemiology 11, no. 1 (March 1982): 49–61. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/11.1.49.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Bioactuarial models of national mortality time series data.” Health Care Financing Review 3, no. 3 (March 1982): 89–106.
    • Goodman, R. A., K. G. Manton, T. F. Nolan, D. J. Bregman, and A. R. Hinman. “Mortality Data Analysis Using a Multiple-Cause Approach.” Jama: The Journal of the American Medical Association 247, no. 6 (February 12, 1982): 793–96. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.1982.03320310041026.
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    • Goodman, R. A., K. G. Manton, T. F. Nolan, D. J. Bregman, and A. R. Hinman. “Mortality data analysis using a multiple-cause approach.” Jama 247, no. 6 (February 1982): 793–96. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.247.6.793.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population.” The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society 60, no. 2 (January 1982): 183–244. https://doi.org/10.2307/3349767.
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    • Patrick, C. H., and K. G. Manton. “An Analysis of Changes in the Risk of Mortality from Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease, 1968‐1977.” Risk Analysis 2, no. 3 (January 1, 1982): 183–93. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1982.tb01380.x.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “A dynamic analysis of chronic disease development: a study of sex specific changes in coronary heart disease incidence and risk factors in Framingham.” International Journal of Epidemiology 10, no. 4 (December 1981): 355–66. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/10.4.355.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and J. W. Vaupel. “Methods for comparing the mortality experience of heterogeneous populations.” Demography 18, no. 3 (August 1981): 389–410. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061005.
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    • Wing, S., and K. G. Manton. “A multiple cause of death analysis of hypertension-related mortality in North Carolina, 1968-1977.” American Journal of Public Health 71, no. 8 (August 1981): 823–30. https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.71.8.823.
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    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “A variance components approach to categorical data models with heterogeneous cell populations: analysis of spatial gradients in lung cancer mortality rates in North Carolina counties.” Biometrics 37, no. 2 (June 1981): 259–69. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530416.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Methods for the analysis of mortality risks across heterogeneous small populations: examination of space-time gradients in cancer mortality in North Carolina counties 1970-75.” Demography 18, no. 2 (May 1981): 217–30. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061094.
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    • Lampe Lg Batar, I., R. P. Bernard, E. M. Kendall, and K. G. Manton. “Effects of smoking and of induced abortion on pregnancy outcome.” Ippf Medical Bulletin 15, no. 2 (April 1981): 3.
    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Methods for evaluating the heterogeneity of aging processes in human populations using vital statistics data: explaining the black/white mortality crossover by a model of mortality selection.” Human Biology 53, no. 1 (February 1981): 47–67.
    • Manton, K. G., C. H. Patrick, and E. Stallard. “Mortality model based on delays in progression of chronic diseases: alternative to cause elimination model.” Public Health Reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974) 95, no. 6 (November 1980): 580–88.
    • Manton, K. G. “Sex and race specific mortality differentials in multiple cause of death data.” The Gerontologist 20, no. 4 (August 1980): 480–93. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/20.4.480.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “A stochastic compartment model representation of chronic disease dependence: techniques for evaluating parameters of partially unobserved age inhomogeneous stochastic processes.” Theoretical Population Biology 18, no. 1 (August 1980): 57–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(80)90040-4.
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    • Manton, K. G., C. H. Patrick, and E. Stallard. “Population impact of mortality reduction: the effects of elimination of major causes of death on the 'saved' population.” International Journal of Epidemiology 9, no. 2 (June 1980): 111–20. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/9.2.111.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Mortality of the chronically impaired.” Demography 17, no. 2 (May 1980): 189–206. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061059.
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    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, and S. S. Poss. “Estimates of U.S. multiple cause life tables.” Demography 17, no. 1 (February 1980): 85–102. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060965.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “A two-disease model of female breast cancer: mortality in 1969 among white females in the United States.” Journal of the National Cancer Institute 64, no. 1 (January 1980): 9–16.
    • Manton, K. G., E. Stallard, D. Burdick, and H. D. Tolley. “A stochastic compartment model of stomach cancer with correlated waiting time distributions.” International Journal of Epidemiology 8, no. 3 (September 1979): 283–91. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/8.3.283.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Longitudinal analysis of the dynamics and risk of coronary heart disease in the Framingham Study.” Biometrics 35, no. 3 (September 1979): 575–85. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530248.
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    • Manton, K. G., and E. Stallard. “Maximum likelihood estimation of a stochastic compartment model of cancer latency: lung cancer mortality among white females in the U.S.” Computers and Biomedical Research, an International Journal 12, no. 4 (August 1979): 313–25. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4809(79)90043-0.
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    • Vaupel, J. W., K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.” Demography 16, no. 3 (August 1979): 439–54. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061224.
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    • Manton, K. G., S. S. Poss, and S. Wing. “The black/white mortality crossover: investigation from the perspective of the components of aging.” The Gerontologist 19, no. 3 (June 1979): 291–300. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/19.3.291.
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    • Manton, K. G., and S. S. Poss. “Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies.” Demography 16, no. 2 (May 1979): 313–27. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061145.
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    • Manton, K. G., M. A. Woodbury, and E. Stallard. “Analysis of the components of CHD risk in the Framingham study: new multivariate procedures for the analysis of chronic disease development.” Computers and Biomedical Research, an International Journal 12, no. 2 (April 1979): 109–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/0010-4809(79)90009-0.
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    • Smith, J., D. Bromley, and K. Manton. “Changes in the coincidence of the boundaries and populations of central cities( US).” Social Forces 57, no. 3 (January 1, 1979): 931–51. https://doi.org/10.1093/sf/57.3.931.
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    • Tolley, H. D., K. G. Manton, and S. S. Poss. “A linear models application of competing risks to multiple causes of death.” Biometrics 34, no. 4 (December 1978): 581–91. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530377.
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    • Tolley, H. D., D. Burdick, K. G. Manton, and E. Stallard. “Compartment model approach to the estimation of tumor incidence and growth: investigation of a model of cancer latency.” Biometrics 34, no. 3 (September 1978): 377–89. https://doi.org/10.2307/2530600.
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    • Manton, K. G., and S. S. Poss. “The black/white mortality crossover: possible racial differences in the intrinsic rate of aging.” Black Aging 3 (January 1978): 43–53.
    • Manton, K. G., and G. C. Myers. “The structure of urban mortality. A methodological study of Hannover, Germany. Part II.” International Journal of Epidemiology 6, no. 3 (September 1977): 213–23. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/6.3.213.
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    • Myers, G. C., and K. G. Manton. “The structure of urban mortality. A methodological study of Hannover, Germany. Part I.” International Journal of Epidemiology 6, no. 3 (September 1977): 203–12. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/6.3.203.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and L. A. Woodbury. “An extension of the sign test for replicated measurements.” Biometrics 33, no. 3 (September 1977): 453–61. https://doi.org/10.2307/2529359.
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    • Woodbury, M. A. “A random-walk model of human mortality and aging.” Theoretical Population Biology 11, no. 1 (February 1977): 37–48. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-5809(77)90005-3.
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    • Manton, K. G., D. H. Tolley, and S. S. Poss. “Life table techniques for multiple-cause mortality.” Demography 13, no. 4 (November 1976): 541–64. https://doi.org/10.2307/2060509.
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    • Palmore, E. B., and K. Manton. “Modernization and status of the aged: international correlations.” J Gerontol 29, no. 2 (March 1974): 205–10. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/29.2.205.
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    • Palmore, E. B., and K. Manton. “Ageism compared to racism and sexism.” J Gerontol 28, no. 3 (July 1973): 363–69. https://doi.org/10.1093/geronj/28.3.363.
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    • Woodbury, M. A., K. G. Manton, and I. C. Siegler. “Markov Network Analysis: suggestions for innovations in covariance structure analysis.” Exp Aging Res 8, no. 3–4 (n.d.): 135–40. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610738208260270.
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  • Book Sections

    • Manton, K. G., and J. E. Morley. “The Demography of Ageing.” In Pathy’s Principles and Practice of Geriatric Medicine: Fifth Edition, 1:23–32, 2012. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119952930.ch2.
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    • Manton, K. G. “The Future of Old Age.” In Brocklehurst’s Textbook of Geriatric Medicine and Gerontology, 11–17, 2010. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-1-4160-6231-8.10003-0.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Population and labor force aging, effect on socio-economic development in brazil, russia, india and china.” In International Encyclopedia of Public Health, 170–81, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-012373960-5.00556-6.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Active life expectancy.” In International Encyclopedia of Public Health, 12–24, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-012373960-5.00104-0.
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    • Manton, K. G., H. Huang, and X. Gu. “Molecular basis of CNS aging, frailty, fitness and longevity: Amodel based on cellular energetics.” In Topics in Aging Research, 59–92, 2008.
    • Manton, K. G. “Epidemiology.” In Encyclopedia of Gerontology, 502–13, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-370870-2/00063-9.
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    • Manton, K. G. “Life expectancy.” In Encyclopedia of Gerontology, 61–67, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1016/B0-12-370870-2/00110-4.
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    • Manton, K. G., C. E. Holzer, E. MacKenzie, E. Spitznagel, A. Forsythe, and D. Jackson. “Statistical Methods for Estimating and Extrapolating Disease Prevalence and Incidence Rates from a Multisite Study.” In Epidemiologic Field Methods in Psychiatry: The NIMH Epidemiologic Catchment Area Program, 351–73, 1985. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-08-091798-6.50021-X.
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  • Conference Papers

    • Manton, K. G., K. C. Land, and E. Stallard. “Human aging and mortality.” In Constructal Theory of Social Dynamics, 183–96, 2007.

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