Scholars@Duke
Kenneth G. Manton

Kenneth G. Manton

Research Professor Emeritus of Demographic Studies
Trinity College of Arts & Sciences
kgm@cds.duke.edu
Box 90408, Durham, NC 27708-0408
2117 Campus Dr, Durham, NC 27705

Selected Publications

Epidemiology

Chapter · August 1, 2014 Neuro-Oncology: The Essentials, Third Edition, is a comprehensive introduction to the fundamental science and core clinical concepts behind the successful multidisciplinary management of patients with brain and spine tumors. ... Cite

The Demography of Ageing

Chapter · March 12, 2012 In the last century there have been marked increases in life expectancy. In addition, if people reach their 80s they appear to have a further increase in life expectancy which deviates from the Gompertz curve. Many of these changes appear to be due to impr ... Full text Cite

The Future of Old Age

Chapter · December 27, 2010 Full text Cite

Long-term economic growth stimulus of human capital preservation in the elderly.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · December 2009 Health care is a crucial factor in US economic growth, because growing health care costs have made US corporations less competitive than their counterparts in countries where central governments assume most of those costs. In this paper we illustrate a sec ... Full text Cite

NIH funding trajectories and their correlations with US health dynamics from 1950 to 2004.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · July 2009 To determine optimal future National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding levels, the longitudinal correlation of the level of investment in NIH research with population changes in the risk of specific diseases should be analyzed. This is because NIH researc ... Full text Cite

Linear latent structure analysis and modelling of multiple categorical variables

Journal Article Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine · January 1, 2009 Linear latent structure analysis is a new approach for investigation of population heterogeneity using high-dimensional categorical data. In this approach, the population is represented by a distribution of latent vectors, which play the role of heterogene ... Full text Cite

[Investigation of disability prevalence in men and women of advanced age].

Journal Article Advances in gerontology = Uspekhi gerontologii · January 2009 Disability prevalence among men and women are investigated using NLTCS surveys conducted in 1982, 1984, 1989, 1994 and 1999 in the US population, on persons older than 65 years, and data from LSADT surveys conducted in 1995, 1997, 1999 and 2001 in the popu ... Cite

Population and labor force aging, effect on socio-economic development in brazil, russia, india and china

Chapter · December 1, 2008 China and India have experienced rapid, economic, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth. After the economic disruption of the breakup of the Soviet system, Russia and many countries in Eastern Europe, are now manifesting rapid economic growth. As well, t ... Full text Cite

Active life expectancy

Chapter · December 1, 2008 Active life expectancy, the average number of years a person can expect to live without chronic disability, is a better measure of the health status of populations in economically developed countries than total life expectancy because the latter has reache ... Full text Cite

Cohort changes in active life expectancy in the U.S. elderly population: experience from the 1982-2004 National Long-Term Care Survey.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · September 2008 ObjectivesTo understand declines in chronic disability prevalence in the U.S. elderly population, we examined cohort changes in active life expectancy, a health measure relating population disability and longevity dynamics.MethodsWe compu ... Full text Cite

Human mortality at extreme ages: Data from the NLTCS and linked medicare records

Journal Article Mathematical Population Studies · July 1, 2008 An analysis using the 1982-1999 National Long-term Care Survey (NLTCS) linked to Medicare vital statistics data 1982-2003 focused on deaths at ages 85+ where deviations from the Gompertz mortality function are often observed. To model the complex mortality ... Full text Cite

Association between APOE epsilon 2/epsilon 3/epsilon 4 polymorphism and disability severity in a national long-term care survey sample.

Journal Article Age and ageing · May 2008 Backgroundearly studies reported controversial findings on association of apolipoprotein E (APOE) polymorphism with disability.Objectiveto analyse sex-specific associations of APOE genotypes with impairments in (instrumental) activities o ... Full text Cite

Molecular basis of CNS aging, frailty, fitness and longevity: Amodel based on cellular energetics

Chapter · March 1, 2008 The concept of frailty, a decrease in physical function and increasing vulnerability to morbidity and death, is central to the biological study of aging (Fried et al., 2001; Walston, 2004). Genetics, epigenetics, free radicals, aging, disease, and cellular ... Cite

Health-protective and adverse effects of the apolipoprotein E epsilon2 allele in older men.

Journal Article Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · March 2008 OBJECTIVES: To reexamine a health-protective role of the common apolipoprotein E (APOE) polymorphism focusing on connections between the APOE epsilon2-containing genotypes and impairments in instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) in older (> or = ... Cite

Recent declines in chronic disability in the elderly U.S. population: risk factors and future dynamics.

Journal Article Annual review of public health · January 2008 As U.S. life expectancy has increased, questions arise as to how the quality of health and functioning in the elderly population has changed. Data from the 1982-2004 National Long-Term Care Survey (NLTCS) suggested that chronic disability prevalence above ... Full text Cite

Ethical and policy issues relating to progenitor-cell-based strategies for prevention of atherosclerosis.

Journal Article J Med Ethics · November 2007 OBJECTIVE: To examine important ethical and societal issues relating to the use of progenitor-cell-based strategies for disease prevention, particularly atherosclerosis. BACKGROUND: Several nascent lines of evidence suggest the feasibility of using progeni ... Full text Link to item Cite

Labor force participation and human capital increases in an aging population and implications for U.S. research investment.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · June 2007 The proportion of the United States labor force >/=65 years of age is projected to increase between 2004 and 2014 by the passing of age 65 of the large post-World War II baby boom cohorts starting in 2010 and their greater longevity, income, education, and ... Full text Cite

Medicare cost effects of recent U.S. disability trends in the elderly: future implications.

Journal Article Journal of aging and health · June 2007 ObjectiveThe authors examine how trends in disability prevalence and in inflation-adjusted per capita, per annum Medicare costs, 1982 to 1999 and 1989 to 1999, affected total Medicare costs projected to 2004 and 2009.MethodTo describe dis ... Full text Cite

Standardize concepts, not tools for quality improvement.

Journal Article The Journal of ambulatory care management · April 2007 Pay for performance has become a new mantra in the ongoing efforts to improve the quality of healthcare and stabilize healthcare costs. In response to complaints of employers and others, numerous organizations have emerged to try and standardize the tools ... Full text Cite

Health-based population forecasting: effects of smoking on mortality and fertility.

Journal Article Risk Anal · April 2007 A microsimulation model, allowing one to forecast short- and long-term population changes conditional on the prevalence of a risk factor in a population, is presented. In this model, population changes result from the aggregation of changes in individual e ... Full text Link to item Cite

Cumulative index of health disorders as an indicator of aging-associated processes in the elderly: results from analyses of the National Long Term Care Survey.

Journal Article Mechanisms of ageing and development · March 2007 BackgroundWe employ an approach based on the elaborated frailty index (FI), which is capable of taking into account variables with mild effect on the aging, health and survival outcomes, and investigate the connections between the FI, chronologica ... Full text Cite

SOD2 polymorphisms: unmasking the effect of polymorphism on splicing.

Journal Article BMC medical genetics · March 2007 BackgroundThe SOD2 gene encodes an antioxidant enzyme, mitochondrial superoxide dismutase. SOD2 polymorphisms are of interest because of their potential roles in the modulation of free radical-mediated macromolecular damage during aging.Result ... Full text Cite

Life Expectancy

Chapter · January 1, 2007 Full text Cite

Linear latent structure analysis: Mixture distribution models with linear constraints

Journal Article Statistical Methodology · January 1, 2007 A new method for analyzing high-dimensional categorical data, Linear Latent Structure (LLS) analysis, is presented. LLS models belong to the family of latent structure models, which are mixture distribution models constrained to satisfy the local independe ... Full text Cite

Human aging and mortality

Conference Constructal Theory of Social Dynamics · January 1, 2007 Full text Cite

Epidemiology

Chapter · January 1, 2007 Full text Cite

Life expectancy

Chapter · January 1, 2007 Full text Cite

Accumulation of health disorders as a systemic measure of aging: Findings from the NLTCS data.

Journal Article Mechanisms of ageing and development · November 2006 BackgroundAn index of age-associated health/well-being disorders (deficits), called the "frailty index" (FI), appears to be a promising characteristic to capture dynamic variability in aging manifestations among age-peers. In this study we provide ... Full text Cite

Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the U.S. elderly population.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · November 2006 Changes in the health and functioning of the Medicare-enrolled population aged 65+ are tracked by using the 1982-2004/2005 National Long-Term Care Surveys. We found a significant rate of decline in the prevalence of chronic disability that accelerated from ... Full text Cite

The risk of radiation-induced cerebrovascular disease in Chernobyl emergency workers.

Journal Article Health Phys · March 2006 The paper deals with estimating radiation risks of non-cancer diseases of the circulatory system among the Chernobyl emergency workers based on data from the Russian National Medical and Dosimetric Registry. The results for the cohort of 61,017 people obse ... Full text Link to item Cite

Long-term trends in life expectancy and active life expectancy in the United States

Journal Article Population and Development Review · March 1, 2006 Changes in life expectancy and in active life expectancy may have effects on the fiscal integrity of both the Social Security and Medicare programs. Analysis of the fiscal stability of these programs shows that the most serious problem may be the growth of ... Full text Cite

Population models for the health effects of ionizing radiation.

Journal Article Radiats Biol Radioecol · 2006 In this paper we review recently-developed extension frailty, quadratic hazard, stochastic process, microsimulation, and linear latent structure models, which have the potential to describe the health effects of human populations exposed to ionizing radiat ... Link to item Cite

Modeling the effects of biologically incorporated radionuclides and chronic low-dose ionizing radiation exposure on both cancer and chronic non-cancer diseases.

Journal Article Radiats Biol Radioecol · 2006 Efforts to model the health effects of low-dose ionizing radiation (IR) have often focused on cancer. Meanwhile, significant evidence links IR and age-associated non-cancer diseases. Modeling of such complex processes, which are not currently well understo ... Link to item Cite

Endothelial progenitor cell therapy for atherosclerosis: the philosopher's stone for an aging population?

Journal Article Sci Aging Knowledge Environ · June 22, 2005 Much of the increased risk for atherosclerosis progression with age may be a result of age-related declines in the capacity of precursor cells to repair damage in the arterial endothelium. To estimate the impact of progenitor cell therapy for atheroscleros ... Full text Link to item Cite

Newborn screening for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID): a review.

Journal Article Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library · May 2005 Because prompt intervention may prevent complications, early diagnosis is important in many inherited metabolic diseases. Early diagnosis of Severe Combined Immunodeficiency (SCID) is critical - because chances for successful treatment are highest for infa ... Full text Cite

Life tables with covariates: Dynamic model for nonlinear analysis of longitudinal data

Journal Article Mathematical Population Studies · April 1, 2005 Life table models based on nonlinear dynamics of risk factors are developed using stochastic differential equations for individual changes and on the resulting Fokker-Planck equation to describe population changes. Central to the model is a microsimulation ... Full text Cite

Declining prevalence of dementia in the U.S. elderly population.

Journal Article Advances in gerontology = Uspekhi gerontologii · January 2005 A decline in chronic disability prevalence occurred 1982 to 1999 in the U.S. elderly population parallel to declines in severe cognitive impairment. Comparative analysis of factors contributing to the incidence of dementia led us to suggest explanations fo ... Cite

Whether ionizing radiation is a risk factor for schizophrenia spectrum disorders?

Journal Article The world journal of biological psychiatry : the official journal of the World Federation of Societies of Biological Psychiatry · January 2005 The neural diathesis-stressor hypothesis of schizophrenia, where neurobiological genetic predisposition to schizophrenia can be provoked by environmental stressors is considered as a model of the effects of exposure to ionizing radiation. Analysis of infor ... Full text Cite

Genome organization and three kinds of heritable changes: general description and stochastic factors (a review).

Journal Article Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library · January 2005 Due to the increased knowledge of genome architecture, topology, and the mechanisms of hereditary variability, the list of genetic components has grown. This review outlines the general features and principles of genome organization in diverse organisms. T ... Full text Cite

A three-generation approach in biodemography is based on the developmental profiles and the epigenetics of female gametes.

Journal Article Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library · January 2005 We suggest that there are three premises underlying the need for biodemographic analyses of three-generations: 1.) To describe the structure of the genome, we need to use (apart from mutations) other kinds of heritable changes such as those mediated by fac ... Full text Cite

The immune system in aging: roles of cytokines, T cells and NK cells.

Journal Article Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library · January 2005 Aging is characterized by a proinflammatory state that contributes to the onset of disability and age-related diseases. Proinflammatory cytokines play a central role in mediating cellular and physiological responses. The levels of these cytokines may refle ... Full text Cite

Risk of thyroid cancer after irradiation in children and adults

Journal Article Current Oncology · January 1, 2005 Cite

The effect of the organisms' body size and energy reserves in models for population dynamics

Journal Article Journal of Biological Systems · December 1, 2004 We present two models suitable for describing dynamics of a population of unicellular organisms residing in chemostat. These models are based on biologically motivated Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory and take into account the dynamics of mean energy res ... Full text Cite

ROS effects on neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's disease and related disorders: on environmental stresses of ionizing radiation.

Journal Article Current Alzheimer research · November 2004 Neurodegenerative processes associated with Alzheimer's disease are complex and involve many CNS tissue types, structures and biochemical processes. Factors believed involved in these processes are generation of Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS), associated in ... Full text Cite

Fuzzy set analyses of genetic determinants of health and disability status.

Journal Article Statistical methods in medical research · October 2004 Analyses of complex genotype-phenotype relations require new statistical procedures because of the potentially high dimensionability of those relations which are expressed with both measurement error and stochasticity in the correlation function. We propos ... Full text Cite

Effect of exposure to light-at-night on life span and spontaneous carcinogenesis in female CBA mice.

Journal Article International journal of cancer · September 2004 The effect of constant illumination on the development of spontaneous tumors in female CBA mice was investigated. Fifty female CBA mice starting from the age of 2 months were kept under standard light/dark regimen (12 hr light:12 hr dark; LD) and 50 CBA mi ... Full text Cite

Demographic analysis and modeling of human populations exposed to ionizing radiation.

Journal Article Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library · September 2004 The health effects of ionizing radiation on human populations are often analyzed using epidemiological statistical methods. Because of the complexity of the health consequences of ionizing radiation and the prolonged period during which the consequences em ... Full text Cite

Resolving inconsistencies in trends in old-age disability: report from a technical working group.

Journal Article Demography · August 2004 In September 2002, a technical working group met to resolve previously published inconsistencies across national surveys in trends in activity limitations among the older population. The 12-person panel prepared estimates from five national data sets and i ... Full text Cite

The role of oxidative damage in mitochondria during aging: a review.

Journal Article Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library · May 2004 Aging is a complex process (or series of processes). Recent evidence suggests that several of its most important mechanisms are linked by means of cellular damage caused by reactive oxygen species (ROS). Oxidative damage may be a major factor in the loss o ... Full text Cite

Modeling nonlinear effects in longitudinal survival data: implications for the physiological dynamics of biological systems.

Journal Article Frontiers in bioscience : a journal and virtual library · January 2004 Despite the wealth of longitudinal data on the health dynamics of human populations, information on covariates (risk factors) changes in those studies has not been systematically and fully exploited. In this work we use the 46-year follow-up of the Framing ... Full text Cite

Disability trends in gender and race groups of early retirement ages in the USA.

Journal Article Sozial- und Praventivmedizin · January 2004 ObjectivesTo analyse disability trends over the 1980s-1990s in gender and race groups of early retirement ages in USA.MethodsDisability trends for white and black males and females aged 65-69 and 70+ are analysed using the 1982-1999 NLTCS ... Full text Cite

Co-morbidity and black and white disparities in health and functional status

Journal Article Review of Black Political Economy · January 1, 2004 Human capital includes health. To reduce health disparities, Public Law 106-525 established the National Center on Minority Health and Health Disparities (NCMHHD), which targets individual diseases. However, differences in patterns of co-occurring conditio ... Full text Cite

Better health, lower spending.

Journal Article Health affairs (Project Hope) · January 2004 Full text Cite

Dose-dependent effect of melatonin on life span and spontaneous tumor incidence in female SHR mice.

Journal Article Experimental gerontology · April 2003 From the age of 3 months until their natural death, female Swiss-derived SHR mice were given melatonin with their drinking water (2 or 20mg/l) for 5 consecutive days every month. Intact mice served as controls. There were 54 mice in each group. The results ... Full text Cite

The effect of melatonin treatment regimen on mammary adenocarcinoma development in HER-2/neu transgenic mice.

Journal Article International journal of cancer · January 2003 The effect of various regimens of treatment with melatonin on the development of mammary tumors in HER2/neu transgenic mice was investigated. Female HER-2/neu mice starting from the age of 2 months were kept under standard light/dark regimen and as given m ... Full text Cite

Forecasting the nursing home population.

Journal Article Medical care · January 2003 Full text Cite

Grade-of-membership sibpair linkage analysis maps IDDM11 to chromosome 14q24.3-q31.

Journal Article Annals of human genetics · July 2001 We demonstrate the use of Grade-of-membership (GoM) (Manton et al. 1994) for sibpair linkage analysis: GoM was used to map the IDDM11 locus to the region of chromosome 14q24.3 identified by Field et al. (1996). Haplotype groups were constructed from sib pa ... Full text Cite

Changes in the prevalence of chronic disability in the United States black and nonblack population above age 65 from 1982 to 1999.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · May 2001 Survey evidence through the early 1990s generally suggests a reduction in disability in the elderly population of the United States. Because the evidence is not fully consistent, several authors have speculated about whether disability declines will contin ... Full text Cite

Active life expectancy estimates for the U.S. elderly population: a multidimensional continuous-mixture model of functional change applied to completed cohorts, 1982-1996.

Journal Article Demography · August 2000 An increment-decrement stochastic-process life table model that continuously mixes measures of functional change is developed to represent age transitions among highly refined disability states interacting simultaneously with mortality. The model is applie ... Full text Cite

Changes in home care use by disabled elderly persons: 1982-1994.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · July 2000 ObjectivesThe use of, and changes in the use of. formal (paid) and informal care by elderly persons who are chronically disabled and living in the community was studied.MethodsEstimates were made of the sources and volume of home care use ... Full text Cite

Gender differences in the cross-sectional and cohort age dependence of cause-specific mortality: the United States, 1962 to 1995.

Journal Article The journal of gender-specific medicine : JGSM : the official journal of the Partnership for Women's Health at Columbia · May 2000 ObjectiveGender- and age-specific mortality rates were calculated to determine the role of behavioral and biologically based differences in health.DesignChanges in age-specific mortality rates were calculated for males and females across ... Cite

Mortality oscillations induced by periodic starvation alter sex-mortality differentials in Mediterranean fruit flies.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · January 2000 Full text Cite

Multidimensional disability/mortality trajectories at ages 65 and over: The impact of state dependence

Journal Article Social Indicators Research · January 1, 2000 How dependent is life expectancy at age 65 on one’s degree of disability or specific types of functional limitations? Are there significant sex differences? For closed-cohorts of males and females in different disability/functional-status status at age 65, ... Full text Cite

Vitality index in survival modeling: how physiological aging influences mortality.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · January 2000 We investigated the relation of the age trajectory of physiological indicators of the average metabolic activity of organisms in a population to the age-specific population mortality rate. We show that a metabolic rate indicator (MRI) can be estimated usin ... Full text Cite

Dirichlet generalizations of latent-class models

Journal Article Journal of Classification · January 1, 2000 With a latent-class model, each individual belongs to a single latent class, which determines the person's set of response probabilities for the observed, or manifest, variables. A more general model, proposed herein, adds a single parameter and involves d ... Full text Cite

Dynamic paradigms for human mortality and aging.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · June 1999 Hazard models are often applied to mortality data of humans and other species so that the parameter estimates made for those models can be used to make inferences about the biology, and comparative biology, of aging processes. Enough longitudinal data on p ... Full text Cite

Health care costs.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · February 1999 Full text Cite

Models for forecasting chronic disease processes in adult and elderly populations: effects of stochasticity.

Journal Article Journal of epidemiology and biostatistics · January 1999 BackgroundForecasting the population health burden of chronic diseases requires models consistent with the relation, over time and in an uncertain environment, of risk factors and diseases at the individual level. There is now sufficient longitudi ... Cite

Effects of medical research on health care and economy.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · January 1999 Full text Cite

The effects of health changes on projections of health service needs for the elderly population of the United States.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · December 1998 The 1982-1994 National Long-Term Care Surveys indicate an accelerating decline in disability among the U.S. elderly population, suggesting that a 1.5% annual decline in chronic disability for elderly persons is achievable. Furthermore, many risk factors fo ... Full text Cite

Forecasting methods for HIV/AIDS and aging

Journal Article Research on Aging · November 1, 1998 Recent treatment advances suggest that AIDS may be changing from a rapidly lethal, acute disease into a chronic disease process with lengthy periods of remission. Stochastic compartment models can describe AIDS progression, remission, and overall survival. ... Full text Cite

Biodemographic trajectories of longevity.

Journal Article Science · May 8, 1998 Old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950. Death rates decelerate with age for insects, worms, and yeast, as well as humans. This evidence of extended postreproductive survival is puzzling. Three biodemographic insights--concerning the correl ... Full text Link to item Cite

Economic Effects of Reducing Disability

Journal Article American Economic Review · May 1, 1998 Cite

“Social security: Regressive or progressive?”, Robert L. Brown, April 1998

Journal Article North American Actuarial Journal · April 1, 1998 Full text Cite

The dynamics of dimensions of age-related disability 1982 to 1994 in the U.S. elderly population.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · January 1998 Declines in chronic disability were observed in the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS) 1982 to 1994. We analyzed the 1982, 1984, 1989, and 1994 NLTCS to identify the dimensions of chronic disability from multivariate analyses of a rich battery of measu ... Full text Cite

Education-specific estimates of life expectancy and age-specific disability in the U.S. elderly population: 1982 to 1991.

Journal Article Journal of aging and health · November 1997 The authors used mortality data for 1982 to 1991 linked to survey records from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys to calculate gender differences over age in mortality and functional status for high (8 or more years of schooling) and ... Full text Cite

Monitoring changes in the health of the U.S. elderly population: correlates with biomedical research and clinical innovations.

Journal Article FASEB journal : official publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology · October 1997 Full text Cite

Future trends in chronic disability and institutionalization: implications for long-term care needs.

Journal Article Health care management (Philadelphia, Pa.) · June 1997 Demographic changes (including a healthier and aging population), trends in chronic morbidity and disability, and changes in active life expectancy have affected trends in long-term care delivery in the United States. Managed care plans face particular cha ... Cite

Analyses of cohort mortality incorporating observed and unobserved risk factors

Journal Article Mathematical and Computer Modelling · April 1, 1997 Interventions to prevent disease and increase life expectancy are most effectively developed from data on pathways to disease and death. Unfortunately, most national data sets separate end-state information-i.e., cause-specific mortality-from pathway data ... Full text Cite

Chronic disability trends in elderly United States populations: 1982-1994.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · March 1997 Statistically significant declines in chronic disability prevalence rates were observed in the elderly United States population between the 1982 and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys (NLTCS). The 1994 NLTCS was used to investigate whether disability rat ... Full text Cite

Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: cohort and other determinants.

Journal Article Demography · February 1997 Though the general trend in the United States has been toward increasing life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, the temporal rate of change in life expectancy since 1900 has been variable and often restricted to specific population groups. There have ... Full text Cite

Evaluating partially observed survival histories: Retrospective projection of covariate trajectories

Journal Article Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis · January 1, 1997 The use of maximum likelihood methods in analysing times to failure in the presence of unobserved randomly changing covariates requires constrained optimization procedures. An alternative approach using a generalized version of the EM-algorithm requires sm ... Full text Cite

Effects of unobserved and partially observed covariate processes on system failure: A review of models and estimation strategies

Journal Article Statistical Science · January 1, 1997 Stochastically changing covariates may inuence survival. They may be observed, unobserved or partly observed. We review the properties of hazard models explicitly representing the effects of unobserved, and partially observed, stochastic covariates. Such m ... Full text Cite

Demographic trends for the aging female population.

Journal Article Journal of the American Medical Women's Association (1972) · January 1997 Female life expectancy is higher at birth and at age 65 than the corresponding male life expectancies in the United States--and in most developed countries. In contrast, age-specific prevalences of chronic disability and institutional residence are higher ... Cite

Convex models of high dimensional discrete data

Journal Article Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics · January 1, 1997 Categorical data of high (but finite) dimensionality generate sparsely populated J-way contingency tables because of finite sample sizes. A model representing such data by a "smooth" low dimensional parametric structure using a "natural" metric would be us ... Full text Cite

Longevity in the united states: age and sex-specific evidence on life span limits from mortality patterns 1960-1990.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · September 1996 Determining the biological limits to human longevity is more difficult than for most other species because humans are long-lived. Consequently, mortality data, such as from the U.S. vital statistics system, which have been available for a long time (relati ... Full text Cite

Apolipoprotein E polymorphism and stroke in a population sample aged 75 years or more.

Journal Article Stroke · August 1996 Background and purposeWe investigated apolipoprotein E polymorphism stroke risk in a population sample of 1810 persons aged 75 years or more in Stockholm (the Kungsholmen Project). Information on cognition at cohort inception (from 1987 to 1989) a ... Full text Cite

Prior and current costs in capitated health plans: the effects of health status at enrollment.

Journal Article Journal of aging and health · May 1996 We compared the prior and current costs of persons age 65 and older enrolling in a Social/Health Maintenance Organization in each of four sites with samples of persons using standard Medicare benefits in each site. Analyses were adjusted for individual he ... Full text Cite

Apolipoprotein E genotype determines survival in the oldest old (85 years or older) who have good cognition.

Journal Article Archives of neurology · May 1996 ObjectiveTo quantify the influence of apolipoprotein E (APOE) polymorphism on cognition and survival in a population sample aged 75 years or older.DesignThe Kungsholmen Project established a cohort of 1810 residents in a district in Stock ... Full text Cite

Survival after age 80.

Journal Article The New England journal of medicine · February 1996 Full text Cite

Proxy response patterns among the aged: effects on estimates of health status and medical care utilization from the 1982-1984 long-term care surveys.

Journal Article Journal of clinical epidemiology · February 1996 We examined the use of proxies in samples of persons aged 65 years and over from the 1982 and 1984 National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCS). The NLTCS are designed to describe the Medicare-enrolled elderly population, their health and functioning, hospital, ... Full text Cite

Changes in health, mortality, and disability and their impact on long-term care needs.

Journal Article Journal of aging & social policy · January 1996 The need for long-term care is driven both by the growth of the elderly population and changes in the age relations of morbidity, disability, and mortality. Data show these relations changed in the U.S. elderly population from 1982 to 1989. Chronic disabil ... Full text Cite

Recent nursing home data: A multivariate analysis of two-repeated cross-sectional surveys of the institutionalized aged

Journal Article Journal of Economic and Social Measurement · January 1, 1996 Longitudinal changes in the characteristics of the nursing home population as represented in the most recent National Nursing Home Surveys (NNHS) were analyzed (1977 and 1985). This period is characterized by major changes in the delivery and financing of ... Full text Cite

Evaluating long-term care demonstrations in real time with study design and plan performance interactions.

Journal Article Medical care · December 1995 The evaluation of long-term care demonstrations has to deal with complex organizational entities, with large, heterogeneous client populations that, during the course of study, may have to change features of their organization or operation. The implication ... Full text Cite

Survival after the age of 80 in the United States, Sweden, France, England, and Japan.

Journal Article The New England journal of medicine · November 1995 BackgroundIn many developed countries, life expectancy at birth is higher than in the United States. Newly available data permit, for the first time, reliable cross-national comparisons of mortality among persons 80 years of age or older. Such com ... Full text Cite

Sex differences in human mortality and aging at late ages: the effect of mortality selection and state dynamics.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · October 1995 Models of gender differences in human mortality and aging depend on assumptions about temporal rates of physiological change. Simple models like the Gompertz fail to describe the mortality of either males or females at late ages. This suggests a need for b ... Full text Cite

Nursing home residents: a multivariate analysis of their medical, behavioral, psychosocial, and service use characteristics.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · September 1995 BackgroundElderly residents of nursing homes often have multiple comorbidities and functional limitations. The status of 4,525 residents of complex and standard care units in 177 nursing homes where the nursing home was determined to provide adequ ... Full text Cite

Changes in morbidity and chronic disability in the U.S. elderly population: evidence from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series B, Psychological sciences and social sciences · July 1995 We examined changes in the reported prevalence of 16 medical conditions in the U.S. population age 65 and above using data from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys. Changes in those disease prevalence rates were examined both as observ ... Full text Cite

Case mix controlled service use and expenditures in the social/health maintenance organization demonstration.

Journal Article The journals of gerontology. Series A, Biological sciences and medical sciences · January 1995 BackgroundThe social health maintenance organization (S/HMO) demonstration was implemented, in part, to determine if the presumed integration of acute and chronic care in these plans could produce sufficient savings to allow plans to offer expande ... Full text Cite

The effects of health histories on stochastic process models of aging and mortality.

Journal Article Journal of mathematical biology · January 1995 A model of human health history and aging, based on a multivariate stochastic process with both continuous diffusion and discrete jump components, is presented. Discrete changes generate non-Gaussian diffusion with time varying continuous state distributio ... Full text Cite

Time-varying covariates in models of human mortality and aging: multidimensional generalizations of the Gompertz.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · July 1994 Models of mortality and aging depend on assumptions about physiological change even if they are not made explicit. Standard models, like the Gompertz, often fail to describe mortality at extreme ages, suggesting a need for biologically more detailed and fl ... Full text Cite

A method for adjusting capitation payments to managed care plans using multivariate patterns of health and functioning: the experience of Social/Health Maintenance Organizations.

Journal Article Medical care · March 1994 A multivariate procedure for identifying case-mix dimensions from discrete health variables is presented. Since the dimensions are generated only from health use data and not service use data, they can be used for adjust capitation rates to provide incenti ... Full text Cite

Symptom profiles of psychiatric disorders based on graded disease classes: an illustration using data from the WHO International Pilot Study of Schizophrenia.

Journal Article Psychological medicine · February 1994 The Grade of Membership (GoM) model is a classification procedure which allows a person to be a member of more than one diagnostic class. It simultaneously quantifies the degrees of membership in classes while generating the discrete symptom profiles or 'p ... Full text Cite

Home health and skilled nursing facility use: 1982-90.

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1994 In this article, analyses are made of home health and skilled nursing facility (SNF) use for the period 1982-90 using Medicare records linked to data on community and institutional residents from the National Long-Term Care Surveys (NLTCSs) of 1982, 1984, ... Cite

Modifications of the EM algorithm for survival influenced by an unobserved stochastic process

Journal Article Stochastic Processes and their Applications · January 1, 1994 Let Y=(Yt)t≥0) be an unobserved random process which influences the distribution of a random variable T which can be interpreted as the time to failure. When a conditional hazard rate corresponding to T is a quadratic function of covariates, Y, the margina ... Full text Cite

A general model for statistical analysis using fuzzy sets: Sufficient conditions for identifiability and statistical properties

Journal Article Information Sciences - Applications · January 1, 1994 Fuzzy sets and fuzzy state modeling require modifications of fundamental principles of statistical estimation and inference. These modifications trade increased computational effort for greater generality of data representation. For example, multivariate d ... Full text Cite

A multivariate analysis of disability and health, and its change over time in the National Channeling Demonstration data.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · October 1993 The Channeling Demonstration examined the effects of case management interventions on a variety of outcomes. In the study, longitudinal data were collected from interviews of cases and controls. A multivariate procedure applied to this data identified grou ... Full text Cite

Forecasts of active life expectancy: policy and fiscal implications.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · September 1993 Age-related changes in functional status can be summarized by active life expectancy (ALE) measures. ALE is useful in assessing efforts to improve function and in determining a population's service needs. ALE disaggregates total life expectancy (TLE) into ... Full text Cite

Use of Medicare services before and after introduction of the prospective payment system.

Journal Article Health services research · August 1993 ObjectiveThe case mix-adjusted pattern of use of health care services, especially posthospital care, is compared before and after the introduction of Medicare's Prospective Payment System (PPS).Data sourcesThe 1982 and 1984 National Long ... Cite

Estimates of change in chronic disability and institutional incidence and prevalence rates in the U.S. elderly population from the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Survey.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · July 1993 The U.S. elderly (65+) and oldest-old (85+) populations are growing rapidly which, combined with their high per capita acute and long-term care needs, will increase total U.S. health care needs. Also important in determining needs is how health and functio ... Full text Cite

Catastrophic acute and long-term care costs: risks faced by disabled elderly persons.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · June 1993 This article presents an empirical analysis of the extent to which acute and long-term care cause disabled elderly persons to incur catastrophic costs. We found that the proportion of those people whose out-of-pocket costs exceed 20% of income rises from 2 ... Full text Cite

Changes in the use of personal assistance and special equipment from 1982 to 1989: results from the 1982 and 1989 NLTCS.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · April 1993 Analysis of data from the 1982, 1984 and 1989 National Long-term Care Surveys suggests that long-term care use is changing. Between 1982 and 1989, equipment use by persons with light physical impairment, or to supplement personal assistance for the severel ... Full text Cite

Reply to Kott’s letter

Journal Article Journal of the American Statistical Association · January 1, 1993 Full text Cite

Correcting for nonavailability bias in surveys by weighting based on number of callbacks

Journal Article Journal of the American Statistical Association · January 1, 1993 When respondents to sample surveys differ from nonrespondents, bias can result. Nonresponse is produced by both refusal and nonavailability. Here we concentrate on nonavailability. Clever weighting schemes to deal with nonavailability bias were proposed ab ... Full text Cite

Methods for combining ancillary data in stochastic compartment models of cancer mortality: generalization of heterogeneity models.

Journal Article Mathematical population studies · January 1993 "We present a mortality model where nationally representative survey data on risk factor distributions are combined with data on cohort mortality rates to increase information, i.e., a fixed marginal risk factor distribution is combined with a cohort model ... Full text Cite

Social/health maintenance organization and fee-for-service health outcomes over time.

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1993 Evaluating the performance of long-term care (LTC) demonstrations requires longitudinal assessment of multiple outcomes where selective mortality and disenrollment, if not accounted for, can give the appearance of reduced (or enhanced) efficacy. We assesse ... Cite

Projecting the future size and health status of the U.S. elderly population.

Journal Article International journal of forecasting · November 1992 "A projection model based on a multivariate continuous state, stochastic process is presented. The model allows multiple time-varying covariates to be used so parameters can be estimated from time series information on health changes and mortality, and th ... Full text Cite

Demographics (1950-1987) of breast cancer in birth cohorts of older women.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · November 1992 The effects of screening on breast cancer mortality, incidence, and prevalence were investigated using a general forecasting and simulation model. First, a biologically motivated model of disease incidence and mortality was fit to the breast cancer mortali ... Cite

Projections of disability consequences in Indonesia.

Journal Article Journal of cross-cultural gerontology · July 1992 With the populations in many developing countries growing older due to declining fertility and infant mortality, there is concern that chronic disease and disability will rapidly increase in prevalence. Such an increase could create a conflict of prioritie ... Full text Cite

Risk factor dynamics, mortality and life expectancy differences between eastern and western Finland: the Finnish Cohorts of the Seven Countries Study.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · April 1992 Prior studies have not accounted for male mortality being higher in east than west Finland. Efforts to identify the mechanisms producing higher mortality in the east, due primarily to cardiovascular diseases (CVD), initially focused on a search for new ris ... Full text Cite

The dynamics of aging: Measurement and intervention issues for health and function.

Journal Article Journal of cross-cultural gerontology · April 1992 Full text Cite

Large sample properties of estimates of a discrete grade of membership model

Journal Article Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics · March 1, 1992 Increasingly, fuzzy partitions are being used in multivariate classification problems as an alternative to the crisp classification procedures commonly used. One such fuzzy partition, the grade of membership model, partitions individuals into fuzzy sets us ... Full text Cite

Equivalent sample size and “equivalent degrees of freedom” refinements for inference using survey weights under superpopulation models

Journal Article Journal of the American Statistical Association · January 1, 1992 A number of procedures have been proposed to attack different inference problems for data drawn from a survey with a complex sample design (i.e., a design that entails unequal weighting). Most procedures either are based on finite-population assumptions or ... Full text Cite

Analysis of underwriting factors for AAPCC (adjusted average per capita cost).

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1992 The adjusted average per capita cost (AAPCC) formula is used to determine payment to health maintenance organizations (HMOs) by Medicare. The four original underwriting factors (i.e., age, sex, institutional status, and welfare status) for the AAPCC were c ... Cite

Forecasting health: data needs and implications for model structure.

Journal Article World health statistics quarterly. Rapport trimestriel de statistiques sanitaires mondiales · January 1992 An agenda for analysing data on the health and functioning of the elderly must indicate new types of data to be collected, innovations in data collection strategies and new methods for analysis and forecasting. The required research agenda is broad and wil ... Cite

Assessment of spatial variation of risks in small populations.

Journal Article Environmental health perspectives · December 1991 Often environmental hazards are assessed by examining the spatial variation of disease-specific mortality or morbidity rates. These rates, when estimated for small local populations, can have a high degree of random variation or uncertainty associated with ... Full text Cite

Statistical and measurement issues in assessing the welfare status of aged individuals and populations

Journal Article Journal of Econometrics · October 11, 1991 Univariate [Blackorby and Donaldson (1978), Bourguignon (1979), Shorrocks (1980, 1984), Foster (1983)] and multidimensional [Kolm (1973, 1977), Atkinson and Bourguignon (1982), Ram (1982), Massoumi (1986, 1989)] measures of social welfare and economic ineq ... Full text Cite

Blood pressure and mortality risk in the elderly.

Journal Article American journal of epidemiology · September 1991 Blood pressure was assessed between 1981 and 1983 in all persons over age 65 years in three communities (East Boston, Massachusetts; New Haven, Connecticut; and Iowa and Washington countries, Iowa), and cause-specific mortality was monitored annually over ... Full text Cite

Cancer mortality, aging, and patterns of comorbidity in the United States: 1968 to 1986.

Journal Article J Gerontol · July 1991 Cancer is often reported as contributing to the risk of noncancer causes of death. The age variation of these reports was studied using U.S. data on all causes of death listed on death certificates for 1968 to 1986. The occurrence of cancer as a nonunderly ... Full text Link to item Cite

Analyses of black and white differentials in the age trajectory of mortality in two closed cohort studies.

Journal Article Statistics in medicine · July 1991 We examine the relationship of age to mortality in blacks and whites in two cohort studies, the 20-year follow-up of the Evans County, Georgia. Study population and the 25-year follow-up of the Charleston Heart Study population. We conducted analyses with ... Full text Cite

Cross-sectional estimates of active life expectancy for the U.S. elderly and oldest-old populations.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · May 1991 Estimates are made of active life expectancy for the U.S. elderly and oldest-old populations using data from the 1982 and 1984 National Long Term Care Surveys. In the calculation of active life expectancy a multivariate analysis of 27 measures of functioni ... Full text Cite

Rectangularization of the survival curve: implications of an ill-posed question.

Journal Article Journal of aging and health · May 1991 There has been considerable interest in the question of whether the human survival curve is becoming more rectangular as life expectancy in developed countries increases. However, despite the intuitive appeal of the rectangularization concept it has not be ... Full text Cite

Nursing home length of stay and spenddown in Connecticut, 1977-1986.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · April 1991 A study of lifetime nursing home use was conducted with data from Connecticut for a 9-year period, 1977-1986. By linking stays for individuals, we were able to make life table estimates of the total amount of time after age 65 expected to be spent by perso ... Full text Cite

Multivariate procedures to describe clinical staging of melanoma.

Journal Article Methods Inf Med · April 1991 Analyzing multivariate clinical data to identify subclasses of patients being treated for a specific disease may improve patient management and increase understanding of the behavior of disease under clinical conditions. In some cases, patients have been c ... Link to item Cite

Empirical Bayes Approaches to Multivariate Fuzzy Partitions.

Journal Article Multivariate behavioral research · April 1991 In describing high dimensional discrete response data, mathematical and statistical issues arise that require multivariate procedures that are not based on normal distributions, that is, the mathematical representation of high dimensional discrete response ... Full text Cite

National surveys and the health and functioning of the elderly: The effects of design and content

Journal Article Journal of the American Statistical Association · January 1, 1991 The rapid growth of the U.S. elderly (age 65+) and oldest-old (age 85+) populations, combined with their high per capita acute health and long-term care (LTC) service needs, raises concerns about existing health care payment systems. Adapting and designing ... Full text Cite

Grade of Membership generalizations and aging research.

Journal Article Experimental aging research · January 1991 The Grade of Membership (GOM) model is a general multivariate procedure for analyzing high dimensional discrete response data. It does this by estimating, using maximum likelihood principles, two types of parameters. One describes the probability that a pe ... Full text Cite

The dynamics of population aging: demography and policy analysis.

Journal Article The Milbank quarterly · January 1991 The dynamics of population aging will broadly shape future social and economic conditions in the United States and in many other developed countries. Although the quantitative dimension of population aging is easily characterized, the associated forces pro ... Full text Cite

Forecasting chronic disease risks in developing countries.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · December 1990 Declining fertility and infant mortality has caused the population in many developing countries to age. Population ageing can produce a rapid shift in the predominant public health problems from infant mortality and infectious diseases to chronic disease m ... Full text Cite

Changes in health service use and mortality among U.S. elderly in 1980-1986.

Journal Article Journal of aging and health · May 1990 Concern has emerged about the impact on quality of care of recent changes in Medicare reimbursement for acute hospital episodes (i.e., the introduction of the Prospective Payment System based on the Diagnosis Related Groups Reimbursement methodology). One ... Full text Cite

Medicaid spenddown in nursing homes.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · February 1990 This paper employs information from nationally representative surveys to examine the incidence and causes of Medicaid spenddown among disabled elderly persons. About 10% of nursing home discharges experience "asset spenddown," the process of converting fro ... Full text Cite

Recent changes in service use patterns of disabled Medicare beneficiaries.

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1990 An analysis was made of the pre- and post-patterns of Medicare Part A service use using the samples of the 1982 and 1984 National Long-Term Care Surveys linked to the Medicare Part A bill files and mortality reports. The analysis was conducted both for the ... Cite

Functionally and medically defined subgroups of nursing home populations.

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1990 The functional and health characteristics of nursing home residents in New York State using a multivariate classification procedure are examined in this article. This analysis suggested that these characteristics could be explained in terms of six dimensio ... Cite

Morbidity, disability, and long-term care of the elderly: implications for insurance financing.

Journal Article The Milbank quarterly · January 1990 A scarcity of empirical information to specify appropriate provisions and base rates for coverage has hindered the development of long-term-care (LTC) insurance. Data from three nationally representative surveys on the prevalence of morbidity and functiona ... Full text Cite

Black/white differences in health status and mortality among the elderly.

Journal Article Demography · November 1989 Grade of membership (GOM) representations are used to characterize and compare the health status of a very heterogeneous sample of blacks and whites in an elderly cohort of 2,806 noninstitutionalized men and women living in New Haven, Connecticut. They wer ... Full text Cite

Empirical Bayes procedures for stabilizing maps of U.S. cancer mortality rates.

Journal Article Journal of the American Statistical Association · September 1989 "The geographic mapping of age-standardized, cause-specific death rates is a powerful tool for identifying possible etiologic factors, because the spatial distribution of mortality risks can be examined for correlations with the spatial distribution of dis ... Full text Cite

The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments.

Journal Article Theoretical population biology · April 1989 This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological stat ... Full text Cite

Case-mix adjusted analyses of service utilization for a Medicaid health insuring organization in Philadelphia.

Journal Article Medical care · April 1989 Health Insuring Organizations (HIOs) are capitated plans that serve all of the Medicaid beneficiaries in a defined catchment area. While this approach to capitation eliminates the incentive to enroll only the healthiest beneficiaries in the area, it does n ... Full text Cite

Controlling risk in capitation payment. Multivariate definitions of risk groups.

Journal Article Medical care · March 1989 There are a number of different reimbursement strategies proposed for health maintenance organization (HMO) style health care providers. Each of those strategies is designed to leave the provider at risk to provide incentives for him to increase the effici ... Full text Cite

The effect of nursing home use on Medicaid eligibility.

Journal Article The Gerontologist · February 1989 Presented are results of a descriptive analysis of the effects of nursing home use on Medicaid eligibility status. Data from the 1982 and 1984 National Long-Term Care Surveys were used to track a cohort of disabled elderly persons residing in the community ... Full text Cite

Life-Style Risk Factors

Journal Article The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science · January 1, 1989 This article examines the evidence for two propositions: that health and ability to function can often be sustained into advanced old age through interventions that (1) control risk factors among people already old and (2) improve lifelong health behaviors ... Full text Cite

A statistical analysis of the classification of depression in a mixed community and clinical sample.

Journal Article J Affect Disord · 1989 Depressive symptoms in three samples are assessed using grade-of-membership analysis to clarify the distribution of depressive symptoms across traditional affective diagnoses. The technique is used to examine whether depressive symptoms and symptoms freque ... Full text Link to item Cite

Cost effectiveness of home and community-based care.

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1989 Medicaid section 2176 waivers allow States to provide home and community-based care to Medicaid eligibles who, but for these services, would enter Medicaid-funded nursing homes. One of the conditions required by Congress for granting these waivers is that ... Cite

Epidemiological, demographic, and social correlates of disability among the elderly.

Journal Article The Milbank quarterly · January 1989 The magnitude and quality of the problem of disability for the United States elderly population was analyzed in a series of projections. An analysis of the impact of disability on this population is more difficult than for other disabled groups because pre ... Full text Cite

Grade of Membership Analysis of Depression-Related Psychiatric Disorders

Journal Article Sociological Methods & Research · January 1, 1989 Information on 7,184 respondents of the Duke University and Johns Hopkins University Epidemiologic Catchment Areas (ECA) studies were analyzed using a fuzzy set classification procedure called Grade of Membership (GoM) analysis. A formal description of GoM ... Full text Cite

Depressive symptoms and depressive diagnoses in a community population. Use of a new procedure for analysis of psychiatric classification.

Journal Article Arch Gen Psychiatry · December 1988 A multivariate classification technique was used to examine whether depressive symptoms and symptoms frequently associated with depressive disorders would cluster into recognizable syndromes that parallel traditional DSM-III psychiatric diagnoses. An analy ... Full text Link to item Cite

Measurements of health and disease, a transitional perspective.

Journal Article Vital and health statistics. Ser. 4, Documents and committee reports · December 1988 Cite

Importance of electrocardiography for coronary risk factor surveys.

Journal Article Lancet (London, England) · September 1988 Full text Cite

A longitudinal study of functional change and mortality in the United States.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · September 1988 Studies of functional impairments in the U.S. elderly population have tended to rely on prevalence estimates from nationally representative health and institutional surveys. These prevalence estimates generally show higher rates of disability for females t ... Full text Cite

Trends in US suicide mortality rates 1968 to 1982: race and sex differences in age, period and cohort components.

Journal Article Int J Epidemiol · June 1988 Interest has recently emerged in increases in suicide among US teenagers. Nonetheless suicide remains one of the major causes of death among the fastest growing components of the US population--the elderly. We examine the trends in US age-specific suicide ... Full text Link to item Cite

Workshop: Forecasting the care needs of the elderly: Methodology and limitations

Journal Article Public Health Reports · January 1, 1988 Cite

Classification Model

Journal Article Bulletin de M�thodologie Sociologique · January 1, 1988 The Discrete GOM Model at a conceptual level is a model with enormous theoretical appeal as a psychometric model. While it was initially developed as a solution to problems posed in medical classification, social scientists should be quick to realize its m ... Full text Cite

Models of the interaction of mortality and the evolution of risk factor distribution: a general stochastic process formulation.

Journal Article Statistics in medicine · January 1988 Generally analyses of longitudinal studies of chronic disease risks do not directly model the change with time of risk factor values and the interactions of those changes with risk levels. Failure to account for such process characteristics can lead to inc ... Full text Cite

Estimating hidden morbidity via its effect on mortality and disability.

Journal Article Statistics in medicine · January 1988 The applicability of the theory of partially observed finite-state Markov processes to the study of disease, morbidity, and disability is explored. A method is developed for the continuous updating of parameter estimates over time in longitudinal studies a ... Full text Cite

Planning long-term care for heterogeneous older populations.

Journal Article Annual review of gerontology & geriatrics · January 1988 Cite

The global impact of noncommunicable diseases: estimates and projections.

Journal Article World health statistics quarterly. Rapport trimestriel de statistiques sanitaires mondiales · January 1988 With the aging of populations in developing countries there is both a demographic and an epidemiological transition which affects the impact of chronic degenerative diseases on the health status of the populations. Demographic transition takes place in cou ... Cite

Racial differences in acute lymphocytic leukemia mortality and incidence trends.

Journal Article Journal of clinical epidemiology · January 1988 Mortality and morbidity rates for childhood leukemia are examined with reference to time trends and racial differences. Prior to 1964, white and nonwhite children had very different acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) mortality rates. With the advent of succe ... Full text Cite

Forecasting health status changes in an aging U.S. population: Assessment of the current status and some proposals

Journal Article Climatic Change · August 1, 1987 Much interest has been recently focused on forecasting population health changes such as population aging and life expectancy increases at advanced ages, qualitative changes in health and survival, changes in federal reimbursement systems, and the need to ... Full text Cite

Statistically adjusted estimates of geographic mortality profiles.

Journal Article Journal of the National Cancer Institute · May 1987 The spatial variation of site-specific cancer mortality rates at the county or state economic area level can provide a) insights into possible etiologic factors and b) the basis for more detailed epidemiologic studies. One difficulty with such studies, esp ... Cite

Morbidity and disability patterns in four developing nations: Their implications for social and economic integration of the elderly.

Journal Article Journal of cross-cultural gerontology · April 1987 A major factor in the increased need for health and long term care services for the elderly at advanced ages is the higher prevalence of multiple chronic diseases and functional impairments at those ages. The association of chronic morbidity and disability ... Full text Cite

Suicide in middle age and later life: sex and race specific life table and cohort analyses.

Journal Article J Gerontol · March 1987 Cross-temporal data on suicide for the period 1962 to 1981 from the National Center for Health Statistics were analyzed. These data were used to estimate period and cohort suicide rates for the four middle-aged and elderly groups (ages 45 to 64, 65 to 74, ... Full text Link to item Cite

The linkage of health status changes and disability.

Journal Article Comprehensive gerontology. Section A, Clinical and laboratory sciences · February 1987 Forecasting health and functional status changes in elderly populations is a difficult task because forecasting must describe the linkage of chronic morbidity, and its progression, with different levels and types of disability. In this paper we present a m ... Cite

Debilitation's aftermath: stochastic process models of mortality.

Journal Article Mathematical population studies · January 1987 A stochastic differential equation model is developed to clarify the interaction of debilitation, recuperation, selection, and aging. The model yields various insights about the lingering mortality consequences of disasters such as wars, famines, and epid ... Full text Cite

Malignant melanoma in the elderly.

Journal Article J Clin Oncol · January 1987 Advancing age is associated with poorer prognosis in malignant melanoma. We studied 3,872 cases of malignant melanoma to evaluate whether the effect of age could be analyzed relative to sex, tumor depth, primary site, and other clinical and pathologic vari ... Full text Link to item Cite

A study of somatization disorder in a community population utilizing grade of membership analysis.

Journal Article Psychiatr Dev · 1987 A new multivariate analytical technique for the analysis of medical classification, Grade of Membership analysis, is utilized to examine somatization disorder in a community population. The authors examine whether somatic symptoms will cluster into a clini ... Link to item Cite

A multidimensional approach to case mix for home health services.

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1987 Developing a case-mix methodology for home health services is more difficult than developing one for hospitalization and acute health services, because the determinants of need for home health care are more complex and because of the difficulty in defining ... Cite

Health differentials between blacks and whites: recent trends in mortality and morbidity.

Journal Article The Milbank quarterly · January 1987 Black Americans continue to have large numbers of premature and excess deaths, measured against white experience, from seven major causes. Major differences in chronic disease, disability and case fatality rates persist despite similarities in the amount o ... Full text Cite

Recent trends in multiple-caused mortality 1968 to 1982: Age and cohort components

Journal Article Population Research and Policy Review · January 1, 1987 Declines in mortality at advanced ages have been observed recently in the United States. These declines have been related to a reduction in the risk of major circulatory diseases, such as stroke and heart disease. In this paper we examine the contribution ... Full text Cite

Conceptual and measurement issues in assessing disability cross-nationally: Analysis of a WHO-sponsored survey of the disablement process in Indonesia.

Journal Article Journal of cross-cultural gerontology · December 1986 The World Health Organization, in collaboration with the Indonesian Institute of Health Research and Development, conducted a survey of disability in 14 of 24 Indonesian provinces. This survey was designed to assess the validity of the disablement process ... Full text Cite

Breast cancer in the elderly. Current patterns of care.

Journal Article J Am Geriatr Soc · September 1986 To evaluate age-related differences in the current patterns of presentation and clinical management of breast cancer patients, the authors reviewed 1795 patients referred to a university hospital for their initial treatment. No age-related differences were ... Full text Link to item Cite

Alternative models for the heterogeneity of mortality risks among the aged.

Journal Article Journal of the American Statistical Association · September 1986 The authors examine how sensitive the estimates of heterogeneity in the mortality risks in a population are to the choices of two types of function, "one describing the age-specific rate of increase of mortality risks for individuals and the other describi ... Full text Cite

Past and future life expectancy increases at later ages: their implications for the linkage of chronic morbidity, disability, and mortality.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · September 1986 Recently life expectancy increases have been noted at advanced ages in the United States. This means a more rapid growth of the elderly U.S. population in general, and of the "oldest-old" population in particular. Thus it is of considerable social and heal ... Full text Cite

Comparison of temporal changes in U.S. and Swedish lung cancer, 1950-51 to 1981-82.

Journal Article Journal of the National Cancer Institute · September 1986 A comparison was made of temporal changes in lung cancer risk for the U.S. white and Swedish populations from 1950-51 to 1981-82 with the use of both life-table- and cohort-specific proportional hazard models to illustrate different features of the time se ... Full text Cite

Suicide in late life. Review and commentary.

Journal Article J Am Geriatr Soc · July 1986 Increasing attention has been directed to recent increases in suicide rates for children, adolescents, and young adults. Nevertheless, persons 65 years and older continue to commit suicide at a higher rate than any other age group in the United States. In ... Full text Link to item Cite

Patterns of intellectual development in later life.

Journal Article J Gerontol · July 1986 Temporal changes in 16 measures of cognitive and intellectual functioning (11 Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale subtests, 3 Wechsler Memory Test subscales, 2 measures of reaction time) were studied in the full data set from the First Duke Longitudinal Stud ... Full text Link to item Cite

Compartment model approaches for estimating the parameters of a chronic disease process under changing risk factor exposures.

Journal Article Computers and biomedical research, an international journal · April 1986 Compartment model approaches have been proposed for the analysis of the age incidence of specific types of cancer. These models represented the age increases in incidence as the result of a compound hazard function where individual level risks were describ ... Full text Cite

A multivariate approach for classifying hospitals and computing blended payment rates.

Journal Article Medical care · April 1986 Prospective payment for inpatient hospital care is based on the ideal that hospitals that produce similar outputs, as measured by the types of cases the hospital treats, should be paid similar prices. However, similar output is a multidimensional concept. ... Full text Cite

Cause specific mortality patterns among the oldest old: multiple cause of death trends 1968 to 1980.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · March 1986 Trends in sex specific mortality from six conditions (hip fracture, septicemia, pneumonia, cancer, heart disease, and stroke) were examined for the period 1968 to 1980 to determine if recent increases in life expectancy at advanced ages were associated wit ... Full text Cite

Chronic disease evolution and human aging: A general model for assessing the impact of chronic disease in human populations

Journal Article Mathematical Modelling · January 1, 1986 A general model of the effects of physiological aging changes and systematic selection due to death or to morbid changes in a human population is presented. Parameter estimation is conducted on large longitudinal data bases. Assuming the availability of su ... Full text Cite

Applications of the grade of membership technique to event history analysis: Extensions to multivariate unobserved heterogeneity

Journal Article Mathematical Modelling · January 1, 1986 Analyses of the event histories of social and service utilization processes are often difficult because of a lack of adequate theory to specify the distributional form of any latent heterogeneity [J. Heckman and B. Singer, The identifiability of the propor ... Full text Cite

Evaluating the effects of observed and unobserved diffusion processes in survival analysis of longitudinal data

Journal Article Mathematical Modelling · January 1, 1986 In biostatistical, epidemiological and demographic studies of human survival it is often necessary to consider the dynamics of physiological processes and their influences on observed mortality rates. The parameters of a stochastic covariate process can be ... Full text Cite

Dependent competing risks: a stochastic process model.

Journal Article Journal of mathematical biology · January 1986 Analyses of human mortality data classified according to cause of death frequently are based on competing risk theory. In particular, the times to death for different causes often are assumed to be independent. In this paper, a competing risk model with a ... Full text Cite

The complexity of chronic disease at later ages: practical implications for prospective payment and data collection.

Journal Article Inquiry : a journal of medical care organization, provision and financing · January 1986 The diagnosis related groups system developed to pay for Medicare services under prospective payment has certain built-in constraints, owing to limitations in the data available at the time. To identify additional dimensions potentially relevant to case mi ... Cite

Psychiatric disorders. A rural/urban comparison.

Journal Article Arch Gen Psychiatry · July 1985 We studied rural/urban differences in the prevalence of nine psychiatric disorders from a community survey (part of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area Program) of 3,921 adults living in the Piedmont of North Carolina. Crude comparisons disclosed that major d ... Full text Link to item Cite

U.S. cancer mortality 1950-1978: a strategy for analyzing spatial and temporal patterns.

Journal Article Environmental health perspectives · May 1985 There are a number of technical and statistical problems in monitoring the temporal and spatial variation of local area death rates in the United States for evidence of systematically elevated risks. An analytic strategy is proposed to reduce one of the ma ... Full text Cite

Mortality and aging in a heterogeneous population: a stochastic process model with observed and unobserved variables.

Journal Article Theoretical population biology · April 1985 Various multivariate stochastic process models have been developed to represent human physiological aging and mortality. These efforts are extended by considering the effects of observed and unobserved state variables on the age trajectory of physiological ... Full text Cite

Strategies for collating diverse scientific evidence in the analysis of population health characteristics: Bioactuarial models of chronic disease mortality for the elderly

Journal Article Sociological Methods & Research · January 1, 1985 The analysis of many social and health policy issues requires the use of multiple data sources from a diverse body of scientific and technical studies. Although individual data sets are rigorously analyzed, integration of the results of these analyses to r ... Full text Cite

The black/white mortality crossover: investigation in a community-based study.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · January 1985 The black/white mortality crossover at about age 75, a result of lower white mortality rates at younger ages and lower black rates at the oldest ages, has been observed in U.S. vital statistics since 1900. Though a persistant observation in such data, its ... Full text Cite

Home care expenses for the disabled elderly.

Journal Article Health care financing review · January 1985 This article presents descriptive statistics from the 1982 Long-Term Care Survey on noninstitutionalized elderly Americans with limitations in activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL). The focus of this article is ... Cite

An analysis of the heterogeneity of U.S. nursing home patients.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · January 1985 Research has shown that the nursing home patient population is quite heterogeneous in terms of both individual patient characteristics and service needs. Furthermore, existing administrative classifications do a poor job of representing this heterogeneity. ... Full text Cite

The participant effect: mortality in a community-based study compared to vital statistics.

Journal Article Journal of chronic diseases · January 1985 The 20-year mortality experience of the community-based Evans County Heart Study population is compared to local, regional and national vital statistics. Deficit mortality occurred in the study population at younger ages while at older ages mortality was s ... Full text Cite

Dynamics of health changes in the oldest old: new perspectives and evidence.

Journal Article The Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly. Health and society · January 1985 Improvement in survival at advanced ages suggests that important changes in health and the natural history of disease processes may be occurring concurrently. a general model based upon cohort and life-course perspectives describes the changing relation of ... Full text Cite

Health status and service needs of the oldest old: current patterns and future trends.

Journal Article The Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly. Health and society · January 1985 The costs--economic and social--of projected increased use of long-term care services by the oldest old will be borne by third-party payers and by their families, who already supply the bulk of personal care services in the community. However, use of healt ... Full text Cite

Demographic challenges for socioeconomic planning.

Journal Article Socio-economic planning sciences · January 1985 Full text Cite

The use of Grade of Membership analysis to evaluate and modify diagnosis-related groups.

Journal Article Medical care · December 1984 A classification methodology is presented that can be used to evaluate the heterogeneity of reimbursement categories and service groups in multivariate terms. This methodology, called Grade of Membership analysis, has several properties that are particular ... Full text Cite

"Death and taxes": a contrary view.

Journal Article Population today · November 1984 Cite

Compression of mortality: myth or reality?

Journal Article The Gerontologist · August 1984 Full text Cite

Projecting chronic disease prevalence.

Journal Article Medical care · June 1984 Health and long-term care planning for an aging population is an important and necessary function for both the public and private sector. Unfortunately, efforts at planning have often been limited by difficulties in making estimates and forecasts of chroni ... Full text Cite

CVD mortality, 1968-1978: observations and implications.

Journal Article Stroke · May 1984 U.S. multiple cause of death data were examined for the period 1968-1978. Specifically, the role of cerebrovascular disease mortality as an underlying and associated cause of death was studied. The number of deaths where cerebrovascular disease was cited a ... Full text Cite

Life table methods for assessing the dynamics of U.S. nursing home utilization: 1976-1977.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · January 1984 One likely consequence of the aging of the U.S. population is the growth of the number of persons in nursing homes. As the numbers of persons in nursing homes increase so will the amount of resources required to keep them in those homes. This will make it ... Full text Cite

Mortality patterns in developed countries.

Journal Article Comparative social research · January 1984 The implications of recent demographic trends in developed countries are considered. The emphasis is on the increase in life expectancy, and particularly in the rate of growth of the numbers of the very old (those aged 85 and over). "To evaluate the impa ... Cite

Methods and issues in the projection of population health status.

Journal Article World health statistics quarterly. Rapport trimestriel de statistiques sanitaires mondiales · January 1984 The discussion of strategies for forecasting health status changes in human populations often becomes immersed in efforts to utilize simple projection strategies that will produce crude projections. The motivation behind this effort is that simple projecti ... Cite

The length-of-stay pattern of nursing home admissions.

Journal Article Medical care · December 1983 The length of stay (LOS) pattern of nursing home admissions has not been directly measured because the long duration of stay of some patients (e.g., 25% of persons admitted reside in homes for longer than 1 year) makes it impractical to follow specific adm ... Full text Cite

Multiple cause models of disease dependency

Journal Article Scandinavian Actuarial Journal · October 1, 1983 Stochastic compartment model strategies are applied to the estimation of the transition rates for primary and secondary transitions when only information on the medical conditions present at the time of death is available. It is shown that these estimates ... Full text Cite

A mathematical model of the physiological dynamics of aging and correlated mortality selection: II. Application to the Duke Longitudinal Study.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · July 1983 Given that mortality risks at advanced ages (over 85) due to circulatory diseases have decreased recently and that it is likely that the effects of risk factors change with age, it is important to study the age dynamics of circulatory disease and circulato ... Full text Cite

A mathematical model of the physiological dynamics of aging and correlated mortality selection. I. Theoretical development and critiques.

Journal Article Journal of gerontology · July 1983 A number of theoretical models of aging and human mortality have been proposed. Only a few of these theoretical models, however, have been translated into statistical procedures and applied to data. In this paper we outline a theoretical model of human agi ... Full text Cite

Letters to the editor

Journal Article International Journal of Epidemiology · March 1, 1983 Full text Cite

The contribution of hypertension to mortality in the US: 1968, 1977.

Journal Article American journal of public health · February 1983 The contribution of hypertension to total mortality in the United States in 1968 and 1977 is assessed through multiple cause death rates for all mentions of hypertension and the death certificate prevalence of hypertension. Age-adjusted declines in the hyp ... Full text Cite

The Economic Impact of Health Policy Interventions

Journal Article Risk Analysis · January 1, 1983 The rapid aging of the U.S. population, increases in the absolute prevalence of chronic diseases, and the associated rise in the proportion of the GNP expended on medical care all indicate the need for methods to accurately forecast future health care expe ... Full text Cite

Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977.

Journal Article Demography · November 1982 An analysis is made of the mortality trends over the period 1968 to 1977 indicated by two types of cause-specific mortality data. The first type of data is "underlying cause" of death data--the data heretofore used in national vital statistics reports on c ... Full text Cite

A new procedure for analysis of medical classification.

Journal Article Methods of information in medicine · October 1982 Cite

A population-based model of respiratory cancer incidence, progression, diagnosis, treatment, and mortality.

Journal Article Computers and biomedical research, an international journal · August 1982 Full text Cite

The use of mortality time series data to produce hypothetical morbidity distributions and projects mortality trends.

Journal Article Demography · May 1982 It is difficult to obtain direct empirical estimates of chronic disease prevalence in the U.S. population. The available estimates are usually derived from epidemiological studies of selected populations. In this paper we present strategies for estimating ... Full text Cite

Strategies for analysing ecological health data: models of the biological risk of individuals.

Journal Article Statistics in medicine · April 1982 Frequently, the analysis of environmental health hazards using ecological data does not involve explicit recognition of the difficulties in translating health effects expressed in the aggregate to the health risks of individuals. We discuss these difficult ... Full text Cite

A cohort analysis of U.S. stomach cancer mortality 1950-1977.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · March 1982 Models of human carcinogenesis, such as the multi-stage model of Armitage and Doll, are designed to explain the age increase in the incidence of cancers in individuals. As a consequence, analyses of population level age-specific death rates via such models ... Full text Cite

Bioactuarial models of national mortality time series data.

Journal Article Health care financing review · March 1982 The incidence and prevalence of chronic degenerative disease in America's elderly population are important determinants of the need for long-term care health services. Though a wide range of data on disease incidence and prevalence is available from a vari ... Cite

Mortality data analysis using a multiple-cause approach.

Journal Article JAMA · February 1982 Death certificates are the primary source for information used to define general mortality patterns in the United States. Analyses of mortality data generally are restricted to one of the conditions listed on the certificate--the underlying cause of dealth ... Full text Cite

Markov Network Analysis: suggestions for innovations in covariance structure analysis.

Journal Article Exp Aging Res · 1982 Studies of aging offer special methodological challenges to the researcher in that he must often examine the change of multiple correlated variables over time. We present a set of procedures that are specifically designed to model change in such multivaria ... Full text Link to item Cite

Changing concepts of morbidity and mortality in the elderly population.

Journal Article The Milbank Memorial Fund quarterly. Health and society · January 1982 Full text Cite

An Analysis of Changes in the Risk of Mortality from Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease, 1968‐1977

Journal Article Risk Analysis · January 1, 1982 Nonlinear hazard models are used to examine temporal trends in the age‐specific mortality risks of chronic obstructive lung diseases for the U.S. population. These hazard functions are fit to age‐specific mortality rates for 1968 and 1977 for four race/sex ... Full text Cite

A dynamic analysis of chronic disease development: a study of sex specific changes in coronary heart disease incidence and risk factors in Framingham.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · December 1981 An analysis of sex differentials in the dynamics of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the Framingham study is conducted using a methodology designed process which aids in the interpretation of the longitudinal results. This methodology permits the analysis o ... Full text Cite

Methods for comparing the mortality experience of heterogeneous populations.

Journal Article Demography · August 1981 Methods are presented which produce Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of the degree of heterogeneity in individual mortality risks under a variety of assumptions about the age trajectory of those mortality risks. With these estimates of the degree of popu ... Full text Cite

A multiple cause of death analysis of hypertension-related mortality in North Carolina, 1968-1977.

Journal Article American journal of public health · August 1981 In this paper, records of all medical conditions on death certificates are used to evaluate hypertension-related mortality in North Carolina over the decade 1968-1977. Use of both an inclusive hypertension recode category and multiple cause data resulted i ... Full text Cite

A variance components approach to categorical data models with heterogeneous cell populations: analysis of spatial gradients in lung cancer mortality rates in North Carolina counties.

Journal Article Biometrics · June 1981 A mixed categorical-continuous variable model is proposed for the analysis of mortality rates. This model differs from other available models, such as weighted least squares and loglinear models, in that the within-cell populations are assumed to be hetero ... Full text Cite

Methods for the analysis of mortality risks across heterogeneous small populations: examination of space-time gradients in cancer mortality in North Carolina counties 1970-75.

Journal Article Demography · May 1981 A method of analyzing mortality rates in heterogeneous populations is presented. This method, appropriate for the investigation of mortality rates in small geographic areas (e.g., counties) where the forces of mobility operate to selectively "package" pers ... Full text Cite

Effects of smoking and of induced abortion on pregnancy outcome.

Journal Article IPPF medical bulletin · April 1981 Cite

Mortality model based on delays in progression of chronic diseases: alternative to cause elimination model.

Journal Article Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974) · November 1980 For the analysis of the impact of major chronic diseases on a population, a life table model is proposed in which the age at death due to specific cause (chronic disease) is postponed. Even though many of the major causes of death related to intrinsic agin ... Cite

Population impact of mortality reduction: the effects of elimination of major causes of death on the 'saved' population.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · June 1980 In this paper we examine the effects on life expectancy of elimination of 4 major causes of death. Methodologically, we compare the results of cause elimination under assumptions of pattern of failure elimination and assumptions of underlying cause elimina ... Full text Cite

Mortality of the chronically impaired.

Journal Article Demography · May 1980 An analysis of the effects of diabetes and generalized atherosclerosis on death due to ischemic heart disease or stroke was conducted using multiple cause mortality statistics. Specifically, all U.S. deaths in 1969 were classified into two groups on the ba ... Full text Cite

Estimates of U.S. multiple cause life tables.

Journal Article Demography · February 1980 Cause elimination life tables estimated from multiple cause of death data for four race/sex groups are presented for the U.S. population in 1969. These "multiple cause" life tables are then compared to cause elimination life tables where the mortality risk ... Full text Cite

A two-disease model of female breast cancer: mortality in 1969 among white females in the United States.

Journal Article Journal of the National Cancer Institute · January 1980 A mathematical model of the age distribution of breast cancer mortality was developed on the basis of the two-disease theory of breast cancer incidence. The model included representations of the time from tumor initiation to death, the competing risk effec ... Cite

A stochastic compartment model of stomach cancer with correlated waiting time distributions.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · September 1979 The incidence and growth rate of stomach cancer in the US population is modelled, for each sex, as a partially observed, discrete state stochastic process. Explicit evaluation of the transition rates between the states of the model is made possible by iden ... Full text Cite

Longitudinal analysis of the dynamics and risk of coronary heart disease in the Framingham Study.

Journal Article Biometrics · September 1979 Statistical methods designed specifically for the analysis of chronic disease incidence and progression in longitudinal studies are presented. These method model the risk of acute phases of chronic disease separately from the temporal change in risk variab ... Full text Cite

The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality.

Journal Article Demography · August 1979 Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tabl ... Full text Cite

Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies.

Journal Article Demography · May 1979 A study is made of the effects of associated causes of death, and of dependency among causes of death, by observing the relative importance of one cause of death when another is eliminated under various competing risk models. Two disease pairs, cancer and ... Full text Cite

Changes in the Coincidence of the Boundaries and Populations of Central Cities

Journal Article Social Forces · March 1, 1979 Several factors are investigated that affect the use of annexation by central cities of Urbanized Areas to retain decentralized populations. A multi-variate model of the responses of central cities to over- and underboundedness is presented and evaluated. ... Full text Cite

A linear models application of competing risks to multiple causes of death.

Journal Article Biometrics · December 1978 An analysis is performed to ascertain the joint incidence of two causes of death, acute myocardial infarct and stroke, for the deaths of residents of Massachusetts and North Carolina in 1969. To assay their association an explicit biological model of the n ... Full text Cite

Compartment model approach to the estimation of tumor incidence and growth: investigation of a model of cancer latency.

Journal Article Biometrics · September 1978 Consideration is made of the problems involved in determining the effects of a chronic disease process, such as stomach cancer, on the observed mortality of the U.S. population. Specifically, since the time of initiation of tumor growth is unknown and the ... Full text Cite

An extension of the sign test for replicated measurements.

Journal Article Biometrics · September 1977 An extension of the sign test is proposed for the case where there are paired groups or sets of replicated measurements; the individual measurements are unpaired between groups. A class of methods is investigated where the values of the groups of replicate ... Full text Cite

The structure of urban mortality. A methodological study of Hannover, Germany. Part II.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · September 1977 An extension is made of a prior analysis of the relation of density to cause-specific mortality in small areas of Hannover, Germany. The analysis was designed to impose statistical controls for certain socio-demographic characteristics of these small areas ... Full text Cite

The structure of urban mortality. A methodological study of Hannover, Germany. Part I.

Journal Article International journal of epidemiology · September 1977 An analysis is made of the association between density factors and the profile of cause specific death rates in small areas (Bezirke) of Hannover, Germany, in 1968-69. Evaluation of urban ecological methods and logic is done to determine the plausibility o ... Full text Cite

A random-walk model of human mortality and aging.

Journal Article Theoretical population biology · February 1977 Full text Cite

Life table techniques for multiple-cause mortality.

Journal Article Demography · November 1976 A lethal defect-wear model of mortality is presented which rationalizes the assumption of independent risks when death may be due to more than a single condition. Under this model, it is shown how competing risk theory and standard categorical data methods ... Full text Cite

Ageism compared to racism and sexism.

Journal Article J Gerontol · July 1973 Full text Link to item Cite