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Projecting chronic disease prevalence.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Manton, KG; Liu, K
Published in: Medical care
June 1984

Health and long-term care planning for an aging population is an important and necessary function for both the public and private sector. Unfortunately, efforts at planning have often been limited by difficulties in making estimates and forecasts of chronic disease prevalence in the population. These difficulties are a direct result of the natural history of chronic diseases that normally have long presymptomatic stages. Because of this characteristic, predictions of the magnitude of chronic disease prevalence in the United States often fail to reflect an important dimension of the health state of the population: that there is a sizeable proportion of chronic disease prevalence and risk existing in the population in a preclinical phase. The authors present a strategy for obtaining more complete estimates of chronic disease prevalence. This approach entails the creation of an illness--death model representing the natural history of individual chronic diseases and the application of the model to infer morbidity incidence and prevalence patterns from national mortality statistics. They illustrate the approach with an example of lung cancer and discuss the applications of the outputs of the modeling strategy for health care resource planning.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

Medical care

DOI

EISSN

1537-1948

ISSN

0025-7079

Publication Date

June 1984

Volume

22

Issue

6

Start / End Page

511 / 526

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Statistics as Topic
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Lung Neoplasms
  • Infant
  • Humans
  • Health Policy & Services
  • Forecasting
 

Citation

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ICMJE
MLA
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Manton, K. G., & Liu, K. (1984). Projecting chronic disease prevalence. Medical Care, 22(6), 511–526. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-198406000-00002
Manton, K. G., and K. Liu. “Projecting chronic disease prevalence.Medical Care 22, no. 6 (June 1984): 511–26. https://doi.org/10.1097/00005650-198406000-00002.
Manton KG, Liu K. Projecting chronic disease prevalence. Medical care. 1984 Jun;22(6):511–26.
Manton, K. G., and K. Liu. “Projecting chronic disease prevalence.Medical Care, vol. 22, no. 6, June 1984, pp. 511–26. Epmc, doi:10.1097/00005650-198406000-00002.
Manton KG, Liu K. Projecting chronic disease prevalence. Medical care. 1984 Jun;22(6):511–526.

Published In

Medical care

DOI

EISSN

1537-1948

ISSN

0025-7079

Publication Date

June 1984

Volume

22

Issue

6

Start / End Page

511 / 526

Related Subject Headings

  • United States
  • Statistics as Topic
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Middle Aged
  • Male
  • Lung Neoplasms
  • Infant
  • Humans
  • Health Policy & Services
  • Forecasting