Comparison of temporal changes in U.S. and Swedish lung cancer, 1950-51 to 1981-82.

A comparison was made of temporal changes in lung cancer risk for the U.S. white and Swedish populations from 1950-51 to 1981-82 with the use of both life-table- and cohort-specific proportional hazard models to illustrate different features of the time series. Marked differences were noted for the two populations; Swedish lung cancer risks were generally lower than those in the United States. Sex-specific analyses were conducted that showed that Swedish males had a mortality rate roughly half that for U.S. males over the entire period. In contrast, U.S. white female mortality rates, though roughly equal to those for Swedish females in 1950-51, experienced a relatively more rapid increase; their rates were double the Swedish rates by 1980. The factors contributing to these patterns, such as marked cohort differences in risk, are identified by the various stages of analysis.

Duke Scholars

Author Kenneth G. Manton Trinity College of Arts & Sciences