Labor force participation and human capital increases in an aging population and implications for U.S. research investment.

The proportion of the United States labor force >/=65 years of age is projected to increase between 2004 and 2014 by the passing of age 65 of the large post-World War II baby boom cohorts starting in 2010 and their greater longevity, income, education, and health [Toossi M (2005) Mon Labor Rev 128(11):25-44]. The aging of the U.S. labor force will continue to at least 2034, when the largest of the baby boom cohorts reaches age 70. Thus, the average health and functional capacity of persons age 65+ must improve for sufficient numbers of elderly persons to be physically and cognitively capable of work. This will require greater investments in research, public health, and health care. We examine how disability declines and improved health may increase human capital at later ages and stimulate the growth of gross domestic product and national wealth.

Duke Scholars

Author Kenneth G. Manton Trinity College of Arts & Sciences

Author Xi-Liang Gu