Overview
Mark Borsuk’s research concerns the development and application of mathematical models for integrating scientific information on natural, technical, and social systems. He is a widely-cited expert in Bayesian network modeling with regular application to environmental and human health regulation and decision making. He is also the originator of novel approaches to climate change assessment, combining risk analysis, game theory, and agent-based modeling. Borsuk’s highly collaborative research has been funded by NSF, EPA, NIH, NIEHS and USFS, and he has authored or co-authored 75 peer-reviewed journal publications and 6 book chapters.
Borsuk received the Chauncey Starr Distinguished Young Risk Analyst Award from the Society for Risk Analysis in 2013 and the Early Career Research Excellence Award from the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society in 2008. Before joining the Duke faculty, Dr. Borsuk was a member of the Dartmouth College faculty for 10 years where he held an appointment in the Thayer School of Engineering. Dr. Borsuk received a B.S.E. in Civil Engineering and Operations Research from Princeton University, an M.S. in Statistics and Decision Sciences from Duke University, and a Ph.D. in Environmental Science and Policy from Duke University. He did his post-doctoral training in the Department of Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment, and Modelling (SIAM) at the Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), where he advanced to head of the Decision Analysis and Integrated Assessment group.
As part of his appointment at Duke, Dr. Borsuk directs a new interdisciplinary research and teaching initiative in risk, uncertainty, optimization and decision-making.
Current Appointments & Affiliations
Recent Publications
Practical Paths to Risk-Risk Analysis of Solar Radiation Modification
Journal Article Oxford Open Climate Change · 2025 Link to item CiteLocal land-use decisions drive losses in river biological integrity to 2099: Using machine learning to disentangle interacting drivers of ecological change in policy forecasts
Journal Article Meteorological Applications · January 1, 2025 Climate and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change each threaten the health of rivers. Rising temperatures, changes in rainfall and runoff, and other perturbations, will all impact rivers' physical, biological, and chemical characteristics over the next century ... Full text CiteMulti-Risk Governance of Solar Radiation Modification
Journal Article European Journal of Risk Regulation · 2025 Link to item CiteRecent Grants
IUCRC Phase I Duke University: Center for Innovation in Risk-analysis for Climate Adaption and Decision-making (CIRCAD)
ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Science Foundation · 2025 - 2030Model-based Tracking and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services (MoTIVES) for Military Base Land-Use and Land-Management Decisions
ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by Strategic Environmental Research & Development Program · 2022 - 2027Bayesian Enhancement of Flood Risk Management Depth-Damage Modeling
ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by Army Corps of Engineers · 2025 - 2026View All Grants