Mark Edward Borsuk | Scholars@Duke

Mark Edward Borsuk
Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Mark Borsuk’s research concerns the development and application of mathematical models for integrating scientific information on natural, technical, and social systems. He is a widely-cited expert in Bayesian network modeling with regular application to environmental and human health regulation and decision making. He is also the originator of novel approaches to climate change assessment, combining risk analysis, game theory, and agent-based modeling. Borsuk’s highly collaborative research has been funded by NSF, EPA, NIH, NIEHS and USFS, and he has authored or co-authored 75 peer-reviewed journal publications and 6 book chapters.

Borsuk received the Chauncey Starr Distinguished Young Risk Analyst Award from the Society for Risk Analysis in 2013 and the Early Career Research Excellence Award from the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society in 2008. Before joining the Duke faculty, Dr. Borsuk was a member of the Dartmouth College faculty for 10 years where he held an appointment in the Thayer School of Engineering. Dr. Borsuk received a B.S.E. in Civil Engineering and Operations Research from Princeton University, an M.S. in Statistics and Decision Sciences from Duke University, and a Ph.D. in Environmental Science and Policy from Duke University. He did his post-doctoral training in the Department of Systems Analysis, Integrated Assessment, and Modelling (SIAM) at the Swiss Federal Institute for Aquatic Science and Technology (EAWAG), where he advanced to head of the Decision Analysis and Integrated Assessment group.

As part of his appointment at Duke, Dr. Borsuk directs a new interdisciplinary research and teaching initiative in risk, uncertainty, optimization and decision-making.

Current Appointments and Affiliations

Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Pratt School of Engineering 2016

Contact Information

166 Hudson Hall, Box 90287, Durham, NC 27708
Box 90287, 166 Hudson Hall, Durham, NC 27708
mark.borsuk@duke.edu (919) 660-1767

Background
Education, Training, and Certifications
- Ph.D., Duke University 2001
Recognition
In the News
- APR 28, 2017
  
  Energy Initiative Awards Seven New Seed Grants
- OCT 1, 2016
  
  Mark Borsuk: Valuing the Invaluable, Predicting the Unpredictable
Research
Selected Grants
- CNH-L: Assessing the Potential for Climate Change and Forest Insects to Drive Land-Use Regime Shifts awarded by Harvard University 2016 - 2019
- Assessing the contribution of small streams to use and non-use water quality values using modeling, stakeholder participation, and decision theory awarded by Dartmouth College 2016 - 2019
- TNC Bridge Collaborative awarded by Nature Conservancy 2016 - 2017
Publications and Artistic Works
Selected Publications
- Conference Papers
  - Su, C, Borsuk, ME, Andrew, A, and Karagas, M. "Incorporating prior expert knowledge in learning Bayesian networks from genetic epidemiological data." January 1, 2014. Full Text
  - Gerst, MD, Ding, P, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "A possible integration of multiple paradigms used in integrated assessment modelling of climate change." December 1, 2012.
  - Gerst, MD, Wang, P, Roventini, A, Dosi, G, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "Integrated assessment of mitigation strategies using an agent-based model of the linked energy, economic, and climate system." December 1, 2012.
  - Ding, P, Hoyle, CES, and Borsuk, ME. "Parameter optimization and Bayesian inference in an estuarine eutrophication model of intermediate complexity." December 1, 2010.
  - Borsuk, ME, Schweizer, S, and Reichert, P. "Addressing stakeholder concerns using the Integrative River Rehabilitation Model (IRRM)." December 1, 2008.
- Journal Articles
  - Mavrommati, G, Bithas, K, Borsuk, ME, and Howarth, RB. "Integration of ecological-biological thresholds in conservation decision making." Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology 30, no. 6 (December 2016): 1173-1181. Full Text
  - Mallampalli, VR, Mavrommati, G, Thompson, J, Duveneck, M, Meyer, S, Ligmann-Zielinska, A, Druschke, CG, Hychka, K, Kenney, MA, Kok, K, and Borsuk, ME. "Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change." Environmental Modelling & Software 82 (August 2016): 7-20. Full Text
  - Mallampalli, VR, Mavrommati, G, Thompson, J, Duveneck, M, Meyer, S, Ligmann-Zielinska, A, Druschke, CG, Hychka, K, Kenney, MA, Kok, K, and Borsuk, ME. "Methods for translating narrative scenarios into quantitative assessments of land use change." ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE 82 (August 2016): 7-20. Full Text Link to Item
  - Su, C, and Borsuk, ME. "Improving structure MCMC for Bayesian networks through Markov Blanket resampling." Journal of Machine Learning Research 17 (April 1, 2016): 1-20.
  - Lutz, DA, Burakowski, EA, Murphy, MB, Borsuk, ME, Niemiec, RM, and Howarth, RB. "Trade-offs between three forest ecosystem services across the state of New Hampshire, USA: timber, carbon, and albedo." Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America 26, no. 1 (January 2016): 146-161. Full Text
  - Paul, MP, Rigrod, P, Wingate, S, and Borsuk, ME. "A Community-Driven Intervention in Tuftonboro, New Hampshire, Succeeds in Altering Water Testing Behavior." Journal of environmental health 78, no. 5 (December 2015): 30-39.
  - Ding, P, Gerst, MD, Bang, G, and Borsuk, ME. "An Application of Automated Mediation to International Climate Treaty Negotiation." Group Decision and Negotiation 24, no. 5 (September 2015): 885-903. Full Text
  - Andrew, AS, Gui, J, Hu, T, Wyszynski, A, Marsit, CJ, Kelsey, KT, Schned, AR, Tanyos, SA, Pendleton, EM, Ekstrom, RM, Li, Z, Zens, MS, Borsuk, M, Moore, JH, and Karagas, MR. "Genetic polymorphisms modify bladder cancer recurrence and survival in a USA population-based prognostic study." BJU international 115, no. 2 (February 2015): 238-247. Full Text
  - Rinderknecht, SL, Albert, C, Borsuk, ME, Schuwirth, N, Künsch, HR, and Reichert, P. "The effect of ambiguous prior knowledge on Bayesian model parameter inference and prediction." Environmental Modelling & Software 62 (December 2014): 300-315. Full Text
  - Turaga, RMR, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "Perceptions of Mercury Risk and Its Management." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 20, no. 5 (September 3, 2014): 1385-1405. Full Text
  - Chen, CY, Borsuk, ME, Bugge, DM, Hollweg, T, Balcom, PH, Ward, DM, Williams, J, and Mason, RP. "Benthic and pelagic pathways of methylmercury bioaccumulation in estuarine food webs of the northeast United States." PloS one 9, no. 2 (January 2014): e89305-. Full Text
  - Howarth, RB, Gerst, MD, and Borsuk, ME. "Risk mitigation and the social cost of carbon." Global Environmental Change 24 (January 2014): 123-131. Full Text
  - Wang, P, Gerst, MD, and Borsuk, ME. "Exploring energy and economic futures using agent-based modeling and scenario discovery." Understanding Complex Systems (December 2, 2013): 251-269. Full Text
  - Anderson, CA, Eser, U, Korndorf, T, Borsuk, ME, Skotheim, JM, and Gladfelter, AS. "Nuclear repulsion enables division autonomy in a single cytoplasm." Current biology : CB 23, no. 20 (October 3, 2013): 1999-2010. Full Text
  - Kelly (Letcher), RA, Jakeman, AJ, Barreteau, O, Borsuk, ME, ElSawah, S, Hamilton, SH, Henriksen, HJ, Kuikka, S, Maier, HR, Rizzoli, AE, van Delden, H, and Voinov, AA. "Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management." Environmental Modelling & Software 47 (September 2013): 159-181. Full Text
  - Lee, C, Zhang, H, Baker, AE, Occhipinti, P, Borsuk, ME, and Gladfelter, AS. "Protein aggregation behavior regulates cyclin transcript localization and cell-cycle control." Developmental cell 25, no. 6 (June 13, 2013): 572-584. Full Text
  - Gerst, MD, Wang, P, Roventini, A, Fagiolo, G, Dosi, G, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "Agent-based modeling of climate policy: An introduction to the ENGAGE multi-level model framework." Environmental Modelling & Software 44 (June 2013): 62-75. Full Text
  - Gerst, MD, Wang, P, and Borsuk, ME. "Discovering plausible energy and economic futures under global change using multidimensional scenario discovery." Environmental Modelling & Software 44 (June 2013): 76-86. Full Text
  - Giupponi, C, Borsuk, ME, de Vries, BJM, and Hasselmann, K. "Innovative approaches to integrated global change modelling." Environmental Modelling & Software 44 (June 2013): 1-9. Full Text
  - Su, C, Andrew, A, Karagas, MR, and Borsuk, ME. "Using Bayesian networks to discover relations between genes, environment, and disease." BioData mining 6, no. 1 (March 21, 2013): 6-. Full Text
  - Gerst, MD, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "The interplay between risk attitudes and low probability, high cost outcomes in climate policy analysis." Environmental Modelling & Software 41 (March 2013): 176-184. Full Text
  - Nair, A, Thomas, AC, and Borsuk, ME. "Interannual variability in the timing of New England shellfish toxicity and relationships to environmental forcing." The Science of the total environment 447 (March 2013): 255-266. Full Text
  - Gui, J, Tosteson, TD, and Borsuk, M. "Weighted multiple testing procedures for genomic studies." BioData Mining 5, no. 1 (December 2012). Full Text
  - Ding, P, Gerst, MD, Bernstein, A, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "Rare disasters and risk attitudes: international differences and implications for integrated assessment modeling." Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis 32, no. 11 (November 2012): 1846-1855. Full Text
  - Rinderknecht, SL, Borsuk, ME, and Reichert, P. "Bridging uncertain and ambiguous knowledge with imprecise probabilities." Environmental Modelling & Software 36 (October 2012): 122-130. Full Text
  - Barton, DN, Kuikka, S, Varis, O, Uusitalo, L, Henriksen, HJ, Borsuk, M, de la Hera, A, Farmani, R, Johnson, S, and Linnell, JDC. "Bayesian networks in environmental and resource management." Integrated environmental assessment and management 8, no. 3 (July 2012): 418-429. (Review) Full Text
  - Borsuk, ME, Schweizer, S, and Reichert, P. "A Bayesian network model for integrative river rehabilitation planning and management." Integrated environmental assessment and management 8, no. 3 (July 2012): 462-472. Full Text
  - Jakeman, A, Rizzoli, A, Voinov, A, Athanasiadis, I, Berger, T, Borsuk, M, Donatelli, M, Guariso, G, Jolma, A, Marsili-Libelli, S, Robson, B, Sànchez-Marrè, M, Seppelt, R, and Swayne, D. "Best Paper Awards for 2010." Environmental Modelling & Software 26, no. 12 (December 2011): 1375-1375. Full Text
  - Rinderknecht, SL, Borsuk, ME, and Reichert, P. "Eliciting density ratio classes." International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 52, no. 6 (September 2011): 792-804. Full Text
  - Tomassini, L, Knutti, R, Plattner, G-K, van Vuuren, DP, Stocker, TF, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "Uncertainty and risk in climate projections for the 21st century: comparing mitigation to non-intervention scenarios." Climatic Change 103, no. 3-4 (December 2010): 399-422. Full Text
  - Gronewold, AD, and Borsuk, ME. "Improving water quality assessments through a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of variability." Environmental science & technology 44, no. 20 (October 2010): 7858-7864. Full Text
  - Nair, DR, D'Ausilio, CA, Occhipinti, P, Borsuk, ME, and Gladfelter, AS. "A conserved G₁ regulatory circuit promotes asynchronous behavior of nuclei sharing a common cytoplasm." Cell cycle (Georgetown, Tex.) 9, no. 18 (September 13, 2010): 3771-3779. Full Text
  - Gerst, MD, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "Accounting for the risk of extreme outcomes in an integrated assessment of climate change." Energy Policy 38, no. 8 (August 2010): 4540-4548. Full Text
  - Rieckermann, J, Borsuk, ME, Sydler, D, Gujer, W, and Reichert, P. "Bayesian experimental design of tracer studies to monitor wastewater leakage from sewer networks." Water Resources Research 46, no. 8 (August 2010). Full Text
  - Turaga, RMR, Howarth, RB, and Borsuk, ME. "Pro-environmental behavior: rational choice meets moral motivation." Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences 1185 (January 2010): 211-224. (Review) Full Text
  - Wullschleger, SD, Davis, EB, Borsuk, ME, Gunderson, CA, and Lynd, LR. "Biomass Production in Switchgrass across the United States: Database Description and Determinants of Yield." Agronomy Journal 102, no. 4 (2010): 1158-1158. Full Text
  - Tomassini, L, Reichert, P, Künsch, HR, Buser, C, Knutti, R, and Borsuk, ME. "A smoothing algorithm for estimating stochastic, continuous time model parameters and its application to a simple climate model." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics) 58, no. 5 (December 2009): 679-704. Full Text
  - Gronewold, AD, and Borsuk, ME. "A software tool for translating deterministic model results into probabilistic assessments of water quality standard compliance." Environmental Modelling & Software 24, no. 10 (October 2009): 1257-1262. Full Text
  - Gronewold, AD, Borsuk, ME, Wolpert, RL, and Reckhow, KH. "An assessment of fecal indicator bacteria-based water quality standards." Environmental science & technology 42, no. 13 (July 2008): 4676-4682. Full Text
  - Burkhardt-Holm, P, Segner, H, Burki, R, Peter, A, Schubert, S, Suter, MJ-F, and Borsuk, ME. "Estrogenic Endocrine Disruption in Switzerland: Assessment of Fish Exposure and Effects." CHIMIA International Journal for Chemistry 62, no. 5 (May 28, 2008): 376-382. Full Text
  - Mieleitner, J, Borsuk, M, Bürgi, H-R, and Reichert, P. "Identifying functional groups of phytoplankton using data from three lakes of different trophic state." Aquatic Sciences 70, no. 1 (April 2008): 30-46. Full Text
  - Borsuk, ME, Maurer, M, Lienert, J, and Larsen, TA. "Charting a path for innovative toilet technology using multicriteria decision analysis." Environmental science & technology 42, no. 6 (March 2008): 1855-1862. Full Text
  - Stow, CA, Reckhow, KH, Qian, SS, III, LEC, Arhonditsis, GB, Borsuk, ME, and Seo, D. "Approaches to evaluate water quality model parameter uncertainty for adaptive tmdl implementation." JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION 43, no. 6 (December 2007): 1499-1507. Full Text Link to Item
  - Schweizer, S, Borsuk, ME, and Reichert, P. "Erratum: Predicting the morphological and hydraulic consequences of river rehabilitation." River Research and Applications 23, no. 7 (September 2007): 799-799. Full Text
  - Fenner, K, Lanz, VA, Scheringer, M, and Borsuk, ME. "Relating atrazine degradation rate in soil to environmental conditions: implications for global fate modeling." Environmental science & technology 41, no. 8 (April 2007): 2840-2846. Full Text
  - Spörri, C, Borsuk, M, Peters, I, and Reichert, P. "The economic impacts of river rehabilitation: A regional Input–Output analysis." Ecological Economics 62, no. 2 (April 2007): 341-351. Full Text
  - Tomassini, L, Reichert, P, Knutti, R, Stocker, TF, and Borsuk, ME. "Robust Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis of Climate System Properties Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods." Journal of Climate 20, no. 7 (April 2007): 1239-1254. Full Text
  - Schweizer, S, Borsuk, ME, Jowett, I, and Reichert, P. "Predicting joint frequency distributions of depth and velocity for instream habitat assessment." River Research and Applications 23, no. 3 (March 2007): 287-302. Full Text
  - Schweizer, S, Borsuk, ME, and Reichert, P. "Predicting the morphological and hydraulic consequences of river rehabilitation." River Research and Applications 23, no. 3 (March 2007): 303-322. Full Text
  - Reichert, P, Borsuk, M, Hostmann, M, Schweizer, S, Spörri, C, Tockner, K, and Truffer, B. "Concepts of decision support for river rehabilitation." Environmental Modelling & Software 22, no. 2 (February 2007): 188-201. Full Text
  - Borsuk, ME, Reichert, P, Peter, A, Schager, E, and Burkhardt-Holm, P. "Assessing the decline of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Swiss rivers using a Bayesian probability network." Ecological Modelling 192, no. 1-2 (February 2006): 224-244. Full Text
  - Rieckermann, J, Borsuk, ME, and Gujer, W. "Using decision analysis to determine optimal experimental design for monitoring sewer exfiltration with tracers." Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research 54, no. 6-7 (January 2006): 161-168.
  - REICHERT, P, and BORSUK, M. "Does high forecast uncertainty preclude effective decision support?." Environmental Modelling & Software 20, no. 8 (August 2005): 991-1001. Full Text
  - Rieckermann, J, Borsuk, M, Reichert, P, and Gujer, W. "A novel tracer method for estimating sewer exfiltration." Water Resources Research 41, no. 5 (May 2005). Full Text
  - Borsuk, ME, and Tomassini, L. "Uncertainty, imprecision, and the precautionary principle in climate change assessment." Water science and technology : a journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research 52, no. 6 (January 2005): 213-225.
  - Borsuk, ME, Stow, CA, and Reckhow, KH. "Confounding effect of flow on estuarine response to nitrogen loading." JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING-ASCE 130, no. 6 (June 2004): 605-614. Full Text Link to Item
  - Borsuk, ME, Stow, CA, and Reckhow, KH. "A Bayesian network of eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction, and uncertainty analysis." ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 173, no. 2-3 (April 1, 2004): 219-239. Full Text Link to Item
  - Borsuk, ME. "Predictive Assessment of Fish Health and Fish Kills in the Neuse River Estuary Using Elicited Expert Judgment." Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal 10, no. 2 (April 2004): 415-434. Full Text
  - Stow, CA, and Borsuk, ME. "Assessing TMDL effectiveness using flow-adjusted concentrations: a case study of the Neuse River, North Carolina." Environmental science & technology 37, no. 10 (May 2003): 2043-2050. Full Text
  - Borsuk, ME, Stow, CA, and Reckhow, KH. "Integrated approach to total maximum daily load development for Neuse River Estuary using Bayesian probability network model (Neu-BERN)." JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE 129, no. 4 (2003): 271-282. Full Text Link to Item
  - Qian, SS, Stow, CA, and Borsuk, ME. "On Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference." Ecological Modelling 159, no. 2-3 (January 2003): 269-277. Full Text
  - Stow, CA, Roessler, C, Borsuk, ME, Bowen, JD, and Reckhow, KH. "Comparison of estuarine water quality models for total maximum daily load development in Neuse River Estuary." JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE 129, no. 4 (2003): 307-314. Full Text Link to Item
  - Stow, CA, and Borsuk, ME. "Enhancing causal assessment of estuarine fishkills using graphical models." Ecosystems 6, no. 1 (January 1, 2003): 11-19. (Review) Full Text
  - Borsuk, ME, Powers, SP, and Peterson, CH. "A survival model of the effects of bottom-water hypoxia on the population density of an estuarine clam ( Macoma balthica )." Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 59, no. 8 (August 2002): 1266-1274. Full Text
  - Borsuk, ME, Stow, CA, and Reckhow, KH. "Predicting the frequency of water quality standard violations: a probabilistic approach for TMDL development." Environ Sci Technol 36, no. 10 (May 15, 2002): 2109-2115. Link to Item
  - Borsuk, ME, Higdon, D, Stow, CA, and Reckhow, KH. "A Bayesian hierarchical model to predict benthic oxygen demand from organic matter loading in estuaries and coastal zones." ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 143, no. 3 (September 15, 2001): 165-181. Full Text Link to Item
  - Stow, CA, Borsuk, ME, and Stanley, DW. "Long-term changes in watershed nutrient inputs and riverine exports in the Neuse River, North Carolina." Water research 35, no. 6 (April 2001): 1489-1499. Full Text
  - Borsuk, M, Clemen, R, Maguire, L, and Reckhow, K. "Stakeholder Values and Scientific Modeling in the Neuse River Watershed." Group Decision and Negotiation 10, no. 4 (2001): 355-373. Full Text
  - Borsuk, ME, Stow, CA, Luettich, RA, Paerl, HW, and Pinckney, JL. "Modelling Oxygen Dynamics in an Intermittently Stratified Estuary: Estimation of Process Rates Using Field Data." Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science 52, no. 1 (January 2001): 33-49. Full Text
  - Qian, SS, Borsuk, ME, and Stow, CA. "Seasonal and Long-Term Nutrient Trend Decomposition along a Spatial Gradient in the Neuse River Watershed." Environmental Science & Technology 34, no. 21 (November 2000): 4474-4482. Full Text
  - Borsuk, M. "Bayesian parameter estimation in a mixed-order model of BOD decay." Water Research 34, no. 6 (April 1, 2000): 1830-1836. Full Text
Scholarly, Clinical, and Service Activities
Outreach and Engaged Scholarship
- Bass Connections Faculty Team Member. Decisions on Complex Interdisciplinary Problems of Health and Environmental Risk (D-CIPHER). August 2017 - May 2018 2017 - 2018

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Education, Training, and Certifications

In the News

Selected Grants

Selected Publications

Conference Papers

Journal Articles

Outreach and Engaged Scholarship