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Assessing the decline of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Swiss rivers using a Bayesian probability network

Publication ,  Journal Article
Borsuk, ME; Reichert, P; Peter, A; Schager, E; Burkhardt-Holm, P
Published in: Ecological Modelling
February 15, 2006

A Bayesian probability network has been developed to integrate the various scientific findings of an interdisciplinary research project on brown trout and their habitat in Switzerland. The network is based on a dynamic, age-structured population model, which is extended to include the effect of natural and anthropogenic influence factors. These include gravel bed conditions, water quality, disease rates, water temperature, habitat conditions, stocking practices, angler catch and flood frequency. Effect strength and associated uncertainty are described by conditional probability distributions. These conditional probabilities were developed using experimental and field data, literature reports, and the elicited judgment of involved scientists. The model was applied to brown trout populations at 12 locations in four river basins. Model testing consisted of comparing predictions of juvenile and adult density under current conditions to the results of recent population surveys. The relative importance of the various influence factors was then assessed by comparing various model scenarios, including a hypothetical reference condition. A measure of causal strength was developed based on this comparison, and the major stress factors were analyzed according to this measure for each location. We found that suboptimal habitat conditions are the most important and ubiquitous stress factor and have impacts of sufficient magnitude to explain the reduced fish populations observed in recent years. However, other factors likely contribute to the declines, depending on local conditions. The model developed in this study can be used to provide these site-specific assessments and predict the effect of candidate management measures. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Published In

Ecological Modelling

DOI

ISSN

0304-3800

Publication Date

February 15, 2006

Volume

192

Issue

1-2

Start / End Page

224 / 244

Related Subject Headings

  • Ecology
 

Citation

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Borsuk, M. E., Reichert, P., Peter, A., Schager, E., & Burkhardt-Holm, P. (2006). Assessing the decline of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Swiss rivers using a Bayesian probability network. Ecological Modelling, 192(1–2), 224–244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.07.006
Borsuk, M. E., P. Reichert, A. Peter, E. Schager, and P. Burkhardt-Holm. “Assessing the decline of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Swiss rivers using a Bayesian probability network.” Ecological Modelling 192, no. 1–2 (February 15, 2006): 224–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.07.006.
Borsuk ME, Reichert P, Peter A, Schager E, Burkhardt-Holm P. Assessing the decline of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Swiss rivers using a Bayesian probability network. Ecological Modelling. 2006 Feb 15;192(1–2):224–44.
Borsuk, M. E., et al. “Assessing the decline of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Swiss rivers using a Bayesian probability network.” Ecological Modelling, vol. 192, no. 1–2, Feb. 2006, pp. 224–44. Scopus, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.07.006.
Borsuk ME, Reichert P, Peter A, Schager E, Burkhardt-Holm P. Assessing the decline of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Swiss rivers using a Bayesian probability network. Ecological Modelling. 2006 Feb 15;192(1–2):224–244.
Journal cover image

Published In

Ecological Modelling

DOI

ISSN

0304-3800

Publication Date

February 15, 2006

Volume

192

Issue

1-2

Start / End Page

224 / 244

Related Subject Headings

  • Ecology