Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results
Publication
, Journal Article
Winkler, RL
Published in: Journal of the American Statistical Association
January 1, 1971
This article concerns a study in which personal probability assessments regarding the outcomes of football games were obtained. The results reported here, which include a detailed investigation of the assessments, an evaluation of the assessments in an inferential context and in a decision-theoretic context, and a discussion of the performance of a consensus, show that methods such as scoring rules and bets are useful in leading individuals to make careful probability assessments. Considerable variability existed among subjects, however, with predictions determined by mechanical schemes and by the organized betting market proving superior to those of many of the subjects. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
Duke Scholars
Published In
Journal of the American Statistical Association
DOI
EISSN
1537-274X
ISSN
0162-1459
Publication Date
January 1, 1971
Volume
66
Issue
336
Start / End Page
675 / 685
Related Subject Headings
- Statistics & Probability
- 4905 Statistics
- 3802 Econometrics
- 1603 Demography
- 1403 Econometrics
- 0104 Statistics
Citation
APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Winkler, R. L. (1971). Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66(336), 675–685. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329
Winkler, R. L. “Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 66, no. 336 (January 1, 1971): 675–85. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329.
Winkler RL. Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1971 Jan 1;66(336):675–85.
Winkler, R. L. “Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 66, no. 336, Jan. 1971, pp. 675–85. Scopus, doi:10.1080/01621459.1971.10482329.
Winkler RL. Probabilistic prediction: Some experimental results. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1971 Jan 1;66(336):675–685.
Published In
Journal of the American Statistical Association
DOI
EISSN
1537-274X
ISSN
0162-1459
Publication Date
January 1, 1971
Volume
66
Issue
336
Start / End Page
675 / 685
Related Subject Headings
- Statistics & Probability
- 4905 Statistics
- 3802 Econometrics
- 1603 Demography
- 1403 Econometrics
- 0104 Statistics