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Ex ante returns and occupational choice

Publication ,  Journal Article
Arcidiacono, P; Joseph Hotz, V; Maurel, A; Romano, T
Published in: Journal of Political Economy
December 1, 2020

Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupations and provide evidence of sorting on expected gains. Finally, nonpecuniary factors play an important role, with a sizable share of individuals willing to give up substantial amounts of earnings by not choosing their highest-paying occupation.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

Journal of Political Economy

DOI

EISSN

1537-534X

ISSN

0022-3808

Publication Date

December 1, 2020

Volume

128

Issue

12

Start / End Page

4475 / 4522

Related Subject Headings

  • Economics
  • 38 Economics
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 14 Economics
 

Citation

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Arcidiacono, P., Joseph Hotz, V., Maurel, A., & Romano, T. (2020). Ex ante returns and occupational choice. Journal of Political Economy, 128(12), 4475–4522. https://doi.org/10.1086/710559
Arcidiacono, P., V. Joseph Hotz, A. Maurel, and T. Romano. “Ex ante returns and occupational choice.” Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 12 (December 1, 2020): 4475–4522. https://doi.org/10.1086/710559.
Arcidiacono P, Joseph Hotz V, Maurel A, Romano T. Ex ante returns and occupational choice. Journal of Political Economy. 2020 Dec 1;128(12):4475–522.
Arcidiacono, P., et al. “Ex ante returns and occupational choice.” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 128, no. 12, Dec. 2020, pp. 4475–522. Scopus, doi:10.1086/710559.
Arcidiacono P, Joseph Hotz V, Maurel A, Romano T. Ex ante returns and occupational choice. Journal of Political Economy. 2020 Dec 1;128(12):4475–4522.
Journal cover image

Published In

Journal of Political Economy

DOI

EISSN

1537-534X

ISSN

0022-3808

Publication Date

December 1, 2020

Volume

128

Issue

12

Start / End Page

4475 / 4522

Related Subject Headings

  • Economics
  • 38 Economics
  • 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services
  • 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
  • 14 Economics