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An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Fajnzylber, E; Hotz, VJ; Sanders, SG
Published in: Advances in life course research
March 2010

Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

Duke Scholars

Published In

Advances in life course research

DOI

EISSN

1879-6974

ISSN

1569-4909

Publication Date

March 2010

Volume

15

Issue

1

Start / End Page

11 / 26

Related Subject Headings

  • Sociology
 

Citation

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MLA
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Fajnzylber, E., Hotz, V. J., & Sanders, S. G. (2010). An economic model of amniocentesis choice. Advances in Life Course Research, 15(1), 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2010.08.001
Fajnzylber, Eduardo, V Joseph Hotz, and Seth G. Sanders. “An economic model of amniocentesis choice.Advances in Life Course Research 15, no. 1 (March 2010): 11–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2010.08.001.
Fajnzylber E, Hotz VJ, Sanders SG. An economic model of amniocentesis choice. Advances in life course research. 2010 Mar;15(1):11–26.
Fajnzylber, Eduardo, et al. “An economic model of amniocentesis choice.Advances in Life Course Research, vol. 15, no. 1, Mar. 2010, pp. 11–26. Epmc, doi:10.1016/j.alcr.2010.08.001.
Fajnzylber E, Hotz VJ, Sanders SG. An economic model of amniocentesis choice. Advances in life course research. 2010 Mar;15(1):11–26.

Published In

Advances in life course research

DOI

EISSN

1879-6974

ISSN

1569-4909

Publication Date

March 2010

Volume

15

Issue

1

Start / End Page

11 / 26

Related Subject Headings

  • Sociology