Overview
Professor Ilut’s major fields of interest are macroeconomics, international finance, asset pricing, and economics of information. Specifically, he focuses on the role of expectations and how agents incorporate information. He is currently focusing on settings in which agents face model uncertainty. Based on decision theoretical foundations (ambiguity aversion), he studies the role of such uncertainties for understanding macroeconomic issues like business cycle fluctuations, asset pricing and optimal policy.
Current Appointments & Affiliations
Professor of Economics
·
2022 - Present
Economics,
Trinity College of Arts & Sciences
Recent Publications
Diagnostic Business Cycles
Journal Article Review of Economic Studies · January 1, 2024 A large psychology literature argues that, due to selective memory recall, decision-makers' forecasts of the future are overly influenced by the perceived news. We adopt the diagnostic expectations (DE) paradigm [Bordalo et al. (2018), Journal of Finance, ... Full text CiteEconomic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers
Journal Article Quarterly Journal of Economics · February 1, 2023 We develop a novel bounded rationality model of imperfect reasoning as the interaction between automatic (System 1) and analytical (System 2) thinking. In doing so, we formalize the empirical consensus of cognitive psychology using a structural, constraine ... Full text CiteAmbiguity
Chapter · January 1, 2022 We survey the literature on ambiguity with an emphasis on recent applications in macroeconomics and finance. Like risk, ambiguity leads to cautious behavior and uncertainty premia in asset markets. Unlike risk, ambiguity can generate first-order welfare lo ... Full text CiteRecent Grants
Collaborative Research: Diagnostic Expectations, Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Science Foundation · 2024 - 2027Cognitively Costly Decision Making by Economic Agents: Micro and Macro Implications
ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Science Foundation · 2018 - 2022Ambiguity, Business Cycle Dynamics and Optimal Policy
ResearchPrincipal Investigator · Awarded by National Science Foundation · 2013 - 2015View All Grants
Education, Training & Certifications
Northwestern University ·
2009
Ph.D.
Northwestern University ·
2005
M.A.