Scholars@Duke
Jon Green

Jon Green CV

Assistant Professor of Political Science
Political Science
jon.green@duke.edu
294H Gross Hall, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
294H Gross Hall, Box 90204, Durham, NC 27708
CV

Selected Publications

Social Disruption, Gun Buying, and Anti-System Beliefs

Journal Article Perspectives on Politics · December 2024 Gun ownership is a highly consequential political behavior. It often signifies a belief about the inadequacy of state-provided security and leads to membership in a powerful political constituency. As a result, it is important to understand why peo ... Full text Cite

Cost sensitivity, partisan cues, and support for the Green New Deal

Journal Article Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences · December 1, 2024 Opponents of climate policy proposals frequently ground their objections in terms of costs. However, it is unclear whether these objections are persuasive to individuals considering whether to support such programs. Not only do people have difficulties in ... Full text Cite

Cross-Platform Partisan Positioning in Congressional Speech

Journal Article Political Research Quarterly · September 1, 2024 Legislative activity—whether votes or communications—is often represented in a single partisan or ideological dimension. But as lawmakers communicate in various venues (e.g., traditional, direct, or social media), the extent to which these estimates are in ... Full text Cite

Guns and Democracy: Anti-System Attitudes, Protest, and Support for Violence Among Pandemic Gun-Buyers

Journal Article Political Research Quarterly · September 1, 2024 The last decade has given rise to substantial concern about democratic backsliding in the U.S. Manifestations include decreased trust in government, conspiratorial beliefs, contentious protests, and support for political violence. Surprisingly, prior work ... Full text Cite

Something to Run for: Stated Motives as Indicators of Candidate Emergence

Journal Article Political Behavior · June 1, 2024 Patterns in candidate emergence affect who voters can choose from, and thus the quality of representative democracy. Despite extensive work considering factors that contribute to political ambition and factors that contribute to candidate emergence separat ... Full text Cite

Post-January 6th deplatforming reduced the reach of misinformation on Twitter.

Journal Article Nature · June 2024 The social media platforms of the twenty-first century have an enormous role in regulating speech in the USA and worldwide1. However, there has been little research on platform-wide interventions on speech2,3. Here we evaluate the eff ... Full text Cite

Campaign Principal-Agent Problems: Volunteers as Faithful and Representative Agents

Journal Article Political Behavior · March 1, 2024 Volunteer-based voter contact presents multiple potential principal-agent problems for political campaigns. Conflicting potential solutions to these principal-agent problems generate two opposing expectations about campaigns’ preferences for ideological ty ... Full text Cite

Divisive or Descriptive?: How Americans Understand Critical Race Theory

Journal Article Journal of Race, Ethnicity and Politics · March 1, 2024 Critical Race Theory (CRT) has become a flashpoint of elite political discord, yet how Americans actually perceive CRT is unclear. We theorize that Republican elites utilized a strong framing strategy to re-define CRT as an empty signifier representing bro ... Full text Open Access Cite

COVID-19 Spillover Effects onto General Vaccine Attitudes

Journal Article Public Opinion Quarterly · January 1, 2024 Even amid the unprecedented public health challenges attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, opposition to vaccinating against the novel coronavirus has been both prevalent and politically contentious in American public life. In this paper, we theorize that ... Full text Cite

Misinformation, Trust, and Use of Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19.

Journal Article JAMA health forum · September 2023 ImportanceThe COVID-19 pandemic has been notable for the widespread dissemination of misinformation regarding the virus and appropriate treatment.ObjectiveTo quantify the prevalence of non-evidence-based treatment for COVID-19 in the US a ... Full text Cite

A 50-state survey study of thoughts of suicide and social isolation among older adults in the United States.

Journal Article Journal of affective disorders · August 2023 BackgroundWe aimed to characterize the prevalence of social disconnection and thoughts of suicide among older adults in the United States, and examine the association between them in a large naturalistic study.MethodsWe analyzed data from ... Full text Cite

Machine Learning for Experiments in the Social Sciences

Book · June 30, 2023 Causal inference and machine learning are typically introduced in the social sciences separately as theoretically distinct methodological traditions. ... Cite

Users choose to engage with more partisan news than they are exposed to on Google Search.

Journal Article Nature · June 2023 If popular online platforms systematically expose their users to partisan and unreliable news, they could potentially contribute to societal issues such as rising political polarization1,2. This concern is central to the 'echo chamber'3-5 Full text Cite

Media use and vaccine resistance.

Journal Article PNAS nexus · May 2023 Public health requires collective action-the public best addresses health crises when individuals engage in prosocial behaviors. Failure to do so can have dire societal and economic consequences. This was made clear by the disjointed, politicized response ... Full text Open Access Cite

Using General Messages to Persuade on a Politicized Scientific Issue

Journal Article British Journal of Political Science · April 24, 2023 Politics and science have become increasingly intertwined. Salient scientific issues, such as climate change, evolution, and stem-cell research, become politicized, pitting partisans against one another. This creates a challenge of how to effectively commu ... Full text Cite

Depressive symptoms and conspiracy beliefs

Journal Article Applied Cognitive Psychology · March 1, 2023 Conspiratorial beliefs can endanger individuals and societies by increasing the likelihood of harmful behaviors such as the flouting of public health guidelines. While scholars have identified various correlates of conspiracy beliefs, one factor that has r ... Full text Cite

Prevalence and Correlates of Long COVID Symptoms Among US Adults.

Journal Article JAMA network open · October 2022 ImportancePersistence of COVID-19 symptoms beyond 2 months, or long COVID, is increasingly recognized as a common sequela of acute infection.ObjectivesTo estimate the prevalence of and sociodemographic factors associated with long COVID a ... Full text Cite

Online engagement with 2020 election misinformation and turnout in the 2021 Georgia runoff election.

Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · August 2022 Following the 2020 general election, Republican elected officials, including then-President Donald Trump, promoted conspiracy theories claiming that Joe Biden's close victory in Georgia was fraudulent. Such conspiratorial claims could implicate participati ... Full text Open Access Cite

Higher education responses to COVID-19 in the United States: Evidence for the impacts of university policy.

Journal Article PLOS digital health · June 2022 With a dataset of testing and case counts from over 1,400 institutions of higher education (IHEs) in the United States, we analyze the number of infections and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 in the counties surrounding these IHEs during the Fall 2020 semester (Aug ... Full text Open Access Cite

Prevalence of Firearm Ownership Among Individuals With Major Depressive Symptoms.

Journal Article JAMA network open · March 2022 ImportanceBoth major depression and firearm ownership are associated with an increased risk for death by suicide in the United States, but the extent of overlap among these major risk factors is not well characterized.ObjectiveTo assess t ... Full text Cite

Strategic Discrimination in the 2020 Democratic Primary

Journal Article Public Opinion Quarterly · January 1, 2022 Primary voters frequently support the candidates they think have a greater chance of winning the general election over the candidates who most closely reflect their policy preferences-a perception referred to as "electability."While electability is typical ... Full text Cite

Association of Major Depressive Symptoms With Endorsement of COVID-19 Vaccine Misinformation Among US Adults.

Journal Article JAMA network open · January 2022 ImportanceMisinformation about COVID-19 vaccination may contribute substantially to vaccine hesitancy and resistance.ObjectiveTo determine if depressive symptoms are associated with greater likelihood of believing vaccine-related misinfor ... Full text Cite

Association Between Social Media Use and Self-reported Symptoms of Depression in US Adults.

Journal Article JAMA network open · November 2021 ImportanceSome studies suggest that social media use is associated with risk for depression, particularly among children and young adults.ObjectiveTo characterize the association between self-reported use of individual social media platfo ... Full text Cite

Gender-specificity of resilience in major depressive disorder.

Journal Article Depression and anxiety · October 2021 IntroductionThe major stressors associated with the COVID-19 pandemic provide an opportunity to understand the extent to which protective factors against depression may exhibit gender-specificity.MethodThis study examined responses from m ... Full text Open Access Cite

(Mis)alignment Between Stance Expressed in Social Media Data and Public Opinion Surveys

Conference EMNLP 2021 - 2021 Conference on Empirical Methods in Natural Language Processing, Proceedings · January 1, 2021 Stance detection, which aims to determine whether an individual is for or against a target concept, promises to uncover public opinion from large streams of social media data. Yet even human annotation of social media content does not always capture “stanc ... Cite

It Takes a Motive: Communal and Agentic Articulated Interest and Candidate Emergence

Journal Article Political Research Quarterly · December 1, 2020 More women ran for office in 2018 than any previous election year. This represents progress toward parity, but it remains unclear whether this surge in women’s political ambition signals an easing of the candidate emergence path, which has typically favore ... Full text Cite

Floating policy voters in the 2016 U.S. presidential election

Journal Article Electoral Studies · October 1, 2020 Much of the political science literature is skeptical that issue content matters for presidential voting behavior, with partisanship, social identity, and group attitudes providing the vast majority of explanatory power for two-party vote choice at the ind ... Full text Cite

Elusive consensus: Polarization in elite communication on the COVID-19 pandemic.

Journal Article Science advances · July 2020 Cues sent by political elites are known to influence public attitudes and behavior. Polarization in elite rhetoric may hinder effective responses to public health crises, when accurate information and rapid behavioral change can save lives. We examine pola ... Full text Open Access Cite

Erratum: The Differential Effects of Economic Conditions and Racial Attitudes in the Election of Donald Trump (Perspectives on Politics (2019) 17:2 (358-379) DOI: 10.1017/S1537592718003365)

Journal Article Perspectives on Politics · March 1, 2020 In the original published article by Green and McElwee (2019), on page 362 the authors designated the wrong quartiles in explaining figures 3 and 4. The corrected text is provided here: Examining local economic conditions, starting with county-level percen ... Full text Cite

The differential effects of economic conditions and racial attitudes in the election of Donald Trump

Journal Article Perspectives on Politics · January 1, 2019 Debates over the extent to which racial attitudes and economic distress explain voting behavior in the 2016 election have tended to be limited in scope, focusing on the extent to which each factor explains white voters’ two-party vote choice. This limited ... Full text Cite

The need for a translational science of democracy.

Journal Article Science (New York, N.Y.) · March 2017 Full text Cite