Overview
Jack B. Soll is the Gregory Mario and Jeremy Mario Distinguished Professor of management at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, having joined Duke in 2005. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business, where he specialized in behavioral science and economics. Prior to joining Duke, Soll was on the faculty at INSEAD in Fontainebleau France, and also served as a visiting professor at Chicago and Wharton. Professor Soll has taught courses in decision making, managerial effectiveness, leadership, negotiations, and statistics. He has taught extensively in both executive education and daytime MBA programs.
Professor Soll’s research focuses on the psychology of judgment and decision making. He has written extensively on the phenemenon of overconfidence—the tendency for people to believe that outcomes are more certain than they really are. His current research interests include group decision making, and also the implications of behavioral decision research for public policy. He has published in a number of scholarly journals, including Science, Management Science, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, and the Journal of Experimental Psychology.
Professor Soll’s research focuses on the psychology of judgment and decision making. He has written extensively on the phenemenon of overconfidence—the tendency for people to believe that outcomes are more certain than they really are. His current research interests include group decision making, and also the implications of behavioral decision research for public policy. He has published in a number of scholarly journals, including Science, Management Science, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, and the Journal of Experimental Psychology.
Current Appointments & Affiliations
Gregory Mario and Jeremy Mario Distinguished Professor of Business Administration
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2023 - Present
Fuqua School of Business
Professor of Business Administration
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2019 - Present
Fuqua School of Business
Recent Publications
Evidence of a social evaluation penalty for using AI.
Journal Article Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · May 2025 Despite the rapid proliferation of AI tools, we know little about how people who use them are perceived by others. Drawing on theories of attribution and impression management, we propose that people believe they will be evaluated negatively by others for ... Full text CitePartisan bias, attribute substitution, and the benefits of an indirect format for eliciting forecasts and judgments of trend
Journal Article International Journal of Forecasting · April 1, 2025 A majority of Americans reported the economy to be worsening when objective indicators showed it to be recovering. We show that this is symptomatic of attribute substitution—people answer a taxing question as though asked a related easy-to-answer question. ... Full text CiteOverconfidence in Probability Distributions: People Know They Don't Know, but They Don't Know What to Do about It
Journal Article Management Science · November 1, 2024 Overconfidence is pervasive in subjective probability distributions (SPDs). We develop new methods to analyze judgments that entail both a distribution of possible outcomes in a population (aleatory uncertainty) and imperfect knowledge about that distribut ... Full text CiteEducation, Training & Certifications
The University of Chicago ·
1997
Ph.D.
The University of Chicago ·
1996
M.B.A.
Carleton College ·
1988
B.A.