Jack B. Soll | Scholars@Duke

Jack B. Soll
Professor of Business Administration

Jack B. Soll is a professor of management at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, having joined Duke in 2005. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago’s Graduate School of Business, where he specialized in behavioral science and economics. Prior to joining Duke, Soll was on the faculty at INSEAD in Fontainebleau France, and also served as a visiting professor at Chicago and Wharton. Professor Soll has taught courses in decision making, managerial effectiveness, leadership, negotiations, and statistics. He has taught extensively in both executive education and daytime MBA programs.

Professor Soll’s research focuses on the psychology of judgment and decision making. He has written extensively on the phenemenon of overconfidence—the tendency for people to believe that outcomes are more certain than they really are. His current research interests include group decision making, and also the implications of behavioral decision research for public policy. He has published in a number of scholarly journals, including Science, Management Science, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, and the Journal of Experimental Psychology.

Current Appointments & Affiliations

Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 2019
Faculty Network Member of The Energy Initiative, Nicholas Institute-Energy Initiative, Initiatives 2012

Contact Information

A209 Fuqua School of Bus, Durham, NC 27708
Box 90120, Durham, NC 27708-0120
jsoll@duke.edu (919) 660-7858
Fuqua Faculty Profile
Professional Page

Background
Education, Training, & Certifications
- Ph.D., The University of Chicago 1997
- M.B.A., The University of Chicago 1996
- B.A., Carleton College 1988
Previous Appointments & Affiliations
- Associate Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 2011 - 2019
- Associate Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 2009 - 2011
- Assistant Professor of Business Administration, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University 2005 - 2009
Recognition
In the News
- JUL 1, 2015
  
  A Better Way to Rate Energy Consumption
- JUL 1, 2015 Duke Today
  
  A Better Way to Rate Energy Consumption
Publications & Artistic Works
Selected Publications
- Academic Articles
  - Lawson, M. A., R. P. Larrick, and J. B. Soll. “When and why people perform mindless math.” Judgment and Decision Making 17, no. 6 (November 1, 2022): 1208–28.
  - Fath, S., R. P. Larrick, and J. B. Soll. “Blinding curiosity: Exploring preferences for “blinding” one's own judgment.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 170 (May 1, 2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2022.104135.
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  - Soll, J. B., A. B. Palley, and C. A. Rader. “The Bad Thing About Good Advice: Understanding When and How Advice Exacerbates Overconfidence.” Management Science 68, no. 4 (April 1, 2022): 2949–69. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.3987.
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  - Lawson, M. A., R. P. Larrick, and J. B. Soll. “Comparing fast thinking and slow thinking: The relative benefits of interventions, individual differences, and inferential rules.” Judgment and Decision Making 15, no. 5 (September 1, 2020): 660–84.
  - Palley, A. B., and J. B. Soll. “Extracting the wisdom of crowds when information is shared.” Management Science 65, no. 5 (May 1, 2019): 2291–2309. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2018.3047.
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  - Rader, C. A., R. P. Larrick, and J. B. Soll. “Advice as a form of social influence: Informational motives and the consequences for accuracy.” Social and Personality Psychology Compass 11, no. 8 (August 1, 2017). https://doi.org/10.1111/spc3.12329.
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  - Soll, Jack B., Katherine L. Milkman, and John W. Payne. “Outsmart Your Own Biases.” Harvard Business Review 93, no. 5 (May 1, 2015): 64–71.
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  - Rader, C. A., J. B. Soll, and R. P. Larrick. “Pushing away from representative advice: Advice taking, anchoring, and adjustment.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 130 (January 1, 2015): 26–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2015.05.004.
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  - Soll, J. B., K. L. Milkman, and J. W. Payne. “Outsmart your own biases.” Harvard Business Review 2015, no. May (January 1, 2015).
  - Mannes, Albert E., Jack B. Soll, and Richard P. Larrick. “The wisdom of select crowds.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 107, no. 2 (August 2014): 276–99. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0036677.
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  - Soll, J. B., R. L. Keeney, and R. P. Larrick. “Consumer misunderstanding of credit card use.” Journal of Public Policy and Marketing 32, no. 1 (January 1, 2013): 66–81. https://doi.org/10.1509/jppm.11.061.
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  - See, K. E., E. W. Morrison, N. B. Rothman, and J. B. Soll. “The detrimental effects of power on confidence, advice taking, and accuracy.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 116, no. 2 (November 1, 2011): 272–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.07.006.
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  - Soll, J. B., and A. E. Mannes. “Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved.” International Journal of Forecasting 27, no. 1 (January 1, 2011): 81–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.003.
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  - See, K. E., N. B. Rothman, and J. B. Soll. “Powerful and unpersuaded: The implications of power for confidence, advice taking, and accuracy.” Academy of Management 2010 Annual Meeting Dare to Care: Passion and Compassion in Management Practice and Research, Aom 2010, December 1, 2010.
  - Soll, Jack B., and Richard P. Larrick. “Strategies for revising judgment: how (and how well) people use others' opinions.” Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition 35, no. 3 (May 2009): 780–805. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0015145.
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  - Feiler, D. C., and J. B. Soll. “A blind spot in driving decisions: How neglecting costs puts us in overdrive.” Climatic Change 98, no. 1–2 (January 1, 2009): 285–90. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9759-z.
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  - Larrick, Richard P., and Jack B. Soll. “Economics. The MPG illusion.” Science (New York, N.Y.) 320, no. 5883 (June 2008): 1593–94. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1154983.
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  - Larrick, R. P., K. A. Burson, and J. B. Soll. “Social comparison and confidence: When thinking you're better than average predicts overconfidence (and when it does not).” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 102, no. 1 (January 1, 2007): 76–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2006.10.002.
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  - Larrick, R. P., and J. B. Soil. “Erratum: Intuitions about combining opinions: Misappreciation of the averaging principle (Management Science (January 2006) 52:1 (111-127) 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0518).” Management Science 52, no. 2 (February 1, 2006): 309–10. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1060.0518.
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  - Larrick, R. P., and J. B. Soll. “Intuitions about combining opinions: Misappreciation of the averaging principle.” Management Science 52, no. 1 (January 1, 2006): 111–27. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1050.0459.
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  - Soll, Jack B., and Joshua Klayman. “Overconfidence in interval estimates.” Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition 30, no. 2 (March 2004): 299–314. https://doi.org/10.1037/0278-7393.30.2.299.
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  - Klayman, J., J. B. Soll, C. González-Vallejo, and S. Barlas. “Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 79, no. 3 (September 1999): 216–47. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1999.2847.
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  - Soll, J. B. “Intuitive theories of information: beliefs about the value of redundancy.” Cognitive Psychology 38, no. 2 (March 1999): 317–46. https://doi.org/10.1006/cogp.1998.0699.
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  - Heath, C., and J. Soll. “Mental budgeting and consumer decisions.” Journal of Consumer Research 23, no. 1 (June 1, 1996): 40–52. https://doi.org/10.1086/209465.
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  - McKenzie, Craig R. M., and Jack B. Soll. “Which reference class is evoked?” Behavioral and Brain Sciences 19, no. 1 (March 1996): 34–35. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0140525x00041364.
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  - Soll, J. B. “Determinants of overconfidence and miscalibration: The roles of random error and ecological structure.” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 65, no. 2 (January 1, 1996): 117–37. https://doi.org/10.1006/obhd.1996.0011.
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- Book Sections
  - Larrick, R. P., J. B. Soll, and R. L. Keeney. “Designing better energy metrics for consumers.” In Energy Accounts: Architectural Representations of Energy, Climate, and the Future, 29–41, 2016. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315690995.
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  - Larrick, R. P., and J. B. Soll. “The social psychology of the wisdom of crowds.” In Social Judgment and Decision Making, 227–42, 2012. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203854150.
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  - Soll, J. B., J. Klayman, P. Juslin, and A. Winman. “Subjective confidence and the sampling of knowledge.” In In the Beginning There Is a Sample: Information Sampling as a Key to Understanding Adaptive Cognition, edited by K. Fiedler and P. Juslin, 153–82. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
  - Soll, J. B., K. L. Milkman, and J. W. Payne. “A User's Guide to Debiasing (In preparation).” In Wiley-Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, edited by G. Keren and G. Wu, n.d.
- Conference Papers
  - See, K. E., N. B. Rothman, and J. B. Soll. “Powerful and unpersuaded: The implications of power for confidence, advice taking, and accuracy.” In Academy of Management 2010 Annual Meeting Dare to Care: Passion and Compassion in Management Practice and Research, Aom 2010, 2010.
  - See, K. E., N. B. Rothman, and J. B. Soll. “Powerful and unpersuaded: The implications of power for confidence, advice taking, and accuracy.” In Academy of Management 2010 Annual Meeting Dare to Care: Passion and Compassion in Management Practice and Research, Aom 2010, 2010. https://doi.org/10.5465/ambpp.2010.54493606.
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  - Noguti, Valeria, and Jack B. Soll. “Inferences of Interpersonal Preference Similarity Based on Unrelated Product Categories.” In Advances in Consumer Research, Vol 35, edited by A. Y. Lee and D. Soman, 35:801–2. ASSOC CONSUMER RESEARCH, 2008.
    Link to Item
  - Soll, Jack B., and Joshua Klayman. “"Sampling, Overconfidence, and Consumer Decisions".” In Advances in Consumer Research Vol Xxxiv, edited by G. J. Fitzsimons, 34:268–69. ASSOC CONSUMER RESEARCH, 2007.
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Teaching & Mentoring
Recent Courses
Scholarly, Clinical, & Service Activities
Outreach & Engaged Scholarship
- Bass Connections Faculty Team Member . Developing Departmental Energy Reports and a Carbon Pricing Program for Duke University. August 2016 - May 2017 2016 - 2017

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Education, Training, & Certifications

Previous Appointments & Affiliations

In the News

Selected Publications

Academic Articles

Book Sections

Conference Papers

Recent Courses

Outreach & Engaged Scholarship