Scholars@Duke
Timur Kuran

Timur Kuran

Gorter Family Distinguished Professor of Islamic Studies
Economics
t.kuran@duke.edu
Box 90097, Department of Economics, Durham, NC 27708
Department of Economics, Box 90097, 213 Chapel Drive, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708

Selected Publications

Changes to our editorial board

Journal Article Journal of Comparative Economics · September 1, 2024 Full text Cite

Changes to JCE's board of associate editors

Journal Article Journal of Comparative Economics · March 1, 2023 Full text Cite

Zakat: Islam’s missed opportunity to limit predatory taxation

Journal Article Public Choice · March 1, 2020 Featured Publication One of Islam’s five canonical pillars is a predictable, fixed, and mildly progressive tax system called zakat. It was meant to finance various causes typical of a pre-modern government. Implicit in the entire transfer system was personal property rights as ... Full text Cite

THE LOGIC OF REVOLUTIONS: Rational Choice Perspectives

Chapter · January 1, 2019 However easily explicable in hindsight, revolutions are typically unforeseeable, because key determinants of individual decisions to join protests are unobservable. Coupled with the interdependence of individual choices, unobservability ensures that many r ... Full text Cite

Islam and economic performance: Historical and contemporary links

Journal Article Journal of Economic Literature · December 1, 2018 Featured Publication This essay critically evaluates the analytic literature concerned with causal connections between Islam and economic performance. It focuses on works since 1997, when this literature was last surveyed comprehensively. Among the findings are the following: ... Full text Cite

Islamic Economic Institutions

Chapter · January 1, 2018 The economic institutions of the classical Islamic world include Islamic contract law and the waqf, a form of trust. Until modern times, these two institutions were generally beneficial to economic performance. However, each had limitations that eventually ... Full text Cite

Statement by New Editors

Journal Article Journal of Comparative Economics · May 1, 2017 Full text Cite

Statement by New Editors

Journal Article Journal of Comparative Economics · February 1, 2017 Full text Cite

Legal roots of authoritarian rule in the middle east: Civic legacies of the islamic waqf

Journal Article American Journal of Comparative Law · July 1, 2016 In the legal system of the premodern Middle East, the closest thing to an autonomous private organization was the Islamic waqf. This non-state institution inhibited political participation, collective action, and rule of law, among other indicators of demo ... Full text Cite

Institutional Roots of Authoritarian Rule in the Middle East: Civic Legacies of the Islamic Waqf

Scholarly Edition · June 12, 2014 In the pre-modern Middle East the closest thing to an autonomous private organization was the Islamic waqf. This non-state institution inhibited political participation, collective action, and rule of law, among other indicators of democratization. It did ... Open Access Cite

Economic modernization in late British India: Hindu-Muslim differences

Journal Article Economic Development and Cultural Change · April 1, 2013 The article explores the historical origins of Muslim underrepresentation in the management of large Indian firms. Muslims found it relatively harder to pool capital within large and durable enterprises capable of exploiting the new technologies of the ind ... Full text Cite

The Political Consequences of Islam’s Economic Legacy

Journal Article Philosophy and Social Criticism · 2013 Cite

Religious Obstacles to Democratization in the Middle East: Past and Present

Journal Article The Wealth and Well-Being of Nations · 2013 Cite

The long divergence: How Islamic law held back the Middle East

Book · November 11, 2012 In the year 1000, the economy of the Middle East was at least as advanced as that of Europe. But by 1800, the region had fallen dramatically behind--in living standards, technology, and economic institutions. In short, the Middle East had failed to moderni ... Cite

Synergies between middle eastern economic history and the analytic social sciences

Journal Article International Journal of Middle East Studies · August 1, 2012 Full text Cite

Association Lecture—The Economic Roots of Political Underdevelopment in the Middle East: A Historical Perspective

Journal Article Southern Economic Journal · April 2012 Key institutions of the pre-modern Middle Eastern economy, all grounded in Islamic law, blocked the development of democratic institutions. This talk identifies three mechanisms that played critical roles. Islam's original tax system failed to produce las ... Cite

The economic roots of political underdevelopment in the middle east: A historical perspective

Journal Article Southern Economic Journal · April 1, 2012 Key institutions of the pre-modern Middle Eastern economy, all grounded in Islamic law, blocked the development of democratic institutions. This talk identifies three mechanisms that played critical roles. Islam's original tax system failed to produce last ... Full text Cite

public opinion

Chapter · January 1, 2012 Cite

economic theory

Chapter · January 1, 2012 Cite

West is Best? Why Civilizations Rise and Fall

Journal Article Foreign Affairs · January 2011 Cite

Islam and mammon: The economic predicaments of islamism

Book · December 16, 2010 The doctrine of "Islamic economics" entered debates over the social role of Islam in the mid-twentieth century. Since then it has pursued the goal of restructuring economies according to perceived Islamic teachings. Beyond its most visible practical achiev ... Cite

Modern Islam and the economy

Chapter · January 1, 2010 Introduction: Since the nineteenth century, when it became abundantly clear that the Islamic world had become economically underdeveloped with respect to Western Europe and its cultural offshoots on other continents, diverse thinkers have explored whether ... Full text Cite

Explaining the economic trajectories of civilizations: The systemic approach

Journal Article Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization · September 1, 2009 A civilization constitutes a durable social system of complementary traits. Some of the complementarities of any given civilization are between elements of "material" life and ones commonly treated as integral to "culture." Identifying the mechanisms respo ... Full text Cite

Preface: The economic impact of culture, religion and the law

Journal Article Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization · September 1, 2009 Full text Cite

Sous-déloppement économique au moyen-orient: Le rôle historique de la culture, des institutions et de la religion

Journal Article Afrique Contemporaine · November 4, 2008 Can worldwide disparities in levels of development be explained by institutional or cultural factors? In Timur Kuran's view, the belated development of the Middle East may be explained by structural factors embedded in Islamic institutions rather than in I ... Full text Cite

Cultural integration and its discontents

Journal Article Review of Economic Studies · January 1, 2008 A community's culture is defined by the preferences and equilibrium behaviours of its members. Contacts among communities alter individual cultures through two interrelated mechanisms: behavioural adaptations driven by pay-offs to coordination, and prefere ... Full text Cite

Sex Differences in Attitudes toward Discrimination

Journal Article Political Research Quarterly · 2008 Cite

Institutional Causes of Economic Underdevelopment in the Middle East: a Historical Perspective

Conference INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR · January 1, 2008 Link to item Cite

Alle radici del deficit imprenditorialità in Medio Oriente

Journal Article Biblioteca della libertà · 2007 Cite

The absence of the corporation in Islamic law: Origins and persistence

Journal Article American Journal of Comparative Law · January 1, 2005 Classical Islamic law recognizes only natural persons; it does not grant standing to corporations. This article explores why Islamic law did not develop a concept akin to the corporation, or borrow one from another legal system. It also identifies processe ... Full text Open Access Cite

The logic of financial westernization in the Middle East

Journal Article Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization · January 1, 2005 In the 19th century, financial reforms in the Middle East included the legalization of interest, the establishment of secular courts, and banking regulations, all based on Western models. Exploring why foreign institutions were transplanted, this article s ... Full text Cite

Perché il Medio Oriente è Economicamente Arretrato: Meccanismi Storici di Stagnazione Istituzionale

Journal Article QA: Rivista dell' Associazione Manlio Rossi-Doria · 2005 Cite

Expanding discrimination research: Beyond ethnicity and to the web

Journal Article Social Science Quarterly · September 1, 2004 This article aims to expand research about perceptions of discrimination both substantively and methodologically beyond the domains of race and ethnicity, relying partly on web-based surveys. Methods. We conducted parallel surveys over the telephone and th ... Full text Cite

The economic ascent of the Middle East's religious minorities: The role of Islamic legal pluralism

Journal Article Journal of Legal Studies · June 1, 2004 In the nineteenth century, the Middle East's Christian and Jewish minorities registered conspicuous economic advances relative to the Muslim majority. These advances were made possible by the choice of law available to non-Muslim subjects. Until the late e ... Full text Cite

Islamic statecraft and the middle east’s delayed modernization

Chapter · January 1, 2004 7. Islamic statecraft and the Middle East’s delayed modernization Timur Kuran Pre-modern states that ruled in the name of Islam are often characterized as absolutist. The implication is that they exploited their subjects and menaced foreigners with formida ... Full text Cite

Islamic redistribution through zakat historical record and modern realities

Conference · December 1, 2003 The year 1995 saw the publication of the proceedings of an international conference on zakat (alms) held five years earlier in Kuala Lumpur.1 The weighty volume's main theme is that today's zakat systems have a negligible impact on poverty alleviation-the ... Cite

The Islamic commercial crisis: Institutional roots of economic underdevelopment in the Middle East

Journal Article Journal of Economic History · June 1, 2003 During the second millennium, the Middle East's commerce with Western Europe fell increasingly under European domination. Two factors played critical roles. First, the Islamic inheritance system, by raising the costs of dissolving a partnership following a ... Full text Open Access Cite

Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation

Journal Article Stanford Law Review · January 1, 1999 An availability cascade is a self-reinforcing process of collective belief formation by which an expressed perception triggers a chain reaction that gives the perception increasing plausibility through its rising availability in public discourse. The drivi ... Full text Cite

Insincere Deliberation and Democratic Failure

Journal Article Critical Review · October 1998 Cite

The Vulnerability of the Arab state: Reflections on the Ayubi thesis

Journal Article Independent Review · July 1998 Cite

L’islam et le sous-developpement: Un vieux puzzle revisite

Journal Article Journal Des Economistes Et Des Etudes Humaines · January 1, 1998 Full text Cite

Ethnic norms and their transformation through reputational cascades

Journal Article Journal of Legal Studies · January 1, 1998 Ethnic norms are the ethnically symbolic behavioral codes that individuals must follow to retain social acceptance. They are sustained partly by sanctions that individuals impose on each other in trying to establish good credentials. This essay analyzes th ... Full text Cite

Islam and Underdevelopment: An Old Puzzle Revisited

Journal Article Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics · March 1997 The world's predominantly Muslim countries have long been underdeveloped. This paper classifies, critiques, and extends the mechanisms that have been proposed as explanations for the pattern. One mechanism involves the use of Islam to legitimize worldviews ... Cite

In defense of affirmative action - Bergmann,BR

Book Review JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE · March 1, 1997 Link to item Cite

Islamic economics and the clash of civilizations

Journal Article Middle Eastern Lectures · 1997 Cite

Private truths, public lies: The social consequences of preference falsification

Journal Article Constitutional Political Economy · January 1, 1997 Full text Cite

The Discontents of Islamic Economic Morality

Journal Article American Economic Review · May 1, 1996 Open Access Cite

Islamic Economics and the Islamic Subeconomy

Journal Article Journal of Economic Perspectives · November 1, 1995 Although Islamic economics was developed to serve cultural and political ends, efforts have been made to put its ideals into practice. There now exist Islamic banks, which claim to offer an interest-free alternative to conventional banking, and go ... Full text Cite

The Inevitability of Future Revolutionary Surprises

Journal Article American Journal of Sociology · May 1995 Full text Cite

Further reflections on the behavioral norms of Islamic economics

Journal Article Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization · January 1, 1995 Full text Cite

RELIGIOUS ECONOMICS AND THE ECONOMICS OF RELIGION

Journal Article JOURNAL OF INSTITUTIONAL AND THEORETICAL ECONOMICS-ZEITSCHRIFT FUR DIE GESAMTE STAATSWISSENSCHAFT · December 1, 1994 Link to item Cite

ISLAMIC IDENTITY AND DEVELOPMENT - STUDIES OF THE ISLAMIC PERIPHERY - REPLY

Journal Article INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES · February 1, 1994 Link to item Cite

Mitigating the tyranny of public opinion: Anonymous discourse and the ethic of sincerity

Journal Article Constitutional Political Economy · December 1, 1993 Public opinion breeds tyranny by forcing individuals to refrain from voicing their genuine thoughts and feelings. The means used to mitigate such tyranny include the separation of governmental powers, the ethic of tolerance, and the secret ballot. Yet neit ... Full text Cite

Seeds of racial explosion

Journal Article Society · September 1, 1993 Full text Cite

ISLAM AND THE ECONOMIC-CHALLENGE - CHAPRA,MU

Journal Article JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE · September 1, 1993 Link to item Cite

The Unthinkable and the Unthought

Journal Article Rationality and Society · January 1, 1993 When people misrepresent their beliefs in response to social pressures, public discourse gets impoverished. Because public discourse is a basic determinant of individual perceptions and understandings, a by-product is the distortion of private knowledge. T ... Full text Cite

Explanatory Success Does Not Imply Predictive Power

Journal Article Contemporary Sociology · January 1992 Full text Cite

COGNITIVE LIMITATIONS AND PREFERENCE EVOLUTION

Journal Article JOURNAL OF INSTITUTIONAL AND THEORETICAL ECONOMICS-ZEITSCHRIFT FUR DIE GESAMTE STAATSWISSENSCHAFT · June 1, 1991 Link to item Cite

Islamic economic co-operation

Journal Article Journal of Comparative Economics · June 1991 Full text Cite

The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989

Journal Article World Politics · January 1, 1991 Full text Cite

THE CEMENT OF SOCIETY - A STUDY OF SOCIAL-ORDER - ELSTER,J

Journal Article JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE · September 1, 1990 Link to item Cite

ON THE NOTION OF ECONOMIC-JUSTICE IN CONTEMPORARY ISLAMIC THOUGHT - REPLY

Journal Article INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MIDDLE EAST STUDIES · 1990 Full text Cite

Private and public preferences

Journal Article Economics and Philosophy · January 1, 1990 Full text Cite

Theoretical studies in islamic banking and finance

Journal Article Journal of Comparative Economics · September 1989 Full text Cite

Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution

Journal Article Public Choice · April 1, 1989 A feature shared by certain major revolutions is that they were not anticipated. Here is an explanation, which hinges on the observation that people who come to dislike their government are apt to hide their desire for change as long as the opposition seem ... Full text Cite

On the notion of economic justice in contemporary islamic thought

Journal Article International Journal of Middle East Studies · January 1, 1989 Full text Open Access Cite

PIONEERS IN DEVELOPMENT - MEIER,GM

Book Review JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE · December 1, 1988 Link to item Cite

The tenacious past: Theories of personal and collective conservatism

Journal Article Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization · January 1, 1988 A number of theories have been developed to explain why societies do not always adapt to changing conditions. These are critiqued here, with an emphasis on their substantive and methodological differences. Some theories ascribe lack of adaptation to person ... Full text Cite

Preference Falsification, Policy Continuity and Collective Conservatism

Journal Article The Economic Journal · September 1987 Full text Cite

Chameleon voters and public choice

Journal Article Public Choice · January 1, 1987 A model is presented of an open-voting public choice process that features pressure groups vying for society's support. Individuals choose what policy to advocate on the basis of their private preferences, which are those they would express in a secret bal ... Full text Cite

BETTING ON IDEAS - WARS, INVENTION, INFLATION - BRENNER,R

Book Review JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE · December 1, 1986 Link to item Cite

Price adjustment costs, anticipated inflation, and output

Journal Article Quarterly Journal of Economics · January 1, 1986 Full text Open Access Cite

The Economic System In Contemporary Islamic Thought: Interpretation And Assessment

Journal Article International Journal of Middle East Studies · January 1, 1986 Full text Open Access Cite

ANTICIPATED INFLATION AND AGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT: THE CASE OF COSTLY PRICE ADJUSTMENT

Journal Article Economic Inquiry · January 1, 1986 Even if inflation is perfectly anticipated, a firm that finds nominal price adjustments sufficiently costly will reset its price at multi‐period intervals. Consequently, its average output will change in a direction that depends on properties of its profit ... Full text Cite

Sour grapes: Studies in the subversion of rationality

Book Review Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization · September 1984 Full text Cite

Asymmetric Price Rigidity and Inflationary Bias.

Journal Article American Economic Review · June 1983 Open Access Cite

Behavioral norms in the Islamic doctrine of economics. A critique

Journal Article Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization · January 1, 1983 At the heart of the contemporary Islamic doctrine of economics lies a set of behavioral norms derived from the first Islamic society in seventh century Arabia. This paper demonstrates that these norms cannot be expected to serve as the spearhead of a drive ... Full text Cite

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES IN SEMI-INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES - BALASSA,B

Journal Article JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE · January 1, 1983 Link to item Cite