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Tim Bollerslev

Juanita and Clifton Kreps Distinguished Professor of Economics, in Trinity College of Arts and Sciences
Economics
Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708-0097
228E Social Sciences, Box 90097, Durham, NC 27708

Overview


Professor Bollerslev conducts research in the areas of time-series econometrics, financial econometrics, and empirical asset pricing finance. He is particularly well known for his developments of econometric models and procedures for analyzing and forecasting financial market volatility. Much of Bollerslev’s recent research has focused on the analysis of newly available high-frequency intraday, or tick-by-tick, financial data and so-called realized volatility measures, macroeconomic news announcement effects, and the pricing of volatility risk. Recent reviews of his work are available in the two Handbook chapters "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting” (with Torben G. Andersen, Peter Christoffersen and Francis X. Diebold), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, (eds. Graham Elliott, Clive W.J. Granger and Allan Timmermann), 2006, and "Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement” (with Torben G. Andersen and Francis X. Diebold), in Handbook of Financial Econometrics, (eds. Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Lars P. Hansen), 2009.

Current Duke Appointments & Affiliations


Juanita and Clifton Kreps Distinguished Professor of Economics, in Trinity College of Arts and Sciences · 1998 - Present Economics, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences
Professor of Economics · 1998 - Present Economics, Trinity College of Arts & Sciences

Recent News Items


Published September 5, 2018
Tim Bollerslev Awarded Carlsberg Foundation Research Prize
Published June 28, 2016
Economists Celebrate 30th Anniversary of Bollerslev’s GARCH Model

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Recent Scholarly Works


Forecasting and Managing Correlation Risks

Journal article Management Science · April 24, 2026 We propose a novel and easy-to-implement framework for forecasting time-varying correlations based on a large set of salient realized correlation features and the sparsity-encouraging Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator technique. Consi ... Full text Open Access Cite

Optimal Candlestick-Based Spot Volatility Estimation: New Tricks and Feasible Inference Procedures

Journal article Journal of Financial Econometrics · January 1, 2026 We contribute to the growing literature on high-frequency spot volatility estimation by deriving a new integral representation for the recently introduced asymptotic minimum risk equivariant (AMRE) candlestick-based class of estimators. Our new theoretical ... Full text Cite

Intraday Market Return Predictability Culled from the Factor Zoo

Journal article Management Science · September 1, 2025 We provide strong empirical evidence for time-series predictability of the intraday return on the aggregate market portfolio by exploiting lagged high-frequency crosssectional returns on the factor zoo. Our results rely on the use of modern machine-learnin ... Full text Cite
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Education


University of California, San Diego · 1986 Ph.D.
University of Aarhus (Denmark) · 1983 M.S.

External Links


Personal Website