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Economic shocks and crime: Evidence from the Brazilian trade liberalization

Publication ,  Journal Article
Dix-Carneiro, R; Soares, RR; Ulyssea, G
Published in: American Economic Journal: Applied Economics
October 1, 2018

This paper studies the effect of changes in economic conditions on crime. We exploit the 1990s trade liberalization in Brazil as a natural experiment generating exogenous shocks to local economies. We document that regions exposed to larger tariff reductions experienced a temporary increase in crime following liberalization. Next, we investigate through what channels the trade-induced economic shocks may have affected crime. We show that the shocks had significant effects on potential determinants of crime, such as labor market conditions, public goods provision, and income inequality. We propose a novel framework exploiting the distinct dynamic responses of these variables to obtain bounds on the effect of labor market conditions on crime. Our results indicate that this channel accounts for 75 to 93 percent of the effect of the trade-induced shocks on crime.

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Published In

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

DOI

EISSN

1945-7790

ISSN

1945-7782

Publication Date

October 1, 2018

Volume

10

Issue

4

Start / End Page

158 / 195

Related Subject Headings

  • 3801 Applied economics
  • 1402 Applied Economics
 

Citation

APA
Chicago
ICMJE
MLA
NLM
Dix-Carneiro, R., Soares, R. R., & Ulyssea, G. (2018). Economic shocks and crime: Evidence from the Brazilian trade liberalization. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 10(4), 158–195. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170080
Dix-Carneiro, R., R. R. Soares, and G. Ulyssea. “Economic shocks and crime: Evidence from the Brazilian trade liberalization.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 10, no. 4 (October 1, 2018): 158–95. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.20170080.
Dix-Carneiro R, Soares RR, Ulyssea G. Economic shocks and crime: Evidence from the Brazilian trade liberalization. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 2018 Oct 1;10(4):158–95.
Dix-Carneiro, R., et al. “Economic shocks and crime: Evidence from the Brazilian trade liberalization.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, vol. 10, no. 4, Oct. 2018, pp. 158–95. Scopus, doi:10.1257/app.20170080.
Dix-Carneiro R, Soares RR, Ulyssea G. Economic shocks and crime: Evidence from the Brazilian trade liberalization. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics. 2018 Oct 1;10(4):158–195.

Published In

American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

DOI

EISSN

1945-7790

ISSN

1945-7782

Publication Date

October 1, 2018

Volume

10

Issue

4

Start / End Page

158 / 195

Related Subject Headings

  • 3801 Applied economics
  • 1402 Applied Economics