Are the returns to technological change in health care declining?

Whether the U.S. health care system supports too much technological change-so that new technologies of low value are adopted, or worthwhile technologies become overused-is a controversial question. This paper analyzes the marginal value of technological change for elderly heart attack patients in 1984-1990. It estimates the additional benefits and costs of treatment by hospitals that are likely to adopt new technologies first or use them most intensively. If the overall value of the additional treatments is declining, then the benefits of treatment by such intensive hospitals relative to other hospitals should decline, and the additional costs of treatment by such hospitals should rise. To account for unmeasured changes in patient mix across hospitals that might bias the results, instrumental-variables methods are used to estimate the incremental mortality benefits and costs. The results do not support the view that the returns to technological change are declining. However, the incremental value of treatment by intensive hospitals is low throughout the study period, supporting the view that new technologies are overused.

Duke Scholars

Author Mark B McClellan Fuqua School of Business