Bayesian Theory, History, Applications, and Contemporary Directions

Bayes' theorem is a simple method for reversing conditional probabilities in straightforward probability problems. The theorem's application was expanded to become a full-fledged paradigm of statistics that provides a coherent, but subjective, method for updating scientific knowledge. For more than a century, Bayesian methodology was controversial in academia but used extensively in practical applications in the military and business. Improved computing capabilities, coupled with advances in estimation methods and increased applicability to contemporary statistical problems have made it a mainstream methodology. In recent years, Bayesian applications have become too numerous to discuss in detail. Instead, general directions are discussed.

Duke Scholars

Author Scott Michael Lynch Sociology