The Media Trade Press as Technology Forecaster: A Case Study of the VCR'S Impact on Broadcasting

This paper assesses how the broadcasting and advertising trade press performed in their role as technology forecaster, using the introduction of the VCR and its potential impact on broadcasting as a case study. An examination of the forecasts made within the broadcasting and advertising trade press during the early stages of the VCR's development and diffusion indicates that the advertising trade press proved much more active and much more accurate in forecasting the future of the VCR. The results also indicate the importance of integrating technological and social factors for constructing accurate forecasts.

Duke Scholars

Author Philip Michael Napoli Sanford School of Public Policy