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Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.

Publication ,  Journal Article
Peterson, ML; Doak, DF; Morris, WF
Published in: Global change biology
March 2019

Populations of many species are genetically adapted to local historical climate conditions. Yet most forecasts of species' distributions under climate change have ignored local adaptation (LA), which may paint a false picture of how species will respond across their geographic ranges. We review recent studies that have incorporated intraspecific variation, a potential proxy for LA, into distribution forecasts, assess their strengths and weaknesses, and make recommendations for how to improve forecasts in the face of LA. The three methods used so far (species distribution models, response functions, and mechanistic models) reflect a trade-off between data availability and the ability to rigorously demonstrate LA to climate. We identify key considerations for incorporating LA into distribution forecasts that are currently missing from many published studies, including testing the spatial scale and pattern of LA, the confounding effects of LA to nonclimatic or biotic drivers, and the need to incorporate empirically based dispersal or gene flow processes. We suggest approaches to better evaluate these aspects of LA and their effects on species-level forecasts. In particular, we highlight demographic and dynamic evolutionary models as promising approaches to better integrate LA into forecasts, and emphasize the importance of independent model validation. Finally, we urge closer examination of how LA will alter the responses of central vs. marginal populations to allow stronger generalizations about changes in distribution and abundance in the face of LA.

Duke Scholars

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Published In

Global change biology

DOI

EISSN

1365-2486

ISSN

1354-1013

Publication Date

March 2019

Volume

25

Issue

3

Start / End Page

775 / 793

Related Subject Headings

  • Spatial Analysis
  • Population Dynamics
  • Models, Biological
  • Forecasting
  • Ecology
  • Climate Change
  • Biological Variation, Population
  • Adaptation, Physiological
  • 41 Environmental sciences
  • 37 Earth sciences
 

Citation

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Peterson, M. L., Doak, D. F., & Morris, W. F. (2019). Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change. Global Change Biology, 25(3), 775–793. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14562
Peterson, Megan L., Daniel F. Doak, and William F. Morris. “Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.Global Change Biology 25, no. 3 (March 2019): 775–93. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14562.
Peterson ML, Doak DF, Morris WF. Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change. Global change biology. 2019 Mar;25(3):775–93.
Peterson, Megan L., et al. “Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change.Global Change Biology, vol. 25, no. 3, Mar. 2019, pp. 775–93. Epmc, doi:10.1111/gcb.14562.
Peterson ML, Doak DF, Morris WF. Incorporating local adaptation into forecasts of species' distribution and abundance under climate change. Global change biology. 2019 Mar;25(3):775–793.
Journal cover image

Published In

Global change biology

DOI

EISSN

1365-2486

ISSN

1354-1013

Publication Date

March 2019

Volume

25

Issue

3

Start / End Page

775 / 793

Related Subject Headings

  • Spatial Analysis
  • Population Dynamics
  • Models, Biological
  • Forecasting
  • Ecology
  • Climate Change
  • Biological Variation, Population
  • Adaptation, Physiological
  • 41 Environmental sciences
  • 37 Earth sciences